The US Open is currently underway at Flushing Meadows, and tennis expert Evan Psarras has provided us with his best betting plays of Day 10.
Despite winning only 4 of 13 second serve points (31%) and being broken four times, Sabalenka was still able to beat Townsend in straight sets. The top seed cannot afford a repeat when she takes on Noskova as the Wimbledon champion has held serve at the same rate as Sabalenka for the tournament (80%) having faced tougher opposition. Noskova won 52% of 2nd serve points in the win over Kostyuk and if she can replicate that figure here ill give herself an opportunity to win. The concern for Noskova is that she is yet to win a set against Sabalenka. The world number one has won both prior encounters including a 6-3 6-4 win at Indian Wells earlier this season. Sabalenka had 11 aces in that match and was broken just once. I don’t think she will be as dominant on serve this time around which is why we will be backing the Overs and Noskova to win in three.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.73)
Value: Noskova WIN ($3.10)
Pegula made a fast start against Cirstea and was never headed. She is now one win away from making the semi finals of the US Open for a third consecutive year. A battle against fellow American Emma Navarro means at least one local will be in the final four but history and the market suggest this is Pegula’s match to lose. That is a justifiable comment to make as she has a career 4-0 record against Navarro which includes a comfortable 7-5 6-2 win when they last met in Cincinnati a few weeks ago. Pegula converted 5 of 14 break opportunities and a better conversion rate would have seen the score even more lob sided. Navarro’s 2nd serve is the weakest part of her game and an area that Pegula has exposed in the past. Expecting more of that here and it will begin with an early break.
Tips
Best Bet: Pegula -4.5 ($1.83)
Value: 1st Set Score After 2 Games – Pegula 2-0 ($3.05)
