Evan Psarras previews Round 2 of the Pacific Championships.
A slow start proved costly for the Cook Islands last week after they trailed Fiji 24-0 after only 20 minutes. The score ended 44-22 following a consolation try in the final minute but 44 points conceded is very concerning. PNG were competitive in the Prime Minister XIII match a fortnight ago and get 5 big inclusions here with Lachlan Lam, Zac Laybutt, Edwin Ipape, Rhyse Martin and tryscoring machine Alex Johnston. No major changes for the Cook Islands with their two standout players from last week (KL Iro and Ulberg) both named.
Stats That Matter
The Cook Islands have had no answer for PNG. The Kumuls have won all 8 internationals between the two nations with 32 or more points scored in each contest. The Cook Islands have eclipsed the 20-point mark only once but have averaged 16.4ppg in the last 5 meetings. Consequently, there has been an average of 55.2 total match points across the last 5 battles. The beneficiaries have been the Kumuls back five with Nene Macdonald crossing for 6 tries in his last 2 appearances against the Cook Islands while Zac Laybutt bagged a double in his lone appearance in this matchup.
Prediction
PNG have a significant advantage across the board. Having a side in the QLD Cup has provided an excellent pathway for their youth and it has transferred into success at international level. They are undefeated in this matchup with their backline featuring very heavily on the scoresheet. Can see them racking up another big score and after seeing Jahreme Bula run riot last week, I am expecting multiple Kumuls to score 2+ tries. With the Cook Islands defence lacking cohesion, the ball will not need to go all the way to the wingers. Back the centre pairing of Laybutt and Macdonald in try scorer markets.
Tips
Best Bet: PNG -18.5 ($1.90)
Value: PNG by 31-40 ($5.20)
Same Game Multi: Over 51.5 points, Macdonald Anytime Try, Laybutt Anytime Try ($5.36)
Samoa’s battle against the Kiwis last week was one for the ages but whenever they were able to get on level terms, the Kiwis responded. Terell May has been named on the extended bench for this one as he battles a hamstring injury and if Tevaga fails to overcome a concussion problem, Harris-Tevita will step in at no.9. Su’A is unavailable (concussion) but Sasagi, one of the try scorers from last week, slots right in. AFB and Taumalolo will lead the way for Tonga, but it is the four debutants (Toia, Iongi, Halasima and Utoikamanu) who highlight the depth of the squad. Isaiya Katoa will be pulling the strings from halfback with namesake Eliesa and Siua Wong tasked with running aggressive lines on the edges.
Stats That Matter
Their quarter final battle at the 2022 World Cup was one of the matches of the tournament with Samoa winning a nail-biter 20-18. The H2H is locked at 10 wins a piece (1 draw) and there have been household changes to their respective rosters since they last met at the World Cup. Only 1 of the last 9 meetings have produced more than 50 points with an average of only 37.1 total match points across those games. Tonga got the better of New Zealand last year 25-24 and this side on paper is even better. The Under has held in 6 of their last 7 games which suggests points will be hard to come by.
Prediction
Both teams are littered with top class NRL talent and Tonga has a pack that will be able to match motors with Samoa through the middle. The Under held on in Samoa’s battle against the Kiwis last week and I am expecting even fewer points in this contest. Isaiya Katoa is developing into one of the best halves on the planet so look for him to control the contest with his kicking game. Daniel Tupou and Sasagi are the pick of the try scorers for their respective teams with Halasima certain to make an impact off the bench for Tonga. Like them to win a very tight encounter.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 46.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Tribet 1-6 – Either Team By Under 6.5 (2.80)
Same Game Multi: Tonga +1.5, Tupou Anytime Try, Sasagi Anytime Try ($13.57)