History
Saturday’s matchup brings the 45th Test match between these two proud rugby nations. The history of this fixture significantly favours New Zealand, who have won 34 of 44. However, things have been very even in recent encounters, with an All Blacks win (2024), an England win (2019) and a draw (2022) being the result of the last three games. New Zealand’s record against England at Eden Park is also dominant, having won five of the six games there, including four on the bounce heading into this weekend’s clash. The visitors’ lone win in Auckland came in 1973.
Form
The All Blacks would have breathed a collective sigh of relief when the final whistle went at Forsyth Barr Stadium last week, surviving an England attack after winning a dubious ruck penalty. Even skipper Scott Barrett admitted as much in the post-game interview, but a win is a win, with the Scott Robertson era starting off with a victory. The game was played at a frantic pace early on, leading to three tries inside the opening 25 minutes, but England started to wrestle control of the game before the hosts finished strong to claim a narrow win. Beauden Barrett made a positive impact when he entered the game off the bench, while Damian McKenzie looked dangerous at first five and Ardie Savea gave a trademark game consisting of strong runs and jackals.
England will be wondering what could have been — not only because of Nika Amashukeli’s late penalty decision, but also because of Marcus Smith’s missed conversions and penalty goals. The first five left eight points on the tee, and, perhaps with the exception of the missed conversions, were all kicks that he would have been expecting to make. That’s a tough pill to swallow for Steve Borthwick, but there were encouraging signs for his team, especially in the pack where his troops got the better of the All Blacks on multiple occasions, including some big wins at scrum time and in lineouts. At the back, George Furbank was a constant threat.
Teams
New Zealand: 1 Ethan de Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Scott Barrett, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 6 Samipeni Finau, 7 Dalton Papali’i, 8 Ardie Savea, 9 Finlay Christie, 10 Damian McKenzie, 11 Mark Tele’a, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Rieko Ioane, 14 Sevu Reece, 15 Stephen Perofeta. Reserves: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Beauden Barrett.
England: 1 Fin Baxter, 2 Jamie George, 3 Will Stuart, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 George Martin, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 7 Sam Underhill, 8 Ben Earl, 9 Alex Mitchell, 10 Marcus Smith, 11 Tommy Freeman, 12 Ollie Lawrence, 13 Henry Slade, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 15 George Furbank. Reserves: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Ben Spencer, 22 Fin Smith, 23 Ollie Sleightholme.
Scott Robertson was obviously pleased with what he saw from his 23 last week, making just one injury-forced change for the second Test. A knee injury to TJ Perenara sees him drop out of the 23, meaning Finlay Christie starts at halfback and Cortez Ratima is a chance for his All Blacks debut off the bench.
Steve Borthwick has also made just the one change to his squad, also coming out of necessity. Joe Marler departed the game early last week due to a foot injury, and that has seen young Fin Baxter join the starting team for the first time in his career. Bevan Rodd joins the bench.
Stats That Matter
- The last three games between these teams have resulted in one win for New Zealand (2024), one win for England (2019) and one draw (2022)
- The All Blacks have won five of six against England at Eden Park
- The average scoreline at Eden Park in Test matches between these nations is 27-14 in New Zealand’s favour
- The All Blacks haven’t lost at Eden Park since 1994
- England have covered the spread in their last four games
- Since 2014, just one of the eight meetings between New Zealand and England has exceeded 50 total points
The Verdict
We get almost a carbon copy from last week’s clash, as both Scott Robertson and Steve Borthwick have stuck fat with their teams from last week, barring the one injury-forced change for each team. That makes for an intriguing showdown, but there is one major difference this time around — the game is being held at Eden Park. Since 1994, the All Blacks have won 48, drawn two and lost zero at their Auckland fortress and there was enough in last week’s game — especially in the final 15 minutes — to suggest that the hosts had finally clicked. That was partially down to the injection of the bench, but it was also a tactical overhaul which saw the All Blacks overcome England’s suffocating rush defence. With that figured out going into Saturday, this game will be won comfortably by the hosts in the end.
The Prediction
New Zealand by 15
Bets
Best: New Zealand -10.5 ($1.87)
Value: New Zealand 11-20 ($3.70)
Same Game Multi: New Zealand -10.5 / Under 51.5 / Anytime Try Scorer — Rieko Ioane ($9.90)