Cobolli’s win over De Minaur was an upset on paper but not for followers as the French Open finalist made it through to the quarter finals here for the second consecutive year. American Taylor Fritz crushed Bublik but the big story was Arthur Fery’s come from behind win over Dimitrov.
Fritz got the raw end of the stick when he drew Draper in the first round but has not looked back from the moment the Brit withdrew from the tournament. His only hiccup to date was losing the opening set against Sonego but outside of that he has been clinical. He now faces the newest Grand Slam champion but it is the German who should be worried. This matchup has been a nightmare for Zverev with Fritz winning the last 7 meetings between them! That streak began two years ago on this court with the American coming from two sets down to win in five. He then beat Zverev a few months later at the US Open and has recorded a further two more wins against him on grass – the final of Stuttgart last year and a three set win at Halle a fortnight ago. The H2H record is too lob-sided to ignore. Fritz is a fantastic bet in this one!
Best Bet: Fritz WIN ($1.90)
Value Bet: Fritz -1.5 Sets ($2.55)
The cookies got it completely wrong in the De Minaur/Cobolli match. They installed the Australian as a firm favourite but it was Cobolli who won in straight sets. In the last 12 months, the Italian has shown us that his game is build for best of five sets. Made the quarters here last year and there is no need to keep refencing his run to the final in Paris, Interestingly, he lost in the opening round of the Australian Open and the man who beat him was Arthur Fery! The Brit won in straight sets and is physically ready to play five long sets and as many hours needed to win. He has won all four breakers that he has contested at The Championships and coming off consecutive five set wins is not a concern. Fery attacked the Cobolli second serve with great success in Australia and that will be part of his game plan here. Can see both players having hot streaks in the match which makes the Overs a great bet.
Best Bet: Over 38.5 games ($1.88)
Value Bet: Total Sets – 5 Sets ($3.50)
