Waikato were never able to really get going in 2025 and they will be expecting more in 2026. Finishing with a 6-4 record before being bundled out in the quarterfinals by Otago, it was a mediocre showing from the Mooloos and they’re largely running it back with the same squad. Veteran first five-eighths Lima Sopoaga and Aaron Cruden have hung up their boots after doing some heavy lifting for Waikato last year, with Taha Kemara set to have a big season in the #10 jersey, while Bailyn Sullivan, Liam Coombes-Fabling, Tepaea Cook-Savage and Gideon Wrampling have all moved on. Still, there is plenty of class in this outfit, including Oli Mathis, Xavier Roe and Daniel Sinkinson, which should see the Mooloos stay competitive, but it’s a very tough first matchup.
Bay of Plenty also had their season ended by Otago last season, this time in the semifinals, but they certainly have the tools to go further in 2026. They have retained almost all of their first-string team, while welcoming back former Steamer Joe Webber, alongside his sevens buddies Frank Vaenuku and Roderick Solo. With experience throughout the pack, in the form of Kurt Eklund, Seuseu Naitoa Ah Kuoi and Nikora Broughton, as well as in the backs through Reon Paul, Lucas Cashmore, Cole Forbes and the aforementioned sevens squad, this is a very dangerous BOP outfit.
It’s a pair of strong 23s named for Thursday’s season opener, and the Mooloos deserve respect at home, but I expect BOP to get more and more comfortable as the game goes on, seeing them come out on top. At just a 2.5-point line, BOP are the bet.
Tips
Best: Bay of Plenty -2.5 ($1.95)
Value: Power Plays — Cole Forbes OR Reon Paul 1st Try Scorer & BOP Score 35+ Points ($21)
Try Scorer: Reon Paul ($17 First, $x Anytime)
Same Game Multi: Reon Paul Try / Daniel Sinkinson Try / Kurt Eklund Try ($16.08)
Tasman have high expectations again heading into this campaign, with no shortage of stars in their squad. Although Levi Aumua and Quinten Strange have departed, there remains a slew of elite talent available for the Mako, and we can see that in the 23 that new head coach Jono Phillips has named. David Havili, Noah Hotham, Kyren Taumoefolau, Eli Oudenryn and Antonio Shalfoon are just some of the heavy-hitters in the XV, while new recruit Richie Asiata and Shannon Frizell are set to feature at some point in the season. Phillips is somewhat of an unknown in the head coaching world, but the team that he will be rolling out will be capable of putting up plenty of points, especially against this North Harbour outfit.
It was an awful 2025 for North Harbour and it doesn’t look like things are going to be any easier for them this season. They had to wait until their last game of the season to get their first win, and they have had around 30 players depart in the offseason, bringing in an almost brand new team to 2026. Jed Melvin was the standout performer last season and he captains the team for this run, while Kade Banks features as the star back. Veteran halfback Bryn Hall returns to the province and he will start on Friday night, with Fijian Drua flanker Motikiai Murray being the other one to watch. It’s youth and inexperience galore for the visitors, with 11 debutants in the squad, including all eight members of the bench, and that hardly sets them up for success.
It’s a shame that the second game of the season is such a mismatch. This game will be a blowout from the opening kick-off and sadly for Harbour, the 20.5-point line doesn’t look like anywhere near enough. I wouldn’t be surprised if the final margin surpasses 40 points.
Tips
Best: Tasman -20.5 ($1.87)
Value: Power Plays — Tasman to Win by 41+ (refund if Tasman win by 31 – 40) ($4.50)
Try Scorer: Kyren Taumoefolau ($8.50 First, $1.48 Anytime)
Same Game Multi: Tasman -20.5 / Kyren Taumoefolau Try / Noah Hotham Try ($4.51)
Counties Manukau made it consecutive playoff appearances last season before giving Canterbury a real fright in the quarters, taking them to extra time before losing 15-23. It was a tough way for the Steelers to bow out and they will do well to get that far again this season, with over 20 players leaving in the summer, including stars Etene Nanai-Seturo and Hoskins Sotutu. That said, it was a lot of secondary players that moved on, with the spine of the back line, Jonathan Taumateine, AJ Alatimu, Gibson Popoali’i and Tevita Ofa all returning and starting on Saturday. Veterans Atunaisa Moli, Jimmy Tupou and Adam Brash all start in the pack in what is a solid Steelers side.
Taranaki will this year be led by one of their legends, Jarrad Hoeata, who takes over as head coach. After a quarterfinal exit in 2025, there is certainly room for improvement for this proud rugby province, and the big, physical team that Hoeata has named for Round 1 suggests that they’re capable of being contenders. Josh Jacomb being named in the All Blacks squad is certainly a blow for the Bulls, with Sam Clarke being handed the #10 jersey, but the returning Seta Tamanivalu will provide stability and hard running on his outside. Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens is the other major weapon in the back line, while a rock-solid forward pack promises to give Taranaki their fair share of ball.
Taranaki come into the season with big wraps, as they often do, but it feels like a lot of that is to do with their historic success. It’s a strong squad at their disposal, but depth is not their strength and this Counties team is not one that will roll over easily, especially at home. While the Steelers don’t possess a lot of top-tier talent, they have a lot of proven NPC performers and should not be such large underdogs at home.
Tips
Best: Counties Manukau +10.5 ($1.87)
Value: Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($3.00)
Southland’s season begins with Stag Day, as they host their old foes Otago. It’s always a tense game between the two provinces, even when Southland have been below-par in recent seasons, they have been able to compete with Otago at home, losing last season’s battle by nine points, after winning two of the prior three contests. Looking at Southland’s 23, Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa is the glaring omission, with the bustling No.8 being a shock All Blacks selection, leaving a big hole at the back of the scrum, but the starting loosies trio of Sean Withy, Clem Halaholo and Sam Fischli is a more-than-capable one. Jack Taylor leads the front row, while Mitch Dunshea adds real grunt in the second row to help form a gritty pack. Teens Jimmy Taylor and Jay Reihana are the talking points in the backs, while Glen Vaihu and Scott Gregory add experience.
Otago will be hoping to go one better in 2026 after losing the final last year to their Canterbury foes. Lucas Casey was the star of their season and he’s set for a bumper campaign alongside fellow star Christian Lio-Willie with the pair having been named in the starting team on Saturday, alongside Oliver Haig who rounds out the loosies. With Joseva Tamani and Henry Bell also starting, it’s an electric pack, while it’s more of a steady backline, spearheaded by Jona Nareki and Cameron Millar. Moana Pasifika star Patrick Pellegrini has been named on the bench to make his Razorbacks debut.
I expect Otago to be able to enjoy the majority of possession, but their lack of spark in their back line does give me some concern, especially considering the nature of the match that is likely to take place in Invercargill. The hosts will put plenty of pressure on and while Southland’s youngsters have a lot on their shoulders, I am not picking this game to be a breeze for Otago.
Tips
Best: Southland +12.5 ($1.90)
Value: Otago 1-12 ($3.30)
Canterbury enter the season as defending champions and with every expectation to go back-to-back. A few of their big names from the title-winning team have left, inclucing Zach Gallagher, Tom Christie and Braydon Ennor, but this remains a very impressive squad, especially if Richie Mo’unga remains available. Dominic Gardiner, Dallas McLeod, Ngatungane Punivai, Jamie Hannah and Chay Fihaki are just some of the players at new head coach Alex Robertson’s disposal, and they are all included in the XV for Saturday’s clash. There’s class throughout, with proven Super Rugby players filling the pack, and with plenty of weapons out wide to finish Canterbury’s attacks and none other than Mo’unga on the bench, making this an imposing Round 1 lineup.
Auckland were terrible last year, finishing the season with just two wins. Over 15 players have departed over the break, including Adrian Choat, AJ Lam, Tanielu Tele’a and Millennium Sanerivi, but Steven Bates has the luxury of leaning on Stephen Perofeta, who’s moved north to the City of Sails to start at first five-eighth. Fellow newcomer Pita Ahki starts on his outside, making up an impressive back line that also boasts Issak Fines-Leleiwasa and Payton Spencer on the bench. With Josh Beehre, Angus Ta’avao and Che Clark in the pack, this is an improved Auckland squad but they have their hands full in Round 1.
Unfortunately for Auckland, this is a loaded Canterbury 23 and it’s hard to see it being a winning start to their season. We saw in Super Rugby Pacific just how imposing of a ground One NZ Stadium was for the Crusaders, who won all five of their games there since its opening, and I expect Canterbury to enjoy the same benefit. It’s essentially a Super Rugby-calibre team that the hosts are fielding and that class is going to shine through.
Tips
Best: Canterbury -13.5 ($1.90)
Value: Canterbury 11-20 ($3.50)
Northland’s 5-1-4 record last year wasn’t enough to get them into the postseason, with a final round defeat seeing them narrowly miss out. They get another crack this time around with a very similar squad, headlined by the likes of Rivez Reihana, Sam Nock and Brumbies midfielder Hudson Creighton, who are the starting 9-10-12 on Sunday. Josh Goodhue returns to the far north, joining Allan Craig in the second row, while veteran loosie Rob Rush is joined by big No.8 Terrell Peita and Waratahs flanker Lachlan Hooper.
Manawatū had their moments in 2025 but only managed to record three wins on their way to a 11th-place finish. It’s another exciting squad in Wesley Clarke’s possession, and you only have to look at Sunday’s team to see that. Brayden Iose, TK Howden, Ngani Laumape, Drew Wild, Jordi Viljoen and Taniela Filimone are just some of the talents in the starting XV, but it’s the Turbos’ depth that is going to be what holds them back this season.
Both teams have plenty of strong attacking talent and that’s going to make for a thriller of a game in Whangãrei. The daytime conditions will encourage running rugby and I am expecting both teams to run onto the park and show free-flowing footy. The over hit in six of the Turbos’ final seven games last season and I fancy that run to continue into 2026.
Tips
Best: Over 62.5 ($1.90)
Value: Northland 1-12 ($3.10)
Wellington stumbled to a 10th-place finish last season, with just three wins to their name at the end of the year. They were never able to string any momentum together and that’s resulted in over a dozen new faces in their squad, although none of which are proven game-changers. Du’Plessis Kirifi’s omission from the All Blacks sees him start the season as vice captain, with Caleb Delany leading the team, but there are plenty of newbies among Sunday’s 23. There are six debutants in the starting team and another four on the bench, signalling a time of change in the capital, and perhaps not an exciting one.
Hawke’s Bay’s 2025 came to an end at the hands of the eventual champions, losing in the semifinals despite finding some real form late in the season. Sadly for the Magpies, some important players, including Miracle Fai’ilagi, Devan Flanders and Isaia Walker-Leawere, Nick Grigg, Kienan Higgins, Ere Enari, Pouri Rakete-Stones and Tom Parsons, have departed. That’s made room for some big recuits though, with Bailyn Sullivan, Tyrone Thompson and Darby Lancaster all joining the team. Lancaster is absent from Sunday’s 23, but with the likes of Folau Fakatava and James Lowe in the squad, it’s still a very impressive Hawke’s Bay unit.
I am rather low on this Wellington team, which makes me more than happy to avoid them as just 4.5-point underdogs. They are going to struggle to put points on the board and Hawke’s Bay certainly aren’t going to have the same issues. Even at home, this cold well get ugly for the Lions.
Tips
Best: Hawke’s Bay -4.5 ($1.87)
Value: Hawke’s Bay 11-20 ($4.40)