NRL Tips & Preview | Round 8

It is impossible to be critical of how the Tigers have performed this season. They sit in the Top 4. Their two defeats have been close losses to quality teams South Sydney and Brisbane. They have not conceded more than 22 points all season. This looks a real danger spot for the Tigers though against a Raiders team that has won their last two and thrives as an underdog. Canberra are 26-16 against the spread as an underdog while they are 17-11 against the number getting at least four points. On the road getting a try, Canberra are 13-5 against the number. The Tigers have covered just four of 14 when favoured and just two of seven laying more than a try. Both teams have made changes but Canberra look more stable. The plus here is too big. The Tigers leak 62% of their tries down their left making right edge players Simi Sasagi and Ethan Strange excellent bets. Sasagi has scored in two of his last three while he ranks 6th in the NRL in tackle breaks. Strange has scored in three straight games. Jahream Bula has been in elite tryscoring form with five tries in his last four games.

Tips

Best: Canberra +5.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canberra Win ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Simi Sasagi ($14 First, $2.55 Anytime)
SGM: Simi Sasagi Try/Ethan Strange Try/Jahream Bula Try ($14.26)

Cronulla have been simply sensational whenever they have played North Queensland and that domination that has lasted the better part of a decade will certainly play on the minds of a Cowboys side coming off a 30-point home loss. The Sharks are 14-2 in their last 16 against the Cowboys with 16 covers in the last 19 meetings. They have won five of the six matches at Queensland Country Bank Stadium while they have posted at least 30 points in seven of the last eight against Todd Payten’s team. The Sharks went down to the Roosters before a bye but they bounce back well with a 21-13 cover record off a loss. The Sharks are 26-16 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8. North Queensland are 17-22 against the spread off a loss. The Sharks are well over the odds in this one. Teig Wilton has scored in two of his three starts this year and has crossed four times in 10 games against North Queensland. Sam Stonestreet has a great strike rate with 18 tries in 22 games. Mawene Hiroti doesn’t play often but scores when he does with eight tries in his last 12 games.

Tips

Best: Cronulla Win ($1.87)
Next: Cronulla 13+ ($3.70)
Tryscorer: Teig Wilton ($21 First, $3.50 Anytime)
SGM: Teig Wilton Try/Sam Stonestreet Try/Mawene Hiroti Try ($12.59)

Both the Broncos and the Bulldogs have been hit hard by injury with Brisbane arguably worse off. Payne Haas, Deine Mariner and Corey Jensen are the latest outs, joining a long list including Reece Walsh, Ben Hunt and Patrick Carrigan. The Bulldogs welcome back Stephen Crichton but Jacob Kiraz and Enari Tuala are both out. The total looks the best play in this one with the over hitting in four of the last five clashes. When the Broncos play without both Reece Walsh and Payne Haas, the over is 9-1. The over is also 30-17 when the Broncos are off conceding 20 or fewer. On the Canterbury side, the over is 13-9 when the Bulldogs are off conceding 30 or more while it is 5-2 when they are an interstate favourite. Expect points in this one. Ben Talty has scored five tries in 17 appearances for the bench and now gets the start at prop where he will get to play big minutes. Lachlan Galvin has six tries in 20 games for the Bulldogs including two in his last three.

Tips

Best: Over 49.5 ($1.90)
Next: 61+ Points ($4.00)
Tryscorer: Ben Talty ($31 First, $5.50 Anytime)
SGM: Ben Talty Try/Lachlan Galvin Try ($19.07)

Dragons fans will be hoping for a boost from their team following the dismissal of Shane Flanagan but those hopes seem fleeting given the Roosters attack and the diabolical state of the Dragons roster. It was stunning that interim coach Dean Young did not drop Valentine Holmes after he missed 12 tackles last week. He did name Kade Reed to debut though and he should improve the Dragons attack. While the Roosters can be backed laying 16.5 points, the best play in this is the over. The over has hit in seven straight Roosters-Dragons games with the last three Anzac Day games all going 53 points or more. The over has hit in four straight Dragons games at Allianz while it is 11-6 when the Roosters are off scoring 38-plus. There shapes to be plenty of points when the Dragons and Roosters square off in this traditional clash. Hugo Savala lines up opposite Valentine Holmes, who missed 12 tackles last week and has conceded seven tries to his direct opposite this season. James Tedesco has 16 tries in 23 games against the Dragons, crossing the last three Anzac Days. Siua Wong is a hard-running type who scored last week and playing on an edge is a dangerous weapon.

Tips

Best: Over 52.5 ($1.90)
Next: 61+ Points ($3.05)
Tryscorer: Hugo Savala ($12 First, $2.20 Anytime)
SGM: Hugo Savala Try/James Tedesco Try/Siua Wong Try ($12.47)

The Warriors continue to roll, sitting second on the ladder after rolling the Titans at home 28-20. It was but the latest example though of the Wahs failing to match market expectations when heavily favoured, failing to cover the line as a 10.5-point elect. The Warriors are now an extraordinary 9-23 against the spread when favoured by four or more points while they cover the spread at just 37% when a favourite. Backing up from a strong attacking showing has not been their go either, covering just nine of 26 off scoring at least 28 points. The Dolphins are 23-15 against the spread getting a start of at least a try while they have covered 11 of 18 against Top 4 opposition. The Dolphins have a torrid trip after playing in oppressive conditions in Darwin last week but the plus seems too big in a game the Phins can win. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 58 tries in 63 games since moving to the Dolphins. Herbie Farnworth loves playing the Warriors with eight tries in 10 games. Alofiana Khan-Pereira has an elite strike rate with 55 tries in 56 games.

Tips

Best: Dolphins +7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins Win ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($10.50 First, $2.15 Anytime)
SGM: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Herbie Farnworth Try/Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try ($9.08)

Melbourne are in uncharted territory during Craig Bellamy’s tenure with the Storm losing their last five. Bellamy has toned down the angst as the realisation dawns on him that the Storm just aren’t as good as they once were. They get a great opportunity to end their dire run of form though against a South Sydney team that has never won in Melbourne. The domination extends beyond the Victorian border though with 31 wins in the last 36 clashes. The Storm have won by at least eight in four of the last five at AAMI Park against Souths. The Bunnies have certainly been winning more than the Storm but they are 6-10 ATS off scoring 30-plus and have covered just 10 of 24 interstate. There is an element of trust needed to be with Melbourne here but they look a more reliable play than Souths given their desperation. Sua Fa’alogo has been Melbourne’s most dangerous weapon this season with nine tries in seven games. Will Warbrick has four tries in four games against the Rabbitohs. Jack Wighton matches up against the Storm’s heinous left edge that has conceded 52% of Melbourne’s tries.

Tips

Best: Melbourne -3.5 ($1.85)
Next: Melbourne 13+ ($3.05)
Tryscorer: Sualauvi Fa’alogo ($9.50 First, $1.82 Anytime)
SGM: Sualauvi Fa’alogo Try/Will Warbrick Try/Jack Wighton Try ($13.25)

It will take a fair amount of faith to side with the Knights after conceding 42 and 38 the last two weeks against the Tigers and Panthers respectively but big home underdogs are an automatic bet in the opening eight weeks and Penrith are coming off two sub-par showings. Home underdogs of eight or more in the opening eight weeks cover at 63%. The Knights are also a different side at home and during the day. Newcastle are 28-15 against the spread in day games and 23-16 against the spread at home. In home day games, the Knights are 13-5 against the number. While Penrith have dropped just two of the last 18 against the Knights, Newcastle have covered three of the last four meetings. The plus won’t be a fun watch but it is the bet. Dylan Edwards has had an elite start to this season with six tries in seven games including in each of his last three. Dom Young has 82 tries in 99 games and is as good a finisher as there is in the game. Tom Jenkins has set an insane pace this year with 16 tries in seven games, scoring at least two in every match.

Tips

Best: Newcastle +12.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 50.5 ($1.90)
Tryscorer: Dylan Edwards ($11 First, $2.05 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Edwards Try/Dom Young Try/Tom Jenkins Try ($6.45)

Loose games have been the norm for both the Sea Eagles and Eels this year. Manly’s first four games all topped 49 while their attack has shown no sign of slowing down under Kieran Foran, averaging 39.33 points per game under his stewardship. Only one Eels game has failed to reach 50 points with three of their seven reaching 62. Manly and Parramatta have gone over the total in six of their last nine while both teams are in strong over spots. The over is 16-12 when Manly are off scoring 28 or more while it is 6-3 when the Eels are off scoring 38-plus and 17-6 when they are an underdog of at least a try away from CommBank. The number is high in this one but not high enough. Will Penisini has scored in both games since returning from injury and has three tries in eight games against Manly. Lehi Hopoate has five tries in his last three games. Tolutau Koula has 20 tries in his last 28 games and is one of the most dynamic runners in the code.

Tips

Best: Over 53.5 ($1.90)
Next: Over 61.5 ($2.75)
Tryscorer: Will Penisini ($16 First, $2.70 Anytime)
SGM: Will Penisini Try/Lehi Hopoate Try/Tolutau Koula Try ($7.32)