QLD came out with all guns blazing in Game II and on the back of a 10-2 advantage in the penalty count, were able to post a dramatic 26-24 win. The result means that we get a decider in front of a sell-out crowd of 80,000+ with NSW installed as firm favourite to clinch the series.
Team News
NSW Blues: The Blues have more injury clouds than an afternoon storm with Haas (back), Cleary (groin), Luai (infection), To’o (knee) and Young (groin) all questionable. Jacob Kiraz is the 18th man with Lindsay Smith and Bradman Best part of the extended squad. Barring that, Laurie Daley has named an unchanged side from Game II with Connor Watson retaining his spot on the bench despite a sub-par performance in Perth.
QLD Maroons: Maroons coach Billy Slater but his reputation on the line when he dropped captain Daly Cherry-Evans after the series opener, and his squad justified the decision. Cameron Munster was handed the captaincy and responded with a man of the match performance. He has since dropped another bombshell following an injury sustained to fullback Kalyn Ponga. Everyone expected Reece Walsh to be recalled but he has been named as 18th man with Tabuai-Fidow to play fullback, Shibasaki making his debut in the centres and Valentine Holmes shifting to the wing.
Head To Head
With the Maroons levelling the series the Blues have blown the opportunity of claiming the first whitewash since 2010. The Maroons extended their lead in the H2H to 71-61 (2 draws) but the Blues will be eager to bridge the series gap which currently reads 24-16 in favour of the Queenslanders. Brian To’o scored three tries in Game II and is now one of only 10 players to have scored a hat-trick in an Origin game. He replicated Tabuai-Fidow’s effort from the series opener last season. One of the Maroons biggest threats, Tabuai-Fidow has an incredible strike rate in State of Origin with 11 tries in 9 games.
Stats That Matter
The best bet (Over 41.5 points) and 1st Try Scorer selection (Brian To’o) both got the chocolates in Game II, but we are unlikely to see an abundance of points in this one. The Maroons have won 9 of the last 11 series deciders from 2006 onwards with the Blues coming away with a 14-4 win in the most recent decider last year. More than half of those games (6) were played in Queensland but of the four games played at Accor Stadium, the Maroons have won 3 of them. History suggests a low scoring game with 8 of the last 11 deciding games producing fewer than 42 total match points and 4 of them having no more than 30 total match points. Moreover, there has been an average of 33.36 total match points across these deciding games and that figure drop to 32ppg in the last four series deciders at Accor Stadium. The NSW wingers (Lomax and To’o) alternated first try scorer honours in the first two games of the series and have combined for 10 tries in the last 5 Origin games played. Looking for more trends… the Under is 5-0 in the last 5 Origin III matches and dating further back, the underdog is 8-0 at the line in the last 8 Origin III fixtures.
Prediction
Had it not been for inaccurate goal-kicking the series would have already been over. The Blues are the better attacking side by a country mile and have formed extremely dangerous combinations out wide. Latrell Mitchell and Brian To’o were unstoppable in Game II and there is no reason why we will not witness a repeat in the decider if they can get enough ball. The Maroons saving grace is that the referee is likely to keep the whistle in the pocket allowing both teams to slow the ruck. This will make it harder for both teams to get momentum through the middle and shift the ball wide to their attacking weapons. The Blues kicking game and clash touches from their big names will be the difference between the two sides. Blues to come away with a narrow win.
Tips
Best Bet: Under 42.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: 21-30 Total Match Points ($6.25)
1st Try Scorer: Zac Lomax ($7.50)
Anytime Try Scorer: Zac Lomax ($1.78), Brian To’o ($1.70), Tom Dearden ($5.60)
Man of the Match: Isaiah Yeo ($11), Liam Martin ($26), Reuben Cotter ($81)
Same Game Multi: QLD +13.5, Under 50.5 points, Brian To’o Anytime Ty Scorer ($3.78)