Evan Psarras previews Round 27 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.
Craig Bellamy’s 600th game as a coach did not go according to plan. Not only did his side surrender a 10-0 lead but they conceded 40 unanswered points in the loss to the Roosters. Despite the result of this game playing no part in their position on the ladder, Bellamy has named a full strength side which includes the return of Jahrome Hughes from injury. It is horror news for the Broncos who can seal 4th place with a win and they will be without Shibasaki who was dropped after breaching team standards.
Head To Head
When you consider the stature and success of the Brisbane Broncos, their record against the Storm is astonishing for all the wrong reasons. The Storm have made them look like a QLD Cup side having won 17 of the last 18 meetings! They have won 14 of the last 16 as the away team including 10 in a row as an away favourite. A 7-1 line record in the last 8 as a road favourite highlights their dominance with defence the key to their success. The Broncos have scored more than 20 points in only 3 of their last 18 games in this series. Xavier Coates has scored a try in each of his last 3 appearances against the former club while Jahrome Hughes has 4 in his last 2 and 12 in 12 career games against the Broncos.
Stats That Matter
The Broncos could not have picked a worse time to run into the Storm. The Storm are an incredible 20-0 in their last 20 games following a loss with the Over hitting in 8 of the last 11. There have been 60+ total match points in all but three of those games with the Storm averaging more than 40ppg across those matches. The Over has hit in 67% of Broncos home games in the last year and 9 of their last 10 when hosting the Storm. The visitors have won their last 7 away games leading into this match with Will Warbrick scoring at least once in each of his last four games played in Queensland.
Prediction
Totals of 38, 46 and 38 points in their last three indicates that the Broncos attack has been on fire. It is worth mentioning that those victories came against teams outside the top 8 and three of the worst defensive sides in the competition. Backing the Storm on the back of a loss in a highly profitable play and one that we will be taking advantage of. Expecting an avalanche of kicks for the Storm wingers in a big win for the visitors.
Tips
Best Bet: Storm -3.5 ($1.90)
Value: Storm 41 Points or More ($7.50)
Same Game Multi: Storm WIN, Coates Anytime Try, Warbrick Anytime Try ($3.88)
Technically the Sea Eagles can make the eight it would require a minor miracle. We can safely pencil this in as Cherry-Evans last game for the club with Koula (knee) to miss out. Similarly, the Warriors can climb as high as fourth with a win and defeat for the two teams above them (Broncos and Sharks). Regardless, they will want to take winning form with them into the final series but will need to overcome the loss of Wayde Egan (hip).
Head To Head
The Warriors have not beaten the Sea Eagles on the northern beaches since 2020 and have won only 3 of the last 14 games as the away team in this matchup. The points have flowed in many of their battles with the Over hitting in 70% of their last 20 battles including 6 of the last 9 hosted by the Sea Eagles. Multiple Eagles have enjoyed playing the Warriors – especially the duo of Tom Trbojevic and Jason Saab. Trbojevic has scored 11 in 11 games against the Warriors while Saab has scored at least once in his 6 games in this series with 10 tries in total!
Stats That Matter
A 5-3 record in their last 8 as a road underdog suggests that the Warriors will be competitive. They may have to overcome a slow start as they have trailed at half time in 8 of their last 9 games following a home loss. The Sea Eagles have scored 98 points in their last two matches alone but the Under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games played at night. One man that could shine for the visitors is Leka Halasima as the youngster has scored at least once in 4 of the Warriors last 5 matches as a road underdog.
Prediction
A free-flowing brand of footy and the return of Tom Trbojevic to form has resulted in two relentless attacking displays from the Sea Eagles. The Warriors will try to stem the flow of points by completing their sets and kicking to the corners but as we saw against the Eels last week, they fall out of this comfort zone when forced to play from behind. The visitors have conceded an alarming number of tries down their right side which is great news for Lehi Hopoate who has been named to start on the left wing. Saab has a phenomenal record in this series, but we will be taking Lehi for 2+ as our value bet.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.90)
Value: To Score 2 or More Tries – Lehi Hopoate ($4.00)
Same Game Multi: Tom Trbojevic Anytime Try, Saab Anytime Try, Halasima Anytime Try ($12.49)
A come from behind win over the Storm means that the Roosters control their own destiny, but their oldest rivals have decided to make life hard for them. Despite having nothing to play for, the Rabbitohs have named their strongest squad possible. That includes the return of Wighton, Cody Walker and Cameron Murray to play his first and only game of the season. There is also good news for the home team with halfback Sam Walker back on deck after missing a week with concussion.
Head To Head
A Latrell Mitchell cut-out pass that led to an Isaiah Tass try was all that separated the two sides in Round 5 and ended what was a 4-game losing streak in this series for the Rabbitohs. Jye Gray has played just two games against the Roosters but has crossed for 3 tries. His opposing number (James Tedesco) has been just as devastating with 5 tries in his last 4 when taking on the Bunnies. The Roosters have won 8 of the last 12 as a home favourite and have averaged 26.8ppg in their last 5 home matches in this series.
Stats That Matter
There are some contrasting stats that need deciphering. The Over is 9-0 in the Roosters last 9 home games while the Under has held in 7 of the Rabbitohs last 8 games following a loss. The Under is 3-0 in the Rabbitohs last 3 games and 8-3 in away games played in the last year. Containing the Roosters attack will not be easy as they have averaged 31.5ppg across their last 10. Daniel Tupou has scored at least once in each of his last 6 home games while Tallis Duncan is aiming to cross for a try in a 5th consecutive game.
Prediction
With Sam Walker returning I am expecting the Roosters attack to be at its unpredictable best. The way that he engages the line, his creativity and pin-point kicking make him an invaluable asset. The Rabbitohs will be giving it their all but may need to score 30+ points to win the game as the Roosters have scored 28+ points in their last four home games. The best option is the Overs as the Roosters may give 1-2 of their big names an early shower if they have built up a big enough lead. Alex Johnston will have to wait until next season to break the try scoring record.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.85)
Value: Roosters 2nd Half 25 Points or More ($4.50)
Same Game Multi: Tupou Anytime Try, Tedesco Anytime Try, Jye Gray Anytime Try ($8.72)
Ivan Cleary was blasted for resting his entire starting side last week, but it means the Panthers will be fresh for this game and the finals series. In preparing for next week, the Panthers coach has named a very strong side with Brian To’o and Liam Martin the only two being rested. It is bad news for the Dragons who’d like to end the season on a high with Shane Flanagan naming the same 17 that went down 40-24 to the Sea Eagles last week.
Head To Head
The Panthers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings including a 46-10 win in the corresponding fixture last season. Nathan Cleary scored an unlikely hat-trick in that game and has scored at least once in 4 of his last 6 matches against the Dragons. The Panthers have won the last 4 as the away team in this series but have had a problem covering big starts with a 4-8 record at the line in the last 12 as the betting favourite. The Dragons have had serious problems putting points on the board against the Panthers with 20+ points in only 3 of their last 17 against them.
Stats That Matter
Defence is usually a priority for the Panthers in this spot with the Under holding in 7 of their last 9 following a loss. That goes against the recent trend in this matchup with the Over hitting in 4 of the last 5 meetings hosted by the Dragons. The Red V have covered the line in 5 of their last 7 as a home underdog and have averaged 24.4ppg in their last 4 at home. Tuipulotu loves playing at WIN Stadium and has scored at least once in his last 5 games at the ground.
Prediction
Following back-to-back losses in golden point and a big loss against the Bulldogs, the aim for the Panthers will be to be completely dominant in this game. The Dragons were poor last week and have conceded 40 points in consecutive games. Against a Panthers side looking to register a win prior to an away finals game they could be in trouble. Expecting the visitors to come out with an extreme level of intensity in the first 10-15 minutes and if the Dragons fail to match motors with them, this one could get very ugly.
Tips
Best Bet: Panthers -14.5 ($1.90)
Value: 61 Points or more ($4.20)
Same Game Multi: Jenkins Anytime Try, McLean Anytime Try, Tuipulotu Anytime Try ($7.81)
The Titans trailed 18-0 early in the first half against the Dolphins but managed to draw level on the stroke of half time. The Dolphins would eventually win the match 36-30 which leaves the Titans with one last chance to grab a win to possibly avoid the wooden spoon. Kini will start at fullback after returning off the bench last week with the duo of Carter Gordon and Cooper Bai to make their debuts in Des Hasler’s final game as coach. The Tigers battled hard against the Raiders but failed to score a point in the second half of the 24-10 loss. Skelton is unavailable (concussion) which has paved the way for Heamasi Makasini to make his debut.
Head To Head
A few years ago (2022) these two faced off in one of the worst games we have ever seen with the Titans winning 8-6. There haven’t been many more points since with the Under holding on in each of the last 5 meetings between them. There has been an average of only 31.0 total match points across those games and that trend has recently suited the Tigers who have won the last two meetings. The Tigers have lost their last 3 as the away team and have failed to cover the line in 7 of the last 8 encounters when installed as the favourite.
Stats That Matter
The Titans have ‘needed’ to win to avoid the wooden spoon for the last month, but it has had no impact on their results. They have lost their last 5 games and have failed to cover the line in their last 4. The Tigers have won and covered the line in their last 2 as a road favourite and last week showed excellent application defensively. The Under is 11-3 in Tigers games following a loss in the last year which lines up with the Titans 704 Under record at home over the same period. Both teams have conceded more than half of their tries this season down the right defensive third, so you want to be backing the left-sided players to score.
Prediction
There are some good signs for the Tigers moving forward. Despite having nothing to play for last week they turned out a commendable defensive display in a match which was supposed to serve as a celebration for the Raiders. In contrast, the Titans are the owners of the worst defence in the NRL with 30ppg allowed. In theory this game should have a similar scoreline to the Titans’ battle against the Dolphins last week, but I suspect that the Tigers will want to put forward another defensive effort to set the standard for next season.
Tips
Best Bet: Tigers WIN ($1.78)
Value: To Score 20+ Points – Only Wests Tigers ($3.60)
Same Game Multi: Taylan May Anytime Try, Makasini Anytime Try, Kini Anytime Try ($10.50)
According to many, the Bulldogs were ‘handed’ the two points by the Panthers last week as they opted to rest their entire starting side. The Bulldogs are in a position to do the same here but have named their strongest side with Kiraz the only absentee (ankle). Meanwhile, the Sharks improved to 6-1 in their last 7 with a big win over the Knights and get Jesse Ramien back from suspension for what promises to be one of the closest games of the round.
Head To Head
Defence has been the determining factor in most of their recent battles with the Under holding in 8 of the last 11 meetings. There has been an average of only 28.7 total match points across the last three battles with the Bulldogs winning the last two. The Sharks had won 6 in a row prior to that but are underdogs to claim the points here and have won only 2 of the last 8 clashes when installed as the betting outsider. Xerri had a double against his club in the Bulldogs 20-6 win earlier this season and will be eager to add to that total. The Sharks duo of Katoa and Trindall have both scored in 2 of the last 3 clashes.
Stats That Matter
Inconsistent away form is what has cost the Sharks a spot in the top 4. They have won only 2 of their last 7 as an away underdog and are 0-5 at the line in their last 5 matches as the away team. Big crowds have helped the Bulldogs to victory in their last 4 home games – three of which they have covered the line in. The Under is 3-0 in the Sharks last 3 away games and 5 of the Bulldogs last 6 matches played at Accor Stadium.
Prediction
Cannot remember the last time the premiership race was this wide open and both teams will fancy their chances. They will see this contest as an opportunity to prepare themselves mentally which means executing an 80-minute performance. Both teams prioritise defence and are the top two in the competition with respect to possession. The corresponding fixture went to golden point last season and there is a good chance of that repeating.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($1.90)
Value: Will The Game Go To Golden Point ($19)
Same Game Multi: Xerri Anytime Try, Katoa Anytime Try, 1st Half Under 21.5 points ($15.16)
The Raiders remarkable season was rewarded with the minor premiership. They celebrated the JJ Giltinan Shield with a win over the Tigers and Ricky Stuart has taken the opportunity to rest most of their key players including Weekes, Strange, Fogarty, Tapine, Starling, Hosking and Young. It paves the way for the trio of Asomua, Waitere and Roddy to make their debut. The Dolphins ended a 3-game losing streak with a 36-30 win over the Dolphins but a poor run of results in the last month has proved costly.
Head To Head
The Dolphins won the inaugural meeting between these two sides, but the Green Machine have won the last three – two of which have been decided in golden point. The Over has hit in each of the last three clashes with an average of 60.0 total match points across those games. Averillo has scored a try in each of his two games against the Raiders as a Dolphin while Tabuai-Fidow has 5 tries in his 5 career battles against the Raiders.
Stats That Matter
Astronomical totals have been the theme in recent Dolphins games with an average of 62.3 total match points across their last 10 matches! Both teams have scored 28+ points in each of their last three games, and they haven’t shown any resistance defensively. The Dolphins are 4-1 both straight up and at the line in their last 5 home games and it should come as no surprise that the Over has hit in the last four. Despite resting the bulk of their stars, beware the underdog Raiders as they have won 6 of the last 7 matches as the betting outsider.
Prediction
This total could be set at 60 and we would still be backing the Overs. The Dolphins have been able to pile on the points against some of the best teams in the competition so we can safely pencil them in to score at will against what is virtually a reserve grade side. Moreover, the Dolphins defence isn’t about to underdog a complete transformation which means the Raiders will contribute to the total. The visitors have a host of players very eager to knock the door down to play a part in the finals series in the coming weeks. The Overs is the best bet of the round.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 52.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 71 Points or more ($6.75)
Same Game Multi: Fuller Anytime Try, Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Try, Matty Nicholson Anytime Try ($14.82)
Those who think this game means nothing should keep in mind that the Raiders won their final three games last season. The Eels are building nicely with wins in 4 of their last 6 games which includes wins over the Warriors and Roosters in their last two. Winning is a feeling that the Knights know nothing about as they have lost their last 8 games. Dylan Brown will play his final game for the Eels and will ironically do so against his future club.
Head To Head
The Eels have won 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series including each of the last three at home. The have successfully covered the line in the last three clashes at CommBank Stadium with the Under holding in 4 of the last 6 hosted by the Eels. The Eels have led at half time in 6 straight games against the Knights and despite a host of low scoring games between them, Mitchell Moses has scored at least one try in 4 of his last 5 appearances against the Knights.
Stats That Matter
Despite spending most of the season in the bottom three, the Eels could finish as high as 10th with a win here. They have turned things around on the back of a commitment to defence and the kicking game of Mitchell Moses. The Under is 7-1 in the Eels last 8 games at CommBank Stadium and has also held in 75% of Knights away games played in the last year. The Knights have conceded a try to the opposing right centre in each of their last 6 games and to the opposing left winger in five straight which makes the duo of Addo-Carr and Penisini desirable try scoring options.
Prediction
To say that the Knights been embarrassing would almost be polite. They threw in the towel weeks ago and have conceded an average of 43.2ppg across their last 5. In contrast, the Eels are locked in defensively and are competing/playing for one another. They have held their last 5 opponents to 17.2ppg and have faced three teams in that stretch that will be playing finals footy (Storm, Roosters and Warriors). The Eels will end the season in style.
Tips
Best Bet: Eels -13.5 ($1.90)
Value: Eels by 51+ ($41)
Same Game Multi: Addo-Carr Anytime Try, Penisini Anytime Try, Dylan Brown Anytime Try ($10.37)