NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 26

Wyatt Raymond

• Brisbane are 3-4 with a 3-4 cover record
• Melbourne are 3-2 with a 2-3 cover record
• Interstate faves cover at 60%
• The over is 5-2 in Brisbane games
• Night games go under at 57%

Wyatt Raymond has no real angles at play in this match though interstate favourites do have a very good record on his whistle.

Ref Lean: No Lean

Nick Pelgrave

This is Nick Pelgrave’s NRL debut so no lean.

Ref Lean: No Lean

Gerard Sutton

• Penrith are 20-8 with a 16-12 cover record
• Canterbury are 6-10 with an 8-8 cover record
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 56%
• Favourites of 8 or more cover at 58%
• The under is on a 14-3 run in Sutton games

Big favourites tend to thrive when Gerard Sutton is in the middle while the Panthers have a very strong record under his direction. Sutton games have been on an obscene under run.

Ref Lean: Penrith -8.5 @ $1.90 and Under 40.5 @ $1.85

Liam Kennedy

• Gold Coast are 2-9 with a 6-5 cover record
• Souths are 3-6 with a 3-6 cover record
• Faves of 6.5 or more cover at 56%
• The over hits at 58% when an interstate underdog of 4+
• The over hits at 59% when a Top 8 teams plays a Bottom 9 team

This is a game that projects to be an over one with Liam Kennedy having two big over trends at play.

Ref Lean: Over 53.5 @ $1.90

Todd Smith

• The Roosters are 8-7 with an 8-7 cover record
• The Dolphins are 10-4 with a 10-4 cover record
• The over is 10-4 in Dolphins games
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games

The over is typically the way to bet Todd Smith games – it is currently on a three-game streak – and the Dolphins have been particularly strong on the over.

Ref Lean: Over 47.5 @ $1.90

Grant Atkins

• The Cowboys are 6-7 with a 5-8 cover record
• The Tigers are 5-8 with a 7-6 cover record
• Home teams cover at 58%
• The over is 9-4 in Cowboys games
• The over hits at 64% when there is a favourite of 12 or more

The over has hit in eight straight Grant Atkins games when a team is favoured by 12 or more and the Cowboys have a strong over record when he is in the middle. 

Ref Lean: Over 52.5 @ $1.90

Adam Gee

• The Warriors are 6-10 with a 9-7 cover record
• The Knights are 4-6 with a 7-3 cover record
• The under is 15-7 in 2026
• The under hits at 58% when there is a double digit favourite

Adam Gee is a strong under official having a very strong under year and it is particularly strong when there is a double digit favourite.

Ref Lean: Under 48.5 @ $1.90

Ashley Klein

• The Eels are 15-10 with a 17-8 cover record
• The Sharks are 12-13 with a 12-13 cover record
• Favourites cover at 55%
• The under is 18-7 in Sharks games

There are no angles at play with Ashley Klein this week though the Eels and the under were close to being plays.

Ref Lean: No Lean