NRL Tips & Preview | Round 9

The Round 9 opener between Canterbury and North Queensland shapes as a key match for both teams. The Bulldogs are under immense pressure as they continue to blow winnable games. The Cowboys have taken advantage of an easy start to the season and need to build up wins before their draw gets more difficult. The best play in this one is not a side but jumping on the over. The over is in a strong spot for both teams. It is 13-6 when the Bulldogs are $1.70 or bigger at Accor and 23-18 when they are off a loss. It is notable that Marcelo Montoya has been dropped too. The over hits at 63% when the Bulldogs are without Montoya. The over is 10-5 when the Cowboys are off scoring 35-plus while it is 10-6 when they are off conceding at least 34. Against teams outside the Top 8m the over is 23-13. Very keen on points in this one. Heilum Luki has been a quality tryscorer this year with four tries in eight games this season. Braidon Burns is a classy finisher who has 17 tries in 24 games since moving to the Cowboys. Scott Drinkwater has been in elite tryscoring form, crossing in four of his last six games.

Tips

Best: Over 50.5 ($1.90)
Next: North Queensland 41+ Points ($12.50)
Tryscorer: Helium Luki ($19 First, $3.25 Anytime)
SGM: Helium Luki Try/Braidon Burns Try/Scott Drinkwater Try ($15.99)

The Dolphins have played in games that have tallied 50 or more just twice this season but against a Storm team that is defensively shot conceding 29 points per game and 38-plus in two of their last four, this game could get messy again for the Storm. Three of the four clashes between these teams have reached 54 points with the over 3-1. The over is 21-10 when the Storm are off a loss while this is a big over spot for Dolphins. The over is 17-10 when the Phins are favoured, 19-13 when they play at Suncorp and 26-18 when they are off a loss. This projects as the highest scoring matchup of Round 9 even with the Storm missing Jahrome Hughes. Herbie Farnworth is in outstanding form with three tries in his last three games. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 58 tries in 64 games as a Dolphin. Sua Fa’alogo has been electric with 10 tries in eight games.

Tips

Best: Over 53.5 ($1.90)
Next: Over 61.5 ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Herbie Farnworth ($11 First, $1.98 Anytime)
SGM: Herbie Farnworth Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Sua Fa’alogo Try ($5.34)

Canberra have a dominant record over the Gold Coast with six straight wins and 12 covers in the last 15 clashes but the Titans shape as one of the better bets of the week. Canberra have been very poor this season and there have been some major outs with Zac Hosking and Noah Martin joining Hudson Young on the sidelines. The Titans are a young team with a long way to go but are dangerous when it clicks. Gold Coast have covered six of seven as an underdog against bottom five teams while they are 12-9 against the number as a home outsider. The Raiders have covered four of 15 without Hudson Young since 2020 while they are 15-25 against the spread when favoured. When playing on the road against bottom five opposition, Canberra have covered just two of 10. Expect Gold Coast to shorten right up in this one. Arama Hau is an utter beast who looks every bit a superstar. He has four tries in seven games. AJ Brimson comes up against the troublesome right edge of the Raiders led by missed tackle machine Matt Timoko so looks huge overs to score.

Tips

Best: Gold Coast Win ($1.95)
Next: Gold Coast 13+ ($3.50)
Tryscorer: Arama Hau ($19 First, $2.85 Anytime)
SGM: Arama Hau Try/AJ Brimson Try ($6.98)

The Warriors are very much an eye bet here despite some concerning numbers. New Zealand have a diabolical record when favoured, covering at just 37%, while they are 9-24 against the spread when favoured by at least a try. The Eels have won six of seven against the Warriors including two of three at CommBank. New Zealand though are the real deal and should be able to tear apart a team that has conceded 48-plus three times already. The Warriors lead the NRL in try assists, rank third in metres and sit in the top half in tackle breaks. With New Zealand 26-17 against the spread in Australia and the Eels 8-18 against the spread against Top 4 teams, the Warriors can be bet with confidence. Chanel Harris-Tavita is a highly undervalued tryscorer who has crossed for three tries from his five appearances this year. Alofiana Khan-Pereira has doubles in both of his last two games for the Warriors.

Tips

Best: New Zealand -7.5 ($1.85)
Next: New Zealand 30+ ($6.20)
Tryscorer: Chanel Harris-Tavita ($23 First, $3.80)
SGM: Chanel Harris-Tavita Try/Alofiana Khan-Pereira 2+ Tries ($14.41)

The Broncos have been the most underrated team in the premiership of late, continuing to win despite a large injury toll. Brisbane have won five of their last six games despite missing the likes of Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan, Reece Walsh and Ben Hunt for much of that run. This is a very nice spot for the Broncos, who have covered 19 of 32 since 2008. The Broncos are 13-5 against the spread at night while they are 17-8 against the number as an underdog. Brisbane have covered 18 of 29 interstate while they are 21-12 against the spread when $1.70 or bigger. The Roosters have been running rampant over ordinary teams but this Broncos team looks very much the real deal. Josiah Karapani has 14 tries in 20 games across the last two seasons. Reece Walsh returns from a bad head knock – he has 32 tries in his last 38 games. Mark Nawaqanitawase comes off back-to-back doubles.

Tips

Best: Brisbane +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Brisbane Win ($2.50)
Tryscorer: Josiah Karapani ($11.50 First, $2.15 Anytime)
SGM: Josiah Karapani Try/Reece Walsh Try/Mark Nawaqanitawase Try ($7.52)

Betting has changed significantly in this one with the Knights shortening from 5.5-point home underdogs to 1.5-point outsiders at home on the back of news Kalyn Ponga would play. Souths certainly look value right now but the better play is to take the under with the total far too high. Souths have kept opponents to 16 or fewer in three of their last five. The under is 36-18 when Souths play in NSW while it is 21-11 when Souths are off a win. When that win is more than a converted try, the under is 14-9. The under is 31-23 when Newcastle are underdogs while it has hit in seven of the last 11 Knights-Rabbitohs matches. The 52.5-point total seems far too big. Tallis Duncan comes off his first hat-trick against the Storm and he now has 16 tries in 29 games starting in the second row or the centres. Alex Johnston is the greatest tryscorer in the history of the game and he shows no signs of slowing down with nine tries in seven matches this year. Latrell Mitchell is having an elite tryscoring season with 10 four-pointers.

Tips

Best: Under 52.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle Under 25.5 ($1.90)
Tryscorer: Tallis Duncan ($16 First, $2.65 Anytime)
SGM: Tallis Duncan Try/Alex Johnston Try/Latrell Mitchell Try ($7.06)

The Tigers face their stiffest test of the season when playing Cronulla at Shark Park without Api Koroisau, Jahream Bula and Kai Pearce-Paul. Losing two key spine players and such an in-form edge is a tough scenario to overcome. The Tigers have won just one of seven without Api Koroisau. Cronulla have won 11 of 14 against the Tigers with five straight wins at Shark Park, the last two by margins of 26-plus. The Sharks are 21-14 against the spread off a loss while they are 21-13 against the number at Shark Park. Off conceding 20-plus points, Cronulla are 24-19 against the spread. The Sharks look a very good play this week given the list of outs for the Tigers. Siosifa Talakai scored a double last week and he comes up against a Tigers left edge that concedes 57% of their tries. Braydon Trindall has 23 tries in his last 53 games – an excellent return for a half.

Tips

Best: Cronulla -6.5 ($1.85)
Next: Cronulla 13+ ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Siosifa Talakai ($15 First, $2.50 Anytime)
SGM: Siosifa Talakai Try/Braydon Trindall Try ($7.77)

Penrith shapes as one of the better bets for Round 9 laying 12.5 points against Manly without Tom Trbojevic. The Panthers have a dominant record against the Sea Eagles with 15 wins in the last 19 clashes. Penrith are 19-11 against the spread in the 30 matches against Manly since 2008. The Panthers are at close to full strength and have covered six of eight games this year with six of their seven wins by 20 points or more. Penrith have covered 11 of 15 in NSW and 11 of 15 when favoured by more than a try. The Sea Eagles won well against the Eels last week but did look at sea with Tom Trbojevic. They have covered just three of nine without him. With Manly 13-17 against the spread off conceding 18 or fewer, Penrith can be bet with confidence. Dylan Edwards is airborne this season with nine tries in eight games. Tom Jenkins has 16 tries already in 2026. Luke Garner has a good record against Manly with three tries in eight games.

Tips

Best: Penrith -12.5 ($1.90)
Next: Penrith -29.5 ($4.40)
Tryscorer: Dylan Edwards ($10 First, $1.85 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Edwards Try/Tom Jenkins Try/Luke Garner Try ($10.08)