Hong Kong form expert Luke Middlebrook provides his thoughts on every race at the Hong Kong meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday, 19 January.
Steps into a more suitable contest after tackling stronger fields in recent starts, where he has been well supported and on the cusp of breaking through for his maiden victory. James McDonald remains in the saddle, drawing ideally in barrier 1, and gets every opportunity to capitalise.
Selections: 2-5-11-3
Showed significant improvement last start with the addition of blinkers, despite drawing wide and being ridden for luck. He charged home late into second behind Masterofmyuniverse, a formline that stands out as promising. He looks ready to break through.
Selections: 12-11-1-7
Stands out as the form choice. Having won impressively four starts ago, he hasn’t had much go his way in three subsequent runs, but the switch to jockey Blake Shinn can ensure he gets every chance to go one place better.
Selections: 1-4-2-6
Didn’t enjoy the best run in transit last time when unplaced as the odds-on favourite. He has since returned to the trials, performed well, and deserves another chance.
Selections: 5-6-9-2
Made a strong impression on debut, racing three-wide with cover from a wide draw before finishing a clear second, leaving a good gap to third. With barrier 3, he maps to get a more economical run and looks poised to go one better. #7 Noble Fans should further improve second-up, as many John Size-trained horses do, after closing well for a 1.5-length third at this course and distance on debut.
Selections: 6-7-2-4
Chases his second Group 1 triumph and an extraordinary ninth consecutive victory following his dominant half-length success in December’s G1 Hong Kong Sprint. It will take a significant dip in form to see him toppled.
Selections: 1-3-4-8
Has caught the eye in two local starts without breaking through, first flashing home late into fifth after encountering traffic issues in the straight, and then running on strongly from a wide gate to finish 1.75 lengths fourth, recording the fastest final 400m and 200m of the meeting. Moving into barrier 1 with Zac Purton booked to ride strengthens his chances.
Selections: 9-13-7-12
Endured a tough run in the G1 Hong Kong Mile, finishing an unlucky seventh after drawing the widest barrier and encountering traffic issues in the straight. This small-field contest with a likely moderate tempo presents an ideal opportunity for him to break through at the top level.
Selections: 5-1-8-3
Checks plenty of boxes for the in-form John Size stable, heading into this race third-up after two promising efforts. He closed strongly for ninth on debut from a wide draw behind Johannes Brahms, before finishing a close-up third to Packing Angel second-up. With barrier 4 and James McDonald booked to ride, he is ready to win.
Selections: 4-9-3-10
Was touted last season as a leading Derby contender. After two luckless runs over the mile at Sha Tin and 1800m at Happy Valley this preparation, where he was unable to show his true ability, he now steps up to what should be his optimal trip—the Derby distance.
Selections: 2-5-6-3
Pulled off a long-odds win on debut two starts ago, and he backed it up with a narrow second-place finish to Swift Ascend, which is a solid formline here. He’s been kept ticking over with a standard barrier trial between runs and can go one place better.
Selections: 14-6-8-3