NRL Tips & Preview | Round 22

The Sydney Roosters are remarkably up to second on the ladder despite playing some very patchy football of late. They keep on winning but it has not been on the back of being able to score, Trent Robinson’s team being held to 28 or fewer points in 10 straight games. The Roosters have covered just three of those matches. That does not bode well for the Roosters covering as a notable interstate favourite. The Roosters have covered just one of seven away from Allianz and are 13-22 against the number as a favourite away from Allianz. They also cover at just 41% when playing a Top 8 team. North Queensland have been strong defensively of late, conceding 18 or fewer in three of their last four, and that sets them up well here. Home underdogs off a win cover at 58% while the Cowboys have covered four of their last five as a home outsider. The Cowboys have won three of the last four against the Roosters and can push the Tricolours again. Jake Clifford is having an outstanding tryscoring season with seven tries in 18 games. He has scored twice in eight appearances against the Sydney Roosters. Hugo Savala has six tries in 10 games playing in the centres.

Tips

Best: North Queensland +5.5 ($1.90)
Next: North Queensland Win ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Jake Clifford ($26 First, $4.40 Anytime)
SGM: Jake Clifford Try/Hugo Savala Try ($11.85)

On paper this looks a complete mismatch with the Dragons anchored in last and assured the wooden spoon while the rising Dolphins are set to play in their first finals series. The bet in this one though is St George Illawarra getting 12.5 points. It is a grip on and pray kind of watch but home underdogs of 12.5 or more cover at 66% across the last four seasons while interstate favourites of 12.5 or more cover at a lowly 29%. The Dragons are best at night, where they have covered four of five, while they have covered five of six getting more than a converted try. The Dolphins are 2-5 against the spread when an interstate favourite, 2-6 against the spread off a double digit win and 2-5 against the spread against bottom five teams. The plus is the play. Tyrell Sloan is by a big margin the most dangerous Dragons tryscoring threat. He has five tries in his last five games and has scored in two of four against the Dolphins. The Dragons concede 45% of tries down their right edge and that sets up well for the in-form Connelly Lemuelu, who has three tries in his last six games.

Tips

Best: St George Illawarra +12.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins Under 31.5 ($1.90)
Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($11 First, $2.15 Anytime)
SGM: Tyrell Sloan Try/Connelly Lemuelu Try ($6.97)

Canterbury may have left their run a little too late but moving Matt Burton to the centres and playing Stephen Crichton in a playmaking role has given Cameron Ciraldo’s team hope. While the attack remains stunted at best – they remain a bottom three attacking side – their defence has been the best in the competition of late, conceding 12 or fewer in five of their last six. Melbourne must now breakdown the Bulldogs without Cameron Munster and Harry Grant. That sets up well for an under game where Melbourne will not score and Canterbury are unlikely to go nuts. The under is a remarkable 18-4 when the Bulldogs are off conceding 12 or fewer and 30-16 when they are off a win. When a favourite, the under hits at nearly 60%. On the Melbourne side, the under is 4-1 when they are an underdog and 4-0 when they are an outsider at AAMI. This game will finish closer to 20 than 42.5. Melbourne’s edge defence is diabolical and that works out well for quality line-runner Jacob Preston, who has 17 tries in his last 36 games. Matt Burton has scored in two of his last three games since moving to the centres, where he has 15 tries in 25 games.

Tips

Best: Under 42.5 ($1.90)
Next: Melbourne 10 Points or Less ($3.70)
Tryscorer: Jacob Preston ($14 First, $2.90 Anytime)
SGM: Jacob Preston Try/Matt Burton Try ($6.85)

The Titans have improved sharply under Josh Hannay and with the Warriors a particularly poor favourite, Gold Coast are a confident bet this week. The Titans have been strong of late, scoring 38-plus in their last two. They have covered nine of their last 12 as an underdog so the market has typically got them wrong. Gold Coast have also been very good against the Warriors of late with six wins in the last nine meetings and seven covers in the last eight clashes. This is also just a bang-up spot for the Titans with home underdogs of a try or more off a double digit win covering at 67% while interstate favourites off a loss cover at 38%. The Warriors are 14-27 against the spread when favoured by four or more and are far too short in this one. New Zealand are weakest defensively on their left edge and that bodes well for Arama Hau. Hau has six tries in 16 starts this season including scoring when the Titans last played the Warriors. Jayden Campbell is in sizzling form with nine tries in 16 games in 2026 while he has five four-pointers in eight showings against the Warriors.

Tips

Best: Gold Coast +4.5 ($1.90)
Next: Gold Coast Win ($2.55)
Tryscorer: Arama Hau ($26 First, $4.10 Anytime)
SGM: Arama Hau Try/Jayden Campbell Try ($11.67)

The NRL returns to the spectacularly stunning Glen Willow Oval in Mudgee on Saturday evening and Canberra getting a huge start are the best bet of the weekend. This line is utterly ridiculous. Penrith have been well below their best for over a month, scoring 24 or fewer in four of their last five. Canberra, by contrast, are playing their best football of the season, posting 34-plus in their last three and conceding 16 or fewer in four of six. They get the all-important Owen Pattie back from suspension and they have won two of the last three against Penrith. The Raiders have covered 10 of 13 off scoring 30 and five of seven as a double digit outsider. Penrith are just far too oversubscribed by the market. They are 2-8 against the spread as a double digit favourite while they have covered just two of 10 at night. Canberra are a chips-in job here. Owen Pattie has been in sensational form since returning to the starting team with two tries in four games. Tom Jenkins is on the throes of a record-breaking season with 26 tries in 18 games.

Tips

Best: Canberra +10.5 ($1.90)
Next: Penrith Under 27.5 ($2.00)
Tryscorer: Owen Pattie ($41 First, $7.25 Anytime)
SGM: Owen Pattie Try/Tom Jenkins Try ($11.27)

There was a big watch on team lists on Tuesday given the big injury toll that has hit Newcastle with Dylan Lucas and Dylan Brown both ruled out for the rest of the season. There was speculation that Kalyn Ponga would miss out here and while he is no certainty to play, he has been named, with Jermaine McEwen returning in the backrow and Sandon Smith named to play halfback. Brisbane have rightly dropped Gehamat Shibasaki and Preston Riki. It is hard to stomach Brisbane being so heavily favoured. They have covered just four of 11 at Suncorp and just two of eight against Top 8 opposition. The Knights are 31-18 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8 and travel well, covering 14 of 22 interstate. The plus is the way to bet this one. Brisbane concede more tries through the middle than any other team, allowing 36% of tries through their middle channel. That sets up well for Trey Mooney, who has five tries in 17 games this season. Newcastle concede 45% of tries down their left and Kotoni Staggs has 20 tries in his last 39 games.

Tips

Best: Newcastle +5.5 ($1.90)
Next: Newcastle Win ($2.55)
Tryscorer: Trey Mooney ($51 First, $8.75 Anytime)
SGM: Trey Mooney Try/Kotoni Staggs Try ($18.26)

South Sydney’s injury toll is severe in terms of quality with Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Murray and David Fifita all out and Tallis Duncan named on an extended bench to return. With so much talent out, it is hard to see how Souths can run with a red-hot Cronulla. The Sharks have scored 28 or more in three of four while they have conceded 18 or fewer in six of seven. The Sharks have won five of the last six against the Rabbitohs. They are 23-14 against the spread at Shark Park and are 21-13 against the number in day games. Souths, by contrast, have covered just two of 11 away from Accor and just one of five getting a start of eight points. The Sharks can run up a score in this one. Teig Wilton has seven tries in 16 games in 2026 and loves playing Souths with three tries in six games when he has started against the Bunnies. KL Iro has 24 tries in 31 games across the last two seasons. Ronaldo Mulitalo is one of the great finishers with 109 tries in 145 games including six in eight games against Souths.

Tips

Best: Cronulla -9.5 ($1.90)
Next: Cronulla 19+ ($2.70)
Tryscorer: Teig Wilton ($19 First, $3.40 Anytime)
SGM: Teig Wilton Try/KL Iro Try/Ronaldo Mulitalo Try ($10.21)

All eyes will be on the final match of Round 22 despite the lowly standing of both the Tigers and the Eels as the game looks to see how Benji Marshall’s team responds after a week of drama. Marshall showed no bottle in recalling Adam Doueihi to the halves while again tinkering with his outside backs. This is a game though the Tigers really need to step up and the numbers suggest they will. They have covered six of eight against the Eels while teams off conceding 56 or more cover at 59%. Notably teams off conceding such a number playing a team outside the Top 8 cover at 70%. The Eels are poor favourites and cover at just 37% off conceding 30 or fewer while favourites of a try or more when two teams 10th or worse meet cover at just 22%. The Eels are at their most vulnerable on their right edge and that sets up well for Samuela Fainu, who has four tries in 11 games this season. Sione Fainu is not a renowned tryscorer but he has scored twice this year and is playing as well as any Tiger.

Tips

Best: Wests Tigers +7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Wests Tigers Win ($2.75)
Tryscorer: Samuela Fainu ($26 First, $4.20 Anytime)
SGM: Samuela Fainu Try/Sione Fainu Try ($21.91)