The first Test of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry is finally here, with South Africa hosting New Zealand at the storied Ellis Park. Two old foes lock horns at one of the world’s most famous rugby grounds, with plenty of intrigue being built ahead of the series opener.
South Africa have had a good 2026 so far, starting with a breeze of a victory over the Barbarians. That 80-31 win two months ago set the tone for what has been a thrilling run of attacking rugby from Rassie Erasmus’ team. In their three Nations Championship home games, points continued to be free-flowing for the Springboks, with a 45-21 win over England, 42-28 victory against Scotland and a 43-0 shutout of Wales. Then hitting the road for the first time of the year, South Africa squeaked past Argentina in a 17-10 triumph in Buenos Aires in a much less convincing performance a fortnight ago, although that was a significantly weakened Boks team that was without the likes of Jasper Wiese, Cheslin Kolbe and Damian Willemse in the starting team.
New Zealand haven’t been as red-hot in their 2026 fixtures, but they got through their home legs of the Nations Championship unscathed. A hairy 34-32 win over France started the Dave Rennie reign, with 47-17 and 40-21 wins over Italy and Ireland, respectively, in the second and third round. Since arriving in the Republic, the All Blacks have won all three of their games against the clubs teams of SA. Their 38-21 win over the Stormers in their first hit-out was less than convincing, but big wins over the Sharks and Bulls since then saw the ABs look much more comfortable.
The health of Damian McKenzie’s ankle has been one of the big talking points heading into the first Test, but he has recovered in time to start at fullback. Similarly, Cam Roigard has overcome a calf niggle to start at halfback, with Ruben Love on his outside, while Josh Lord and Fabian Holland form a relatively inexperienced second row, especially considering that there is no specialised lock on the bench.
It’s an experienced and imposing 23 that has been named by the Springboks. Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Wiese are just some of the forwards in the starting team, while the back line is star-studded. Willemse adds plenty of danger at the back, while Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has risen to be an impressive playmaker at #10. There’s plenty of experience elsewhere, with Damian de Allende earning his 100th Test cap, with Jesse Kriel and Kolbe on his outside.
I’m surprised to see South Africa as such narrow favourites in the series opener. The All Blacks have only won one of their last four games against the Boks in South Africa and the class and experience of the hosts will come to the fore on Sunday morning. Dave Rennie hasn’t been shy in rolling out plenty of fresh faces at Ellis Park but it’s a huge task ahead of the likes of Love, Holland, Lord and Josh Moorby. It’s certainly a talented All Blacks team, but I expect them to be outplayed by the hosts’ kicking, size and finishing talent in this first Test, making the Boks and enticing bet.
Tips
Best
South Africa -6.5 ($1.95)Value
Power Plays — Cheslin Kolbe, Damian Willemse & Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu 2+ Tries Combined & South Africa Score 30+ Points ($7.00)Try Scorer
Malcolm Marx ($13 First, $2.30 Anytime)Same Game Multi
Malcolm Marx Try / Damian Willemse Try / Quinn Tupaea Try ($24.30)
