Pacific Championships | Round 3

PNG were 40-28 winners over the Cook Islands last week – victors by a slightly smaller margin than Fiji’s 44-24 win over them in Week 1 of the Pacific Championships. Cowboys’ flyer Robert Derby scored a double but has been dropped for Dudley Dotoi while Rhyse Martin had an afternoon to remember with a try and five goals. In Fiji’s win over the Cook Islands, it was the Jahream Bula show as the Tigers fullback ran in four tries in the first half! His team will have the benefit of an additional week of rest, and it means that Kamikamica will play. The same cannot be said about Rinakama (shoulder) which opens the door for Ronald Philitonga to make his debut.

Stats That Matter

The home side have history on their side having won 11 of the 16 meetings between the two nations. That includes victory in the last two meetings with Robert Derby scoring 3 tries across those 2 games which suggests they may regret the decision of relegating him to the extended bench. Fiji have won 6 of their last 9 internationals but two of their defeats in that stretch came against the Kumuls. As we saw in their respective wins over the Cook Islands, both teams are very keen to spread the ball early with 68 total match points in each of those games. The winning team has scored 40+ points in 6 of the last 8 internationals involving PNG which suggest the points will flow in this one.

Prediction

Bula was unstoppable against the Cook Islands so it is safe to say that the Kumuls will have formulated a plan to try and contain him – particularly in set play scenarios. We should see those around him benefit as a result including Valemei and Turuva. Both teams like to play an expansive brand of footy which is great news for the neutrals. Really like the Overs and can see both nations topping 20+ points with ease. Marked Kautoga as one to keep an eye on in Week 1 and he delivered with a try so we will be sticking with him here.

Tips

Best Bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Kitione Kautoga Anytime Try ($4.60)
Same Game Multi: Fiji WIN, Turuva Anytime Try, Valemei Anytime Try, Laybutt Anytime Try ($19.32)

Despite a sell-out crowd on hand at Suncorp Stadium last week, Tonga failed to show up. Samoa rolled them 34-6 in a match interrupted by inclement weather with Tonga failing to take advantage of the lengthy break in the match. They now need to find a way to bounce back against the Kiwis without the duo of Toia (foot) and Utoikamanu (concussion). The duo of Seb Kris and Crossland replace JMK and Mulitalo with Broncos big man Xavier Willison to earn his first cap off the bench.

Stats That Matter

Last week’s defeat means that Tonga have now lost 7 of their last 8 internationals. Their only win during that stretch came a year ago to the day 25-24 against the Kiwis. Isaako missed a penalty goal from 42m out with less than two minutes to play but they are well positioned to avenge that defeat here. The Kiwis hold a 6-2 advantage in the H2H and have an average winning margin of 30.8 points in their six victories. Isaiah Papali’i has scored a try in each of his last two appearances against Tonga with Sione Katoa replicating that effort for the visitors. Tonga’s win in the corresponding fixture last year was the only time in their last 8 games that they were able to score 20+ points.

Prediction

Have serious concerns around Tonga’s ability to put enough points on the board to be competitive in this contest. They have averaged 11.1ppg across their last 8 internationals which includes 3 games against England and two battles with Samoa. The Kiwis had a very high level of intensity throughout their win over Samoa, and the bench trio of Clark, Whyte and Willison will ensure that they repeat that here. Have them winning and winning well.

Tips

Best Bet: New Zealand -9.5 ($1.90)
Value: Isaiah Papali’i Anytime Try ($3.75)
Same Game Multi:  New Zealand WIN, McLean Anytime Try, Sione Katoa Anytime Try ($6.19)