Southland were well beaten by Tasman last week, slumping to a 17-46 defeat in Nelson. All was well for the first hour, as the teams traded blows, as the game shaped up to be a thriller in the final 60 minutes. However, the Stags were essentially lifeless in the final quarter, coming up fruitless on the scoreboard while conceding five tries to throw away any chance of a win or a bonus point. Southland struggled to generate go-forward as the game went on and they also had their issues at lineout time, but their 41 missed tackles was the biggest factor in the loss. Glen Vaihu was dangerous in the carry, Nic Shearer was full of life at halfback with a try and a try assist, and Fletcher Morgan had his moments on attack. but was poor defensively. Sean Withy was the main man defensively with 23 tackles, but there were few other standouts on that end.
Hawke’s Bay’s unbeaten start to the season continued in Round 4, thumping Manawatū 59-17. They are averaging over 50 points scored per game and have an average winning margin of 26.3 points in what has been a dominant start to the season, and they impressed yet again on Friday. It took a while for the Magpies to really get going, as they trailed 7-12 at the 35-minute mark, before Hunter Morrison and Nic Benn went bang-bang before the break to put HB up by five points. The excellent Morrison struck again moments into the second half, before the hosts really ran away with the game with a barrage of tries. Morrison was the standout once more, with all sorts of innovation on attack while also providing a stable option at the lineout, and Frank Lochore was reliable across the park. Bailyn Sullivan, Lukas Ripley, Darby Lancaster and Harry Godfrey were all influential in the backs, helping the Magpies to another big win.
Both teams have benched or are completely without some firepower for this game, with the hosts missing Mitch Dunshea, while the Magpies will be without Godfrey and have benched the red-hot Hunter Morrison. That takes a little bit of shimmer out of this game but I still expect Southland to put up a fight at home. Their last outing at Rugby Park produced an excellent comeback win over Waikato and the returns of Clem Halaholo and Michael Manson back into the starting lineup give them some more weapons. Hawke’s Bay will end up being too good, but I don’t expect it to come easily for the unbeaten Magpies.
Best
Southland +22.5 ($1.90)
Value
Hawke’s Bay 11-20 ($3.80)
Try Scorer
Bailyn Sullivan ($12 First, $1.80 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Bailyn Sullivan Try / Glen Vaihu Try / Cooper Flanders Try ($15)
Auckland’s flat start to 2026 continued in Round 4, as they lost the Battle of the Bridge 19-27. It was largely a tit-for-tat game, but it always felt like North Harbour were on the front foot, as sloppiness again crept into the Aucklanders’ game. They gave away 21 turnovers and many of them came in important parts of the field, as some of their youngsters looked to be caught up in the pressure. Rico Simpson was partially responsible with four turnovers, but was also one of Auckland’s standouts on attack, with a couple of try assists and some important carries, and the same went for Payton Spencer who was hot and cold. Xavi Taele, Tai Cribb and Harvey Cordukes toiled away but there were few positives again for Auckland.
Bay of Plenty utilised a strong first half to record a 28-24 victory over Taranaki. The win improved their record to 2-2, with three consecutive tries in the first half proving to be the difference. There was drama in the second half as Lucas Cashmore was sin-binned for a deliberate knock-on, allowing the Bulls to get within two points, before the ever-impressive Nikora Broughton dotted down to make it an unassailable nine-point buffer. Despite his first-half yellow card, Broughton was the pick of the bunch for the Steamers again, tirelessly working and being a constant threat on attack, while Veveni Lasaqa and Seuseu Naitoa Ah Kuoi got through a stack of work and Reon Paul and Cole Forbes had dangerous touches.
Ofa Tu’ungafasi’s All Blacks call-up sees Angus Ta’avao come into the starting team, while Alex Harford starts for the resting Stephen Perofeta in what are a couple of big changes. That already has the hosts on the back foot in this game and with BOP naming a steady and strong team, it’s hard to see the hosts having too much success here. They’re leaking 35 points per game this season and the Steamers will run riot on attack, making the visitors good value as slim favourites.
Best
Bay of Plenty -2.5 ($1.87)
Value
Bay of Plenty 13+ ($3.20)
Try Scorer
Reon Paul ($17 First, $2.35 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Reon Paul Try / Xavi Taele Try / Joe Johnston Try ($21.20)
Taranaki came up short against Bay of Plenty last week in a 14-28 loss. It was a frustrating result for the Bulls, as they failed to capitalise on two BOP yellow cards, getting outscored 5-14 in those 20 minutes to in what were a couple of crucial periods of play. Taranaki’s opening half also did them no favours. Seta Tamanivalu scored in the opening five minutes but the hosts scored three tries on the trot to open up a 14-point buffer that Taranaki were never able to recover from. Tamanivalu was part of a largely impressive showing from the backs, with Kini Naholo, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkins and Haki Wiseman all standing out, but there was a lack of general direction in the halves and their kicking game left a bit to be desired, while the forward pack lost some crucial battles.
Canterbury’s Ranfurly Shield reign was short-lived this time around, mounting an unsuccessful defence last Thursday to lose to Northland 12-36. Canterbury looked like they were firing on all cylinders in the early goings, with Tahlor Cahill and Jone Rova putting the finishing touches on a couple of spectacular tries in the opening 20 minutes, but that was all she wrote for the defendants. Their scrum was out-muscled, their attack began to wear away and the Taniwha made them pay for a lot of their mistakes. Canterbury weren’t able to get into the right parts of the park often enough and although the likes of Rova, Jamie Hannah, Dominic Gardiner, Chay Fihaki and Andrew Knewstubb tried to keep their team in the fight, Northland were clearly the deserved winners.
There have been a slew of changes made by Canterbury, including a forced one with Jamie Hannah joining the All Blacks in South Africa. Louie Chapman (bench), Ngane Punivai (rest) and Dallas McLeod (rest) have all been removed from the starting back line, marking significant changes for the defending champions, while there is relative stability for Taranaki, with the inclusions of Meihana Grindlay and Michael Loft being the only changes to the starting XV. There is a real chance that the Bulls can win this game, with the visitors making some crucial changes and with Taranaki possessing the weapons to heap the pressure on Canterbury. I like the Bulls as outsiders.
Best
Taranaki +8.5 ($1.90)
Value
Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($2.80)
Try Scorer
Kini Naholo ($11 First, $1.78 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Kini Naholo Try / Jone Rova Try / JJ Pokai Try ($11.72)
Otago recorded their biggest win in at least eight years, thumping Wellington 61-22 on Sunday. Save for the first 15 minutes, the Razorbacks were all over the visitors in this contest, as their defence repeatedly shut down the Lions’ attacks and then made the Wellingtonians pay in counter-attack. Although they had just 36% territory and 42% possession, Otago were incredibly efficient on attack, with nine line breaks from 95 carries, while breaking 42 tackles to see Wellington record an abysmal 66% tackle completion. Sam Nemec-Vial was a constant threat and midfield buddies Jake Te Hiwi and Josh Timu anchored the attack, with Te Hiwi continuing his excellent run of form. Up front, Christian Lio-Willie and Lucas Casey were dynamic once more and front-rowers Rohan Wingham and Henry Bell were elite in close quarters.
Waikato got back into the winners circle last week with a 45-12 thumping of Counties Manukau. There was little separating the sides in the first half, with a Te Paea Cook-Savage try sending the Mooloos into the break up 17-12, before the Steelers’ second yellow card of the night allowed Waikato to open the floodgates. D’Angelo Leuila started the rampage, crashing over from close range, before Oli Mathis scored two quick tries to see the margin pass the 25-point mark and secure the win. There were some cracks in Waikato’s set piece but they were tidy elsewhere, led by Mathis’ strong running play and team-high 19 tackles. Leuila, Nathan Stephens, Dan Sinkinson and Austin Anderson led the attack and Mason Tupaea and Sean Ralph defended with intent.
Otago are in fine form heading into this clash and I expect them to turn that into another five points in Dunedin. Waikato will provide a good challenge, but with an unchanged 23 named by Mark Brown, the Razorbacks have a very good squad at their disposal and will be too strong on attack. Waikato will be without Samipeni Finau and they will ultimately be out-muscled in Dunedin, where Otago have covered six of their last eight games.
Best
Otago -6.5 ($1.90)
Value
Otago 11-20 ($4.00)
Try Scorer
Jae Broomfield ($12 First, $1.85 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Jae Broomfield Try / Waisake Salibiau Try / Lucas Casey Try ($9.67)
Manawatū slipped to their biggest loss in almost two years on Friday in a 17-59 defeat to Hawke’s Bay. Given that the Turbos were leading for much of the first half, they will be extremely flat about how the final 45 minutes played out, losing 5-52. It could well have been a healthier halftime score for Manawatū, given their abundance of opportunities in the opening 30 minutes, but once they got on the back foot they never looked like recovering. Their lineout was an issue all night long and their 19 turnovers gave the hosts too many attacking opportunities, but there were some positives. Rory Woods was excellent, leading the team with 16 carries, 16 tackles and a try, while Taniela Filimone, George Worboys and TK Howden had good showings again.
North Harbour’s excellent form in 2026 resumed on Saturday, winning the Battle of the Bridge 27-19. Now with three consecutive wins under their belts, Harbour are flying high, and it was a deserved victory over Auckland, always looking like the most threatening team and providing themselves with plenty of attacking opportunities, and their scrambling defence helped them on a couple of occasions to close out the win. Tristyn Cook was a big part of their success, seemingly popping up everywhere in open play while providing a reliable lineout option in an impressive showing, and Harbour’s back three again flexed their muscles. Israel Leota started the game in the best possible fashion, flying high over the Auckland defence to claim a kick and score, while Rory Taylor and Kade Banks also had their moments on attack.
Some key changes have been made by North Harbour, with Nui Muriwai and Coby Miln being named the starting 9-10 combo and the impressive George Reeves starting for Motikai Murray. For the Turbos, Drua hooker Mesulame Dolokoto makes his debut and Mosese Bason returns to the starting team, with these changes somewhat levelling out the playing field, especially with this game being held in Palmerston North. The dynamism of North Harbour, especially their back three, will be the standout feature of this contest, but I will be surprised if it’s a double-digit margin in the final score.
Best
Manawatū +8.5 ($1.90)
Value
Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($3.00)
Try Scorer
Israel Leota ($8.25 First, $1.45 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Isreal Leota Try / Taniela Filimone Try / Jed Melvin Try ($8.08)
Wellington’s season continues to disappoint and it’s hard to see any kind of positive outlook following their 22-61 loss to Otago on Sunday. Perhaps the encouraging takeaways were that the Lions dominated possession (58%) and territory (64%), but the visitors generated just eight entries into Otago’s 22 and just three tries from this. Defensively, Wellington were awful again, completing just 66% of their tackle attempts by missing a whopping 42 tackles. To make matters worse, Du’Plessis Kirifi failed an HIA early on in the game and won’t be suiting up this week, and although captain Caleb Delany tried to lead from the front and Reo Matsushita had a couple of dangerous touches, it was another shocker from the Wellingtonians.
Counties Manukau will also have taken away few positives from their Round 4 clash against Waikato, losing 12-45. In fairness, the Steelers were going blow-for-blow with the hosts in the opening 35 minutes, with tries to Josh Gray and Atunaisa Moli seeing the score be tied at 12-12, but a try to Waikato just before the break, followed by a yellow card to Ian West-Stevens, seemed to disrupt the Steelers’ flow. That led to a scoreless second half for Counties and a big loss, as the defence fell to pieces, finishing the game with 37 missed tackles. Cameron Church was the standout for Counties, leading the charge on attack and defence, and Adam Brash had 21 tackles, while Tuna Tuitama had some incisive carries.
This bottom-of-the-table clash will act as a rather bleak curtain-raiser for the Ranfurly Shield clash, with both teams still hunting their first win of the season. Counties will be buoyed by the return of Gibson Popoali’i at second five-eighth and that will help their attack in what I expect to be a very high-scoring game. The Lions have showed little ability to defend in 2026, conceding an average of 48.5 points per game, and they’re going to have some attacking success of their own against an iffy Steelers defence, making the over the bet.
Best
Over 65.5 ($1.92)
Value
Counties Manukau 1-12 ($3.80)
Try Scorer
Adam Morrison ($19 First, $2.40 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Adam Morrison Try / James O’Reilly Try / AJ Alatimu Try ($21.31)
Northland produced a massive performance last Thursday to win the Ranfurly Shield in Christchurch. Having not held the Shield since 1979, the Taniwha broke a near-50-year drought with their 36-12 triumph over Canterbury and they were clearly up for the fight early on, as James Mullan crossed for a try from a lineout play. After weathering the storm that was a couple of red-hot Canterbury tries, the Taniwha took control of the game through the pack, dominating at scrum time and at the breakdown, before Rivez Reihana and Sam Nock steered the team home with a level-headed performance in the halves. Rob Rush was the star for the Taniwha, with two tries, 17 tackles, 17 carries and four defenders beaten, while the running game of Nock caused issues and Reihana kept the Canterbury defence honest to help his team record a historic victory.
Tasman made it back-to-back bonus-point wins last Saturday by thumping Southland 46-17. If the first half was anything to go by, we were set for a tight and interesting second half in Nelson, but the Mako came out of the sheds a completely different team, as Wil Thornalley cleverly darted over from close range to start the scoring run. Tasman had five more tries in them before the end of the 80 minutes to turn a nail-biter into a blowout at home, as Kyren Taumoefolau was quite literally gifted a try by Maloni Kunawave in the final play to cap off a big performance. The star wing had 191 metres carried, 7 defenders beaten and 3 line breaks and a couple of try assists to go with his two tries to continue his elite form, while Kunawave was impressive from the back. Rory Scott and Johnny Lee stood out again up front, helping Tasman get back to sixth place on what is a very congested ladder.
It’s a tasty end to Round 5, with the Mako mounting a Shield challenge against what will be a very determined Taniwha side. Australian outside back James Ramm is in line for his Northland debut off the bench, in what is an otherwise unchanged 23, while Thornalley starts for Tasman at halfback. It’s going to be a high-octane game, and I expect both games to come into this game red-hot, which is going to make it a nail-biter. I expect there to be less than a try in the final score, which makes the 6.5-point line stand out. Tasman have some very experienced personnel to help keep them in the fight and that’s going to make a difference in Whangārei, and I could see Tasman lifting the Shield here.
Best
Tasman +6.5 ($1.90)
Value
Tasman 1-12 ($4.20)
Try Scorer
Kyren Taumoefolau ($10 First, $1.65 Anytime)
Same Game Multi
Kyren Taumoefolau Try / Nathan Salmon Try / Cooper Roberts Try ($9.97)