NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 27

Grant Atkins

• Canterbury are 6-9 with a 6-9 cover record
• Brisbane are 11-13 with a 15-9 cover record
• Home teams cover at 58%
• The under is 10-5 in Canterbury games
• The under is 14-10 in Brisbane games

Brisbane have a tremendous cover record under Grant Atkins while Canterbury have a poor one while both teams are big under sides under his whistle.

Ref Lean

Brisbane +10.5 @ $1.87 & Under 52.5 @ $1.90

Wyatt Raymond

• Gold Coast are 2-6 with a 3-5 cover record
• The Dolphins are 4-2 with a 3-3 cover record
• Double digit favourites cover at 41%
• Night games go under at 57%

Wyatt Raymond is an under official but with three of his last four going over there is no total lean in play here.

Ref Lean

No Lean

Adam Gee

• Souths are 8-9 with a 9-8 cover record
• The Roosters are 18-9 with a 13-14 cover record
• The under is 12-5 in Souths games
• The under is 16-11 in Roosters games
• The under is 15-8 in 2026
• The under hits at 58% when there is a double digit favourite

Adam Gee has been a huge under official this year and with both teams having a strong under record when he is in the middle, the under is a clear play.

Ref Lean

Under 55.5 @ $1.94

Gerard Sutton

• The Warriors are 4-8 with a 4-8 cover record
  The Sea Eagles are 12-9 with a 12-9 cover record
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 57%
• Favourites of 8 or more cover at 59%
• The under is on a 15-3 run in Sutton games

Big favourites have a tremendous record under Gerard Sutton while he is on a ridiculous under run with 15 of the last 18 games going under.

Ref Lean

New Zealand -10.5 @ $1.83 & Under 49.5 @ $1.94

Nick Pelgrave

• Favourites are 1-0 against the spread
• The over is 1-0

This is just Nick Pelgrave’s second game in charge at NRL level so we are too early to get any lean on his officiating.

Ref Lean

No Lean

Todd Smith

• Cronulla are 13-5 with a 10-8 cover record
• Melbourne are 10-4 with a 9-5 cover record
• Home underdogs of 8 or more cover at 56%
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games

Both the Storm and Sharks have winning records and positive cover records under Smith and he is a known over ref but there is no leans in this one.

Ref Lean

No Lean

Liam Kennedy

• The Dragons are 4-5 with a 5-4 cover record
• The Eels are 8-4 with a 5-7 cover record
• The under hits at 56.3% when the total is 50+
• The over has hit in the last three games

There are no angles at play with Liam Kennedy in the middle, who has long operated in staying within range in all situations.

Ref Lean

No Lean

Ashley Klein

• The Panthers are 20-7 with a 16-11 cover record
• The Tigers are 3-3 with a 4-2 cover record
• Favourites cover at 55%
• Favourites of 12.5 or more cover at 57%

Big favourites tend to cover under Ashley Klein at a better than even clip and Penrith have a sound record under his whistle.

Ref Lean

Penrith -19.5 @ $1.90