Te Aroha hosts their postponed eight-race card on Thursday, with the track rated a Heavy10 and the rail in the true position. Expecting conditions to remain Heavy given the amount of rain that has fallen during the week.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the eight races at the Te Aroha meeting on Thursday 12 November below:
Concoction (#1) resumes for the O’Sullivan/Scott stable, having previously been trained by Tony Cole. He was last seen at the races finishing 5th at Tauherenikau back in May. His trials since the stable change have been eye-catching, where he has been strong to the line without being let off the bridle. He maps to settle midfield with cover from a middle draw under Masa Hashizume. He should take some beating if he cops what may be a testing Heavy track.
| 1. Concoction (8)SCRATCHED: | |||
Withallmywish (#8) was backed off the map here on debut three weeks ago, where she closed off nicely from the back of the field to be beaten just a short margin for 3rd. She should have derived plenty of natural improvement from her debut experience heading here. She maps to settle back in the field from the wide draw, which may not be a disadvantage if the rail has begun to chop out. That debut effort rated well enough to suggest she would take some beating in this if she cops the track.
| 8. Withallmywish (9) 55.5kg3 | |||
| Showed promise on debut last start when beaten just 0.3 lengths into third over 1150m at this track. Should take the next step today and is among the leading contenders. | |||
Vougeot (#3) comes here off a 5th here three weeks ago, where he was a touch one-paced when the sprint went on turning for home and just battled to the line thereafter. He maps to settle midfield from the wide draw in what shapes as a genuinely run race, and Matthew Cameron takes the reins, which looks a positive. He produced his career peak figure on a Heavy10 when breaking his maiden, and I’m keen to speculate on him showing up at the price if the track is in the worst end of the Heavy range.
| 3. Vougeot (14)SCRATCHED: | |||
Because (#2) heads here deep into his campaign off a last start 3rd at New Plymouth just over two weeks ago, where he sat handy and fought on fairly well in the straight. He is rock hard fit and looks suited by the possibility of testing conditions underfoot. Tom Wigram takes the reins, and his 3kg claim sees the 11yo seasoned campaigner carry just 55kg here. He needs the track to be well and truly Heavy to be playing a part, but he is a threat at odds if it remains testing.
| 2. Because (5) 55kg53153 | |||
| Was below his best two back at Woodville then ran a much better race last start when third over 2000m at New Plymouth Raceway. Sure to be in the mix. | |||
Indian Falls (#9) got back and found the line just fairly from last when 11th at Ellerslie last week, possibly finding the opposition a touch too sharp on a firmer track over 1200m that day. She looks as suited as any getting on to what will likely be a Heavy track, whilst stepping out over 1400m should be much more up her alley. She maps to settle midfield with cover this time from a middle draw, off what looks an even tempo on paper. An improved showing at odds wouldn’t surprise.
| 9. Indian Falls (2) 54.5kgx2200 | |||
| Comfortably held over 1200m at Ellerslie 7 days back, finishing 7 lengths away in 11th. Not doing enough to warrant consideration. | |||
Sergeant Reckless (#4) is a 4yo War Decree gelding on debut for the James/Wellwood team. He has trialled impressively ahead of this, and George Rooke remaining aboard from those trials on raceday only aids his chances further. He maps to settle off the speed from the handy draw, where I expect Rooke will just be looking to get him comfortable and in a rhythm early at his first raceday start. He could take some beating on debut if he cops the track.
| 4. Sergeant Reckless (4)SCRATCHED: | |||
Rakonui (#11) comes here off a 2nd at Pukekohe less than two weeks ago, where she sat just off the speed and fought on well in the straight. She maps to roll forward from the wide draw under George Rooke, with the blinkers now going on possibly signalling some early intent. She should be suited by the prospect of a Heavy track better than most in this, and I’m happy to be with her at the price.
| 11. Rakonui (6) 56.5kg7×342 | |||
| Was out of the placings two back but turned things around more recently, beaten 1.1 lengths when second over 1600m at Pukekohe. Shaping up nicely and can go on with it. | |||
Foo Foo (#4) won narrowly on the line here three weeks ago, sitting handy to the speed before taking over at the 400m and kicking on strongly to get his maiden win. He maps to settle handy to the speed again here from the wider draw under Samantha Collett. He should appreciate the conditions more than some at the pointy end of the market, and could go on with it here if he doesn’t have to overdo it early.
| 4. Foo Foo (4) 58.5kgx2621 | |||
| Scored his maiden success last time as favourite out over 1400m at this track. Heading the right way and should measure up again. | |||

