Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final | Tips & Preview

Having been the two best teams all season long, it is only right that the Hurricanes and the Chiefs meet to decide the 2026 Super Rugby Pacific champion on Saturday night. Both teams flexed their muscles emphatically in their respective semifinals to punch their ticket to the grand final, and if the one meeting that these teams have had this season is anything to go by, we’re in for a thrilling decider. The Chiefs won that one 17-22 in golden point, as Wallace Sititi emerged as the hero by scoring off a partially-charged-down Damian McKenzie drop goal attempt to see the hosts come out on top. This time around we get a showdown at the Cake Tin and anticipation couldn’t be much higher.

The Hurricanes enter the final in fine form. Clark Laidlaw has his side firing on all cylinders, with some of the best attacking rugby ever been played in Super Rugby being produced by his squad. The 66 points that they put on the Brumbies in the qualifying final was a real statement and last week’s 57-21 semifinal win was just as impressive. Up by just five points at halftime, the Hurricanes put the foot down in the second half, as Cam Roigard scored a few minutes in, acting quickly on a sharp counter-ruck from the Canes, before Josh Moorby powered his way over the line minutes later. Asafo Aumua then provided the highlight play of the game, linking up with Kini Naholo to receive a tap-back from a cross-kick, before fending off Torian Barnes and steamrolling Stephen Perofeta to score another five-pointer. This all happened within 15 minutes to see the hosts’ lead balloon out to 38-14, before Ereatara Enari, Naholo and Moorby all scored later in the piece to make it a blowout. The nine-try attacking effort from the Hurricanes resulted in another huge score, with them now averaging 45 points per game across their last eight matches, and that includes their lowly 12-point output in the final round of the season when Laidlaw rested most of his first-string players. Roigard has been at his threatening best since returning from injury in the final round, and he was a constant danger on Saturday night, while the likes of Du’Plessis Kirfi, Asafo Aumua, Warner Dearns and Caleb Delany brought real punch to the forward pack. Jordie Barrett and Billy Proctor have been the very definition of rock-solid this season, barely putting a foot wrong, and their stability has been crucial to the success of the attack of the rest of the backline.

The Chiefs have almost been as hot as the Hurricanes in the dying weeks of the season, with a 25-point thumping of the Blues sending them into the postseason in style, before overcoming the Reds 46-24 in the qualifying finals and then dismantling the Crusaders 49-12 in the semifinals. Averaging 43 points scored across their last seven games, the Hamiltonians also bring an elite attacking run into the final, and Damian McKenzie has found some sharp form to be the driving force. He was the key part of the hosts’ 42-point first half on Friday, including providing a delightful grubber kick in behind the Crusaders defence to set up Kyren Taumoefolau for his second try of the night. His kicks were contestable and his clearances often got his team into good field position, while his 7/7 record off the tee ensured that the Chiefs continued to pile on the points. There was constant class on display across the backline on Friday, with Lalakai Foketi also providing some important touches to finish with three try assists, while Taumoefolau, Leroy Carter, Isaac Hutchinson and Liam Coombes-Fabling also looked dangerous. This rampaging performance from the backs was a real warning shot to the Hurricanes, but there was also plenty of hard work done up front. Tupou Vaa’i was the pick of the bunch, running hard all night and finishing with a game-high 15 carries while also racking up 14 carries. Crucially, he also finished off an excellent try in the first half, started by a delightful chip and regather from Coombes-Fabling, who then linked up with Foketi, who found Vaa’i on his inside for a thrilling try. The loosies of Simon Parker, Luke Jacobson and Samipeni Finau didn’t stand out quite as much but got through a stack of work and Samisoni Taukei’aho had another industrious outing, putting his hand up for starting honours in the black jersey.

Jono Gibbes has a couple of key injuries to deal with heading into the final, with Foketi (calf) and Hutchinson (knee) having both been ruled out, seeing Kyle Brown return from injury to slot in at centre. Carter comes into the XV at right winger and Reon Paul joins the bench in the #23 jumper. The Hurricanes also had a casualty from the semifinals, with Delany (consussion) being ruled out, as Isaia Walker-Leawere takes his starting role. Devan Flanders returns from injury to start at blindside, moving Brad Shields to the bench, while Jacob Devery takes Raymond Tuputupu’s spot at replacement hooker, following Tuputupu’s lineout struggles last week.

The current forecast is predicting rain to hit the capital right around kick-off time, meaning this final may well not end up being the fireworks-filled extravaganza that many are expecting between two outstanding attacks. Even in dry conditions, we saw just 39 total points when the Canes and Chiefs met in mid-April, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similarly low total on Saturday night. Both teams are big up front, and that will set up a slow contest in the wet conditions which will favour the visitors. The likes of Parker, Jacobson, Vaa’i and Josh Lord will thrive if the game is kept in tight and that will make the Chiefs very competitive in this clash, making them value as 4.5-point underdogs.

Best
Under 56.5 ($1.90)

Next
Chiefs +4.5 ($1.95)

Value
Power Plays — Either Team to Lead at Halftime by 1 – 5 & Either Team to Win by 1 – 10 ($4.00)

Try Scorer
Samisoni Taukei’aho ($14 First, $2.40 Anytime)

Same Game Multi
Under 56.5 / Samisoni Taukei’aho Try / Du’Plessis Kirifi Try ($31.45)