Matt Markham has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the 13 races at the Ashburton Harness meeting on Thursday 12 November below:
After not getting the run to suit at Oamaru last Thursday, Shezza Vinny (6) wasn’t really a factor. Has spent the week at the beach with Diamond Racing and that’s a formula that has worked really well in the past. Expecting an aggressive drive to get onto the speed and a strong performance at a big price.
Selections: 6-12-4-11-3
| 6. Shezza Vinny (6) 9x3p0 | |||
| Resumed nicely but no luck since. Cops a tricky alley today and needing her best | |||
Never an easy task tipping a maiden trotter on debut, especially in such a big field but hard not to be impressed with the trial last week at Addington of Be On The Express (5) looks a nice trotter going forward and if able to step away and land handy today then should be right in play for a very long time.
Selections: 5-8-13-2-4
| 5. Be On The Express (5) | |||
| Debutant who qualified on top earlier in month. From a nice family and big hope. | |||
Backed as if unbeatable first up at Addington last week, Valorous (3) proved to be exactly that and once again hurt the punters. The money keeps coming though and with a run under the belt you’d expect a fitter and strong prospect to step out here and from the good draw a win should be forthcoming.
Selections: 3-12-11-5-13
| 3. Valorous (3) 27×4 | |||
| Resumed nicely when beaten fave at HQ. Further improvement likely; bright hope. | |||
A huge amount of support came for Eternity Franco (3) on debut at Addington but it all came unstuck pretty quickly. Had shown plenty of promise in the lead up to that debut though so it might pay to stick with the ship and from the good draw here a bold performance would come as no surprise.
Selections: 3-11-6-9-5
| 3. Eternity Franco (3) 0 | |||
| Let down punters with inglorious display on debut. Danger with manners today. | |||
A very convincing win here last Sunday by Sheila Laxon (12) and stays in the same grade for it too. Loves racing on her home track and tends to hold her form well when she trots into some. A bit of luck early and a nice drag into it and she can finish this off stronger than most.
Selections: 12-1-5-17-18
| 12. Sheila Laxon (12) 95671 | |||
| Gritty 4 days ago in lesser grade. Should hold her form and looks hard to beat. | |||
Two very strong runs in the last two performances from On Ya Bike (2) should have the talented two-year-old ready to break through here. Was really tough at Kaikoura after doing it the hard way and looks beautifully placed here from the good draw. The bet of the day.
Selections: 2-3-6-5-1
| 2. On Ya Bike (2) 6×022 | |||
| Has found one better in last couple of runs. From closer marble he looks the one | |||
Lovely opening price for three-year-old trotting filly Queensland Spirit (5) earlier in the week. She comes out of the NZ Trotting Oaks behind Duchess Maria at her last start so will find life a whole lot easier here today. Can handle the standing starts too so no worries there. Looks a strong each way play.
Selections: 5-10-8-3-1
| 5. Queensland Spirit (5) 42126 | |||
| No hope after copping a check, 6 Nov. Earlier form good and can’t be overlooked. | |||
A beautifully bred debutant out of the Hayden and Amanda Cullen bar, Zeta Jones (7) has plenty of upside judging by her trial victory and up against a small field here, she should be able to find her way onto the top end at some point and be a little too good for her rivals.
Selections: 7-3-1-4-6
| 7. Zeta Jones (7) | |||
| Trial winner sure to gather strong support from Cullen barn. Can win on debut. | |||
The raw speed of Donna’s Crunch (5) make her a dangerous prospect at Ashburton. Made up stacks of ground to finish second behind a quality filly at Oamaru on the grass but showed just how much she can muster when winning on debut too. If she’s within half a dozen lengths of them turning for home, they might be in trouble.
Selections: 5-1-4-7-2
| 5. Donna’s Crunch (5) 182 | |||
| Closed with purpose at Oam and only miss was from rough alley. Right in this. | |||
Tidy effort from Happy Harriet (6) second up at Kaikoura after a good run to win first up. She’s got a bit of lick when they ask her for it and if she can slot herself into a nice position here from the outset then look for her late because she’ll be coming with plenty of intent.
Selections: 6-14-8-3-13
| 6. Happy Harriet (6) 50×14 | |||
| Resumed in fine fashion then good again at Kaik. Could be over the odds in this. | |||
The best of the rest behind a potent Tee Ball at Kaikoura, Rosario (18) is in here OK despite the handicap. Needs to make a really quick beginning, but can do that and settle in front of more than are behind. He’s a pretty talented horse with a future and no surprise to see him go close here.
Selections: 18-15-2-16-17
| 18. Rosario (18) 18312 | |||
| Led the chase of Tee Ball at Kaik after proving too touch on Meth grass. Cover. | |||
She’s had her fair share of troubles, but there’s never been any doubt about the ability of Lottie’s Moment (8) and she’s shown that time and time again in workouts and trials. On her home track today with a chance to wind up and her high speed should carry her a very long way.
Selections: 8-16-13-3-15
| 8. Lottie’s Moment (8) 6×500 | |||
| Closest at finish on Mt Harding grass. Capable on her day & recent trial winner. | |||
Beautiful map here for Quicker Than Quick who should be following the leader throughout. He’s built nicely through this campaign and with the right kind of run here he’s a big chance of bursting up the lane and grabbing the victory in the last.
Selections: 1-6-2-14-10
| 1. Quicker Than Quick (1) 30342 | |||
| Put in two strong grass shifts during Oct and place bait off his inside marble. | |||
