NRL Tips & Preview | Round 26

The Broncos have once again found themselves mired in controversy with Adam Reynolds denied a Suncorp farewell by coach Michael Maguire, forcing Reynolds to change course and say he ruled himself out. It has seen Reece Walsh caught in the rip. It is clear though that Maguire is still working the Broncos hard to win and they should have too much talent for Melbourne, even with Jahrome Hughes named to return. The Storm had dominated the Broncos for a long time but Brisbane have won the last three clashes while covering five of the last seven. Brisbane are 10-4 against the spread off a win and have covered eight of 11 off scoring 30 or more. Melbourne are 4-13 against the spread in night games while they have covered just one of eight off scoring 14 or fewer. There is value in Brisbane this week.
Ezra Mam has five tries in his last five games and operates against the Storm’s weakest edge. Harry Grant has three tries in his last 10 games and three in nine games against the Broncos.

Tips

Best: Brisbane +2.5 ($1.90)
Next: Brisbane 1-12 ($3.30)
Tryscorer: Ezra Mam ($14 First, $2.65 Anytime)
SGM: Ezra Mam Try/Harry Grant Try ($6.96)

It is stunning to see Manly so short given their form drop over the backend of the season. They had dropped six straight and topped 20 in just one of those before a shock 44-24 win over Newcastle that really turned on a key sin bin. They are an absolute take-on team this week, only solidified by the fact that they cover at 40% when favoured and at 41% off a win. They have also covered just four of 12 at Brookvale. The Dragons have covered four of their last five night games and have a 19-12 cover record off a loss of 13-plus. They have also covered seven of nine when an outsider of 6.5 or more. The Dragons can very much win this game. Tyrell Sloan has scored in seven of his last nine games and is an elite finisher. Hamish Stewart has had a real impact since moving to an edge with three tries in his last six games.

Tips

Best: St George Illawarra +8.5 ($1.85)
Next: St George Illawarra Win ($2.90)
Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($10.50 First, $2.05 Anytime)
SGM: Tyrell Sloan Try/Hamish Stewart Try ($6.79)

There is plenty on the line in this one with Penrith in the throes of a minor premiership battle while Canterbury need to win out and hope for results to return to the finals. Canterbury are a huge chance in this having thumped Penrith earlier in the season. Penrith are really a long way below their best at present and this is a tough spot for them with a 3-10 cover record as a favourite of at least eight points. Penrith have also covered just two of 10 against bottom nine teams. While the Bulldogs are a very good bet, the under seems the top play. Night games are going under at 67%. The under is 47-29 in Penrith night games while it hits at 61.2% in Canterbury games under lights. The under is 26-18 when Penrith play a team outside the Top 8 and 15-8 when Canterbury are off scoring 30-plus. The under is one of the better bets of Round 26. Matt Burton has five tries in his last seven games since his shift to the centres. Lachlan Galvin has eight tries this season and has been one of Canterbury’s best tryscoring options this year.

Tips

Best: Under 40.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canterbury +8.5 ($1.90)
Tryscorer: Matt Burton ($17 First, $3.40 Anytime)
SGM: Matt Burton Try/Lachlan Galvin Try ($14.20)

South Sydney have completely dominated Gold Coast over a long period of time and should be able to put on a number against a Titans team already looking for the end of the campaign. The Bunnies should get two huge emotional kicks with Latrell Mitchell set to return and Jai Arrow being able to play the kick off as he looks to get to 100 games. The Rabbitohs have won the last 10 against the Titans while they have won 16 of the last 18. The Bunnies have covered seven straight, scoring 30 in six of those. The Rabbits have won 11 on the trot at CBus. With Souths covering eight of 11 against bottom five teams and Gold Coast 4-9 against the spread as a home underdog, the Bunnies are the way to bet this game. Cody Walker has four tries in his last eight games while he has seven tries in 10 games against the Titans. Alex Johnston has a remarkable 28 tries in 19 games this season with seven multi-try games this season including in two of his last three.

Tips

Best: South Sydney -8.5 ($1.90)
Next: South Sydney 19+ ($3.20)
Tryscorer: Cody Walker ($17 First, $2.85 Anytime)
SGM: Cody Walker Try/Alex Johnston 2+ Tries ($7.57)

James Tedesco has once again been named for the Roosters but once again a question mark hangs over his availability and there are real queries over how well the Roosters can play against quality teams without him. The Roosters were shameful last week in their loss to the Tigers, playing entitled and guileless football. The Dolphins have not really been mentioned as a legitimate title chance but they are a quality team currently sitting in fourth. The Roosters are a poor 9-18 against the spread against Top 4 teams. It is the other way for the Dolphins, who are 14-9 against the number against Top 4 teams. The Dolphins are 8-2 against the number when an underdog of at least a try while they have covered 14 of 21 off conceding 14 or fewer. The Dolphins are a quality play. The Roosters are most vulnerable on their left edge and Jack Bostock has 30 tries in 52 top grade games. Selwyn Cobbo has been in sublime tryscoring form with 13 tries in his last 10 games with a Dally M Team of the Year position on its way.

Tips

Best: Dolphins +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins Win ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Jack Bostock ($16 First, $3 Anytime)
SGM: Jack Bostock Try/Selwyn Cobbo try ($5.52)

There should be plenty of points on the card when the Cowboys host the Tigers in the Super Saturday encore. Two teams have rarely produced high scores as consistently as these two when they square off. The over is 22-10 in this matchup since 2009 while it has hit in nine straight. The last seven have reached at least 60 points with the last four in Townsville reaching at least 53. This is a big over spot for the Cowboys. The over is 15-10 when the Cowboys play a bottom five team and is 19-12 when the Cowboys are off scoring 30 or more. The over also hits at 64% when there is an interstate underdog of 12.5 or more off a win. Bet the over and get laddering on alternate totals. Jake Clifford is having his best tryscoring season with eight tries in 21 games. He has three tries in his last six games. Jeremiah Nanai loves playing the Wests Tigers with nine tries in eight games, failing to score at least one just once.

Tips

Best: Over 52.5 ($1.90)
Next: 61+ Points ($3.05)
Tryscorer: Jake Clifford ($17 First, $3 Anytime)
SGM: Jake Clifford Try/Jeremiah Nanai ($6.76)

New Zealand will be looking to lead the premiership in consecutive weeks for the first time in their history this week and go in heavily favoured against Newcastle but this is a danger game where they are spotting too big a number. The Warriors are a poor 4-17 against the spread when favoured by at least a try at Mt Smart while they are 16-27 against the number when favoured by a try. Newcastle have covered five straight playing interstate and their last three when an underdog of at least six points. The Knights were poor last week but 11.5 points is very disrespectful. Newcastle can win this. Fletcher Hunt is a quality finisher who has 14 tries in 24 games as a starter. Jacob Laban has been in super tryscoring form with tries in three of his last four games.

Tips

Best: Newcastle +11.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle Win ($3.75)
Tryscorer: Fletcher Hunt ($11 First, $2.20 Anytime)
SGM: Fletcher Hunt Try/Jacob Laban Try ($6.42)

Cronulla have made their bones out of beating up on teams at the bottom end of the ladder and with the Sharks currently on the outside of the Top 4 looking in, they will be focused on running up a big score. The Sharks are the second highest scoring team this year while Parramatta have conceded at least 28 in their last three. The Sharks are 32-16 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8 while they are 23-15 against the spread in day games. The Eels cover at just 36% when playing a Top 8 team while they are 29-36 against the number as an underdog. Cronulla are an elite bet laying 6.5 points this week. Teig Wilton is having his best tryscoring season with eight tries in 20 matches. Sione Katoa comes off one of the all-time great finishes and he has four tries in his last four games against the Eels.

Tips

Best: Cronulla -6.5 ($1.96)
Next: Cronulla 13+ ($2.65)
Tryscorer: Teig Wilton ($23 First, $3.70 Anytime)
SGM: Teig Wilton Try/Sione Katoa Try ($4.74)