Matt Markham has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the eight races at the Ashburton Harness meeting on Sunday 9 August below:
Super run off a horrible draw last week at Addington by Miracle Memphis (1) and in a stronger field than this. Should find life a lot easier and with a cold shot at them late looks a huge each way chance at a very nice price to start the day.
Selections: 1-4-11-2-7
| 1. Miracle Memphis (1) J: Wilson House 24363T: Michael House | |||
| Racing with good purpose and should dispute the finish courtesy of the ace today | |||
He’s far from the full package, but there’s a fair amount of talent to Chester Gold (11). Gets out of his ground early but can sustain a long run from very far back. Ashburton should really suit him and if he gets a chance to wind up then he’ll be charging better than most.
Selections: 11-5-8-2-1
| 11. Chester Gold (11) J: Nikita Burton 24514T: Kyle Cameron | |||
| Sharp sprint to score, 24 July and decent run since. Obvious danger to the fave. | |||
A tricky draw left Carrera Bravo (1) with few options last week at Addington but a much better marble here on the home track can see things turn around. Trial form had been great leading into that last run and from the draw he looks the horse to beat this week.
Selections: 1-9-3-2-6
| 1. Carrera Bravo (1) J: Sarah O’Reilly 33×97T: Brent & Tim White | |||
| Made ground from the rear last week as fave. Track/distance placing. Major hope. | |||
Two really strong runs back to the races from a long spell by Adamas (4) and finds a nice race to turn good form into winning form here today. Nice draw, good tempo on offer and with a cold shot at them should be able to get past most, if not all.
Selections: 4-5-3-2-1
| 4. Adamas (4) J: Harrison Orange 31×32T: Robbie Holmes | |||
| Strong showings since returning to the track and from the front row looks hard. | |||
Some good Addington form of late should stack up pretty well here today for Origin (3). Generally brings good manners and looks a great chance to step and run here. On the speed in this kind of field looks the place to be and with a nice trip can win.
Selections: 3-4-8-10-12
| 3. Origin (3) J: Peter Davis x5527T: Margo Nyhan | |||
| Weakened after working hard 9 days ago. Place claims from a cushier trip today. | |||
Superb effort from off the speed last week at Addington by Kowhai Star (10) and with a little luck here looks a big winning prospect. Somewhat held back by what happens in front of her early, if the gaps come she’ll be charging and can definitely win.
Selections: 10-8-5-1-11
| 10. Kowhai Star (1) J: Seth Hill 40602T: Mark Jones | |||
| Charged late to get within 1L, 31 July. Course/dist specialist; danger with gaps | |||
Put her rivals to the sword at Addington last week and was far too good for them was Nothing But You (10). Tricky wee spot here to contend with but she’s the quality horse of the field and as long as there is no bad luck she should be hard to beat.
Selections: 10-11-6-3-12
| 10. Nothing But You (1) J: Crystal Hackett 3×221T: Steven Reid | |||
| Has returned in super touch and despite the tricky alley should be all the rage. | |||
Showing all the qualities of a horse set to win a race at short notice, today should be the day for Rosario (10). Has been good in behind some very nice types and is knocking on the door. Ashburton looks ideal and with the right kind of run, expect a big effort.
Selections: 10-7-13-11-6
| 10. Rosario (10) J: Sam Thornley 43342T: Ross Houghton | |||
| Beaten by a nice type, 31 July and his maiden win looks imminent. On top for us. | |||
It shows as a seventh in the form, but the run of Miki’s Courage (9) at Addington two weeks ago was much better than that. Really suitable assignment here and if able to get onto the speed at some point looks a great contender for victory.
Selections: 9-11-8-1-7
| 9. Miki’s Courage (9) J: Ricky May 48017T: Warren Stapleton | |||
| Game defeating #12 two starts back and solid since. Consider for combos value. | |||
