Jannik Sinner is the two-time defending champion and the man to beat in Melbourne over the next fortnight. Despite losing to Sinner in the ATP Tour Finals to end last year, Carlos Alcaraz is the top seed and chasing history as he attempts to become the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam. There is a big gap back to the chasing pack which is headed by 10-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic. Alex De Minaur will give the locals some hope during the first week but the key to success will be finding the quarter winners.
Carlos Alcaraz ($2.75): The world number 1 has historically been slow out of the blocks to start the season and has never made it past the quarter finals of this tournament. Djokovic go the better of his last year, but the pair are on opposite sides of the draw this time around. Choosing Alcaraz over Sinner is based on price and the history between them. Alcaraz has won 7 of the last 9 meetings between them on the ATP Tour and if they are to meet in the final as expected, the odds will be a coin flip.
Jannik Sinner ($1.83): Not only is Sinner the two-time defending champion, but he is the most consistent player on the tour by a clear margin having made the final in each of his last five major appearances. He has compiled an incredible record on hard courts in the last 2-3 years and it is his best surface. The Italian lost a total of 6 matches last year with four defeats at the hands of Alcaraz and another being a retirement against Griekspoor. Alexander Bublik was the only man other than Alcaraz to beat him in a completed match!
Novak Djokovic ($13): If there is one tournament where Djokovic commands the ultimate respect, it is the Australian Open. He has made Rod Laver Arena his own and his victory over Alcaraz here 12 months ago is evidence that he does have something left in the tank. He made the semi finals at all four majors last year with the duo of Sinner and Alcaraz responsible for his exit at three of them. As we witnessed last year, the Serbian matches up better against Alcaraz but I firmly believe he has one more great match in him. Can get the better of Sinner if they meet but beating both men at the same major seems beyond anyone for the foreseeable future.
Jakub Mensik ($151): Have given up on any of the established veterans breaking through and from this point one will be looking for the next young star to break through. At 20 years of age, Jakub Mensik is a name to keep a close eye on. He claimed the biggest title of his career less than a year ago beating the likes of Draper, Fritz and Djokovic on his way to winning the Miami Masters. Fresh of a final appearance in Auckland, he possesses a huge serve and serious power from the baseline. Can take the backhand on down the line and is a handy enough athlete a 6 foot 5.
Alexander Zverev ($26): The forgets list gets bigger with every major that comes around. Zverev has been excellent in the last 12-18 months having made the finals of the French Open (2024) and Australian Open last year. The problem…. He is now 0-3 in major finals and does not believe than he can beat Sinner or Alcaraz on the biggest stage.
Alex De Minaur ($67): Had made the quarter finals in 5 of the last 7 Grand Slams but does not have the game to go all the way. Fell to 0-6 in major quarter finals and is turning into Rublev 2.0. Wins matches that he is supposed to against lower-ranked opposition but will suffer a comprehensive loss once he locks horns with one of the major contenders.
Alexander Bublik ($51): Is the most unpredictable player on tour and although he has claimed some big scalps in the best of three sets format, he has not been able to replicate that at Grand Slam level. To be frank, he has not have the mental fortitude required to succeed in the best of five sets format over the course of 4+ hours for two weeks.
Stefanos Tsitsipas ($251): Was the runner-up here in 2023 and has made the semi finals on three other occasions, but Tsitsipas has forgotten how to win tennis matches. His single-handed backhand has become a target for opponents and he is no longer able to dominate with his forehand. His transition game and net play were assets but he is no longer able to utilise them effectively. Another early exit beckons.
Casper Ruud ($151): An 8-6 career record at this tournament highlights his struggles in Melbourne and despite a favourable draw early, I do not expect him to make any impact in the tournament. Has never made it beyond the 4th Round here and bowed out to Mensik in the 2nd round a year ago.
Hubert Hurkacz ($126): Of the roughies, Hurkacz may manage to make some noise. Compileed a 4-1 record at the United Cup which was a fair effort considering it was his first tournament back following 6 months out with injury. A terrible record at Grand Slam levels is the concern but we will likely be backing him in his early matches .
Daniil Medvedev ($26): As a three-time finalist here (2021, 2022, 2024) may have labelled Medvedev as one of the interesting roughies. I say no thanks as his form at the majors in the last year was horrendous. Lost to Tien in the second round here before opening round losses at the next three majors – Norrie at the French and Bonzi at both Wimbledon and the US Open. With three of those losses coming in five sets he seems to have lost the edge that made him tough to beat.
Andrey Rublev ($151): When it comes to Rublev it is a simple case of copy-paste for every major tournament. Is 0-10 in Grand Slam quarter final matches and even that is looking beyond him with 4th Round exits at 4 of the last 5 Grand Slams.
Team America: Taylor Fritz ($51) was disappointing at the United Cup and has hinted that his knee is not 100%. Shelton ($51) has a tricky first round match against Humbert and is in the same quarter as Sinner so you can put a line through him. We will likely witness a 3rd Round battle between Tiafoe ($201) and De Minaur but even if the enigmatic American can progress, he will no be making any noise in the second week. Korda ($201) lost to Kokkinakis who was playing his first match in a year in Adelaide and there is no interest in the likes of Tommy Paul ($151) or Alex Michelsen ($251).
Winner
Best: Carlos Alcaraz ($2.75)
Value: Jakub Mensik ($151)
Quarter Winners
Quarter 1: Alcaraz ($1.20)
Quarter 2: Norrie ($26), Marozsan ($41)
Quarter 3: Djokovic ($2.38), Mensik ($17)
Quarter 4: Sinner ($1.14), Baez ($81)