We’re down to two with Alexander Zverev one win away from ending his reign as the ‘best player never to win a Grand Slam’. He was dominant on serve yet again in his semi final win over Mensik and has now won at least 60% of 2nd serve points in all six matches played. It has translated to holding serve in 93% of games and creates a very difficult path to victory for Cobolli. The Italian was handed a free passage into his maiden major final after his countryman Matteo Arnaldi withdrew from the match due to illness. He will be fresh as a result but it could see him make a slower start than expected.
This will be the 5th meeting between them with the H2H currently reading 3-1 in Zverev’s favour. Interestingly, all four of those clashes have taken place in the last year. The pair met in the 3rd Round here 12 months ago with Zverev posting a dominant win 6-2 7-6 6-1. The German was able to generate 6 breaks of serve and won 60% of 2nd serve points – in line with what we have seen from him in the last fortnight. Zverev followed that up with a straight sets win on grass in Halle a few weeks later. Their next two battles took place during this season’s clay court swing leading into the French Open. Cobolli’s one and only win in this matchup came in Munich in a match where Zverev failed to serve a single ace. It didn’t take long for parody to be restored two weeks later in Madrid where he German thundered down 12 aces in a crushing 6-1 6-4 win.
With respect to experience Zverev has an enormous edge. This is his fourth major final and unlike the last two he will not be facing Alcaraz or Sinner. Instead, he will be a firm favourite and facing a player that he has been very comfortable with against in the recent past. There has been talk of potential nerves for Zverev since Sinner and Djokovic were knocked out but there have no signs of it in his recent matches. He has continued to hold serve with ease and we can pencil him in for 75% of 1st serves made and 60% of 2nd serve points one. Those numbers will make the mountain that Cobolli must climb bigger than Everest. Zverev will break through for his first Grand Slam title in style!
Best Bet: Zverev -5.5 ($1.92)
Value: Set 1 Over 10.5 games ($2.85)
Set Betting: Zverev 3-0 ($2.25