Injuries, late-notice call-ups, and general chaos has surrounded UFC 303 from the jump but ultimately fans are left with an exciting card headlined by fan favorites Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka. UFC 303 comes to us from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and is poised to be an action-packed celebration of violent fighters.
Broken toes and a media tour couldn’t stop Alex Pereira from saying “chama” when he received the call to save UFC 303’s main event. Standing across from him in the T-Mobile Arena will be the same man he fought for the vacant light heavyweight title to begin with.
A match-up destined for violence, Pereira and Jiri Prochazka originally met in 2022 and fulfilled an exciting nine minutes before Pereira had his hand raised. The devastating power of both men have been long reported and it is no secret both are seeking a finish this weekend.
The current champion and betting favorite, Pereira is entering this fight on short notice while recovering from widely publicized toe injuries. Despite the subpar circumstances, confidence remains high for Pereira as he enters a match-up with a familiar foe. Head coach Glover Teixira and the team around Pereira have planned for another showdown with Prochazka and the fact that it comes on short notice does little to change the game plan they have in store for the offensive juggernaut.
One of the most unconventional, aggressive, and powerful fighters in the division, Prochazka will not shy away from a quick and dirty scrap with “Poatan”. There is something to be said about early wrestling success Prochazka had in their first showdown, but he desires most to beat Pereira in a striking contest. Since that bout, Pereira has also improved substantially in his takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet.
At the end of the day, Prochazka will charge forward and look to land heavy shots on the feet. That said, the game plan of Pereira seems to be revolving around catching Prochazka on the way in. A counter-punching sequence elicited the win for Pereira the first time around and it stands to be a strong tenet for victory against Prochazka.
If a full camp preceded this rematch, Pereira would be a substantial betting favorite. Even with the subpar circumstances he enters this fight on, he still carries a significant technical advantage in the area where this fight is most likely to take place. There is little to suggest Prochazka can drastically improve on what he did against Pereira, and betting on “Poatan” to beat himself is seldom one I take.
Bet: Alex Pereira By KO/TKO @ $2.10
Though he came up short in his UFC debut against Movsar Evloev, the following 13 months have been a whirlwind of success for Diego Lopes. Now stepping in as the co-main event, the future for Lopes includes a potential top 10 ranking and title contention with a win this weekend.
3-0 since his organizational debut just over a year ago, the stunningly active prospect finished all three of those wins in approximately 90 seconds each. Notable for his aggression and versatile offense on the regional circuit, Lopes has not missed a step in carrying the same intensity into the Octagon.
Lopes is best known for his pursuit of finishes on the mat but he has been refining his striking to a noticeable degree and stands to find immense success there against a defensively liable opponent. That said, even with poor defensive skills, Brian Ortega has proven difficult to break.
In what may end up being an unstoppable force meeting a nearly immovable object, Ortega is in for another long war of attrition if he hopes to secure victory at UFC 303.
An experienced veteran settling into a peaceful mindset with his wife and kids, Ortega is finding zen outside of the cage but invites the opposite when the cage door closes. A chaotic and durable submission specialist, Ortega is truly an excellent grappler with otherworldly toughness. A lackluster striking game puts him into danger but he has shown remarkable survivability throughout his career.
This weekend, Ortega is poised to take another drubbing on the feet but stands to make it interesting if he can survive the first half of the fight. As with all quick finishers, it’s a question how Diego Lopes will fare down the stretch of a gritty war with a rugged foe. If he cannot get Ortega out of there early, Lopes may find discomfort in the unrelenting pressure forced on him. That said, Lopes looks to have all the tools necessary to stifle Ortega and put on a breakout performance.
The longer this fight goes, the better for Ortega but this might just be the night for Lopes to make himself a star.
Bet: Diego Lopes Head to Head @ $1.67
A fleet of injuries, ailments, and subsequent replacements altered this match-up many times through but ultimately Roman Dolidze and Anthony Smith will be the ones go to war at UFC 303.
The betting favorite, Dolidze is looking to shake a two-fight losing streak to Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov. Despite what his record suggests, Roman Dolidze does his best work on the mat. He tends to force finishes by KO/TKO but Dolidze’s background is firmly rooted in grappling. Nonetheless, Dolidze prides himself as an offensive juggernaut and whether standing or grappling he aggressively pursues a finish. This determination to end things early often works out for him but has proven a detriment down the stretch.
The uniquely durable Anthony Smith will surely be looking to exploit any shortcomings in the gas tank of his opponent. A longtime veteran, Smith notched a surprise upset win over Vitor Petrino earlier this year. The guillotine victory took only two minutes and has led to a resurgence in the confidence of Smith.
Though his future as a title contender remains uncertain, Smith stands to find success in the second half of this contest. Well-rounded and most importantly well-conditioned, Smith may take some lumps early on as he tries to find his timing against a comparably chaotic foe. If he can survive the early portion against a fast-starting, late-notice Dolidze, that urgency will turn to desperation as Dolidze’s gas tank wanes.
With nearly 60 professional MMA bouts to his name, Smith has proven himself to be a perennial fighter who doesn’t go away easily. The hard-charging nature of Dolidze is likely to create some early excitement but Smith has been there before and should know exactly when to turn it on and pull away.
Bet: Anthony Smith Head to Head @ $2.15
After coming up short in a championship outing against Raquel Pennington earlier this year, Mayra Bueno Silva is ready to rebound against #7 ranked Macy Chiasson. The odds for this one are razor close for good reason as both have shown significant upside in recent years.
#3 ranked Bueno Silva notched four wins en route to her title shot and three of those were finished with submissions. Despite only being a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Bueno Silva has demonstrated an aware and aggressive submission game. Bueno Silva has developed her striking game a bit in recent years but her greatest strengths still lie in tie-ups. That said, she may need to lean on her footwork and striking if she hopes to secure a win over Chiasson at UFC 303.
A towering 5’11” (180cm), Chiasson effectively plays the role of bully inside the cage. Her technical proficiency has grown significantly since debuting in the organization over five years ago; though she carries a reputation as a bit of a lumbering brute, there is a deceptive sharpness to her game at this point.
A lengthy and physically powerful fighter, Chiasson will have several advantages here beyond her advanced capabilities as a grappler. This fight looks to be an opportunity for Chiasson to impose her will and drag Bueno Silva anywhere she wants. If and when Chiasson finds early success with takedowns, she will have little difficulty snowballing her success from there.
Bet: Macy Chiasson Head to Head @ $1.90
Despite losing the opportunity to represent Ireland “alongside” Conor McGregor, UFC 303 will serves as the biggest fight of Ian Machado Garry’s career.
A minor betting favorite this weekend, Garry started the year with a competitive decision win over Geoff Neal and is looking to finally ascend into major fights. Having amassed a 7-0 record in the UFC and 14-0 overall, Garry has developed a justified reputation as a sharp striker with fast hands and acute vision.
Garry has been rocked on occasion but overall seldom truly struggled; in fact, it could be said he has demonstrated to be the cleaner striker in every one of his professional bouts. He faces the stiffest test of his career when he takes on notable veteran Michael “Venom” Page. Best known as “MVP”, the outspoken and flashy Englishman has plenty left in the tank even after a long career excelling in Bellator.
Now 37-years-old, Page has developed intense security and comfort in his style and remains one of the most uniquely dynamic striking threats in the division. A smooth and savvy striker with excellent reflexes, Page is a challenge for anyone that cannot consistently threaten him with wrestling.
Historically, Page has immense success in striking bouts; though he finds himself the underdog at UFC 303, he will be the quickest and most skilled opponent Ian Machado Garry has ever faced. Credit is due to Garry for his sleek countering that has only gotten better with time, but Page is a fighter who seems to be finding his grove again.
With takedown defense that has leveled up significantly in recent years, Page should be able to force a striking contest. There is little to suggest Garry will divert from his usual tendencies and present an overly aggressive, active style this weekend. Left with what is likely to be a slow paced kickboxing bout with “MVP”, UFC 303 may open with the first loss of Garry’s career.
Bet: Michael Page Head to Head @ $2.20
Pereira v Prochazka: Pereira Wins By KO/TKO
Lopes v Ortega: Diego Lopes Head to Head @ $1.67
Dolidze v Smith: Anthony Smith Head to Head @ $2.15
Bueno Silva v Chiasson: Macy Chiasson Head to Head @ $1.90
Garry v Page: Michael Page Head to Head @ $2.20
Pyfer v Barriault: Joe Pyfer By Submission @ $7.00
Fili v Swanson: Cub Swanson By KO/TKO @ $7.00
Jourdain v Silva: Charles Jourdain By Points @ $2.75
Talbott v Ghemmouri: Payton Talbott By KO/TKO @ $1.50
Robertson v Waterson-Gomez: Gillian Robertson By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $2.85
Buday v Arlovski: Andrei Arlovski By Points @ $3.80
Tsuruya v Hernandez: Rei Tsuruya By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $1.72
Simon v Oliveira: Ricky Simon @ $1.38