Ruakākā hosts a nine-race program on Saturday, with the track rated a Soft5 and the rail out 6m. A clear forecast through to raceday should see the track come up closer to a Good4 come the first on Saturday.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the nine races at the Ruakākā meeting on Saturday 1 August below:
Scolera (#5) had every chance here last start when settling in the 1×1 throughout, but couldn’t get near the winner and race rival Nicconi County. The key to her chances will be a positive ride early, as while there does appear to be some speed in this on paper, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall into their positions and moderate the tempo for a furlong. She typically runs her best races when up on the speed and can produce a better showing if ridden positively from the outset.
| 5. Scolera (3) J: Jasmine Fawcett 56kg 8X842T: Jim Collett |
The Autumn Queen (#12) is a locally trained 3yo son of The Autumn Sun coming here at start number two for Kenny Rae. He found the line with good purpose from the back on debut here when finishing into 3rd, despite not having all favours in the straight. He should be better for the experience and now gets the services of Craig Grylls from the inside draw. Expect him to again settle back in the field but should be getting home strongly late if the gaps go his way.
| 12. The Autumn Dream (1) J: Craig Grylls 56kg 3T: Kenny Rae |
Iridescent (#6) is a locally trained mare who is a dual acceptor here and in Race 1, but looks more likely to take her place here. She comes into this off a last-start win here at this course and distance, where she was able to lead and hold her rivals at bay in the straight. She maps to go forward again from the low draw, where she can either lead or trail depending on early pressure. Although she’s a three-win mare taking on some more seasoned campaigners, she looks to have more upside than most of these and can go on with her winning ways.
| 6. Iridescent (2) J: Jasmine Fawcett 54kg 85161T: Michelle Bradley |
Merriama (#9) was last seen finding the line strongly from the back for 4th here over 1400m last start, putting in some good late strides before running out of room just short of the line. She looks suited now getting out over a mile and retains the services of Michael McNab from a favourable draw. Expect her to settle back of midfield again in what shapes as only an evenly run race, but she should get her chance to be finishing over the top of them late. Not a strong maiden field and she can take plenty of beating.
| 9. Merriama (5) J: Michael McNab 56.5kg 30X64T: Kylie Hoskin |
Alker Traz (#1) is a locally trained 4yo son of Wyndspelle who produced an eye-catching effort for 3rd here on debut over 1400m, making up significant ground from the back and powering through the line. The additional 200m here looks ideal off that effort, particularly given his final 200m split on debut was the fastest of all his closing splits. He gets a significant swing in the barriers, where he should be able to hold a much handier position from the inside gate. Looks awfully hard to beat.
| 1. Alker Traz (1) J: Jasmine Fawcett 58.5kg 3T: Michelle Bradley |
Arcadia (#9) is a 3yo Contributer filly on debut for Donna Logan, having been scratched at the barriers at her only attempted raceday start as a 2yo. She placed in a recent trial behind some open class horses, where she was in the worst part of the track with jumps jockey Nick Downs aboard but still kept on nicely to the line. Expecting her to find her feet early from the wide draw, which should be fine given there looks to be a strong tempo engaged. She finds herself right down in the weights carrying just 51kg after stable apprentice Tom Wigram’s claim. Can run a bold race on debut.
| 9. Arcadia (11) Scratched: | |||
Bourbon Proof (#2) ran a much improved race for his new trainer on his now local track here at this course and distance last start, finishing off soundly into 2nd. Given he was over six weeks between runs heading into that assignment, he should be much better for the outing heading here. Michelle Bradley has tinkered with his gear ahead of this, with the application of visor blinkers potentially helping to switch him on. Expect him to take up a forward position from his wide draw under George Rooke in a race that doesn’t look to have much tempo engaged. Can go one better.
| 2. Bourbon Proof (7) J: George Rooke 59.5kg 95062T: Michelle Bradley |
Arabella (#15) is another locally trained galloper coming here third-up for Michelle Bradley. She was last sighted finishing off strongly for 3rd here over 1200m, where she didn’t corner too well but stayed on nicely in the straight thereafter. With that second run under her belt, the rise to 1300m looks ideal. She gets a significant swing in the barriers, which may well see her settle a couple of pairs closer as a result. Expecting this race to be run at a frantic tempo, and she can be sneaking runs up the fence and finishing off strongly late.
| 15. Arabella (2) J: Matthew Cameron 56kg 30X03T: Michelle Bradley |
Sweet But Psycho (#2) was very good in defeat here at this course and distance last start, where she took a while to get balanced up in clear galloping room but savaged the line late for 2nd. She maps to again get back in the field from her wider draw, which should be no knock given there looks to be an even-genuine tempo on paper. Expecting McNab to present her right down the outer and give her every chance to go through her gears in clear air this time around. Hard to beat.
| 2. Sweet But Psycho (6) J: Michael McNab 59kg 75432T: Lance O’Sullivan & Andrew Scott |

