San Antonio’s ascension in 2026 continued through the Western Conference Finals, seeing them knock off the defending champions in Game 7 to see the team reach their first finals since 2014. It was a thrilling series and San Antonio’s defence ended up being the dominant factor, helping Mitch Johnson and his team record a monumental 111-103 Game 7 triumph. On the road, the odds were against the young San Antonio heading into the decider, but they quickly built a double-digit lead inside the opening first quarter. That lead faded away late in the second quarter, but it didn’t take long for the visitors to get back in front, with a 16-2 third-quarter run reopening an 11-point lead, which saw San Antonio keep control for the rest of the fight. It was another dominant interior performance from Victor Wembanyama, with OKC getting up just 13 shot attempts at the rim and, even more impressively, they converted just 38.5% of them. Equally as importantly for San Antonio, they had a decent shooting night of their own, making for a solid offensive night to complete the upset. Their 119.6 offensive rating was on the back of a 55.1% eFG%, helped by the fact that they got out in transition as often as possible, especially off defensive rebounds. Wembanyama finished as the star of the series and perhaps announced himself as the best player in the world in the process, averaging 27.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 2.7 blocks per game, often dominating in his minutes on the floor. Stephon Castle also excelled on both ends, averaging 18.0 points and 7.6 assists, although his 4.6 turnovers per game showed one major weakness, while his backcourt buddy De’Aaron Fox showed his value with some timely buckets in what was otherwise a quiet series from the star, especially after missing the first two games. Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie were all incredibly valuable on both ends, and while Luke Kornet was often outplayed in his minutes, his massive chase-down block in Game 7 was a game-changing moment for his team.
New York’s conference finals victory was much more straightforward, effortlessly sweeping Cleveland. All four wins came by double-digit margins, though Game 1 was one of the more bizarre playoff games to take place, as New York came back for an overtime win after trailing by 22 points with less than eight minutes to play. From then on, however, it was all NY, as their offence really started to hum, ending the series with offensive ratings of 126.7, 123.5 and 132.9 in Games 2, 3 and 4, and that paved their way to the finals. Unsurprisingly, Jalen Brunson was elite across the four games, leading New York’s offence with 25.5 points and 7.8 assists per game, but there were plenty of other contributors for Mike Brown’s side. Mikal Bridges’ hot run continued, as he shot a 64.3% TS% to post 18.5 points per game, OG Anunoby got better as the series went on as he returned from a hamstring injury, with an efficient 16.3 points per game and some more stellar defence, while Karl-Anthony Towns had some good box score stats with 15.8 points and 12.0 rebounds per game, getting the better of Cleveland’s All-Star front court as he shot 8/16 from deep. Landry Shamet was even more lights-out, going a bonkers 11/12 from three in just 79 minutes, with some of those threes coming in big moments, and Josh Hart and Miles McBride were both solid defensively while having a sub-par shooting series. Mitchell Robinson’s broken finger is potentially a big factor heading into this series. The bench big mysteriously suffered the injury between the end of the conference finals and the start of the finals, but he was a big part of New York’s success in their 2-1 record against San Antonio in the regular season, including in their in-season tournament final victory. Robinson was a +9 and +10 in the two games that he featured in (both of NY’s wins) and Brown will be sweating on his health heading into Game 1.
San Antonio are comfortable favourites in the market, for both Game 1 and for the series win, but I am not taking them at this price in either. Of course, Wemby will cause them all sorts of problems in the interior and the likes of Castle, Harper and Champagnie all look ready for the moment. On the flip side, so do Brunson, Towns, Anunoby and co. and there are less weak links for San Antonio to go at, compared to the undermanned OKC. Anunoby is perhaps the best perimeter defender in the league and will slow down whichever wing or guard is hot, while Bridges, Hart and McBride all stand as solid one-on-one defenders. When on offence, New York will try to get Towns matched up on Wembanyama to bring him out of the paint, which presents another challenge for Johnson to solve, and I simply have too many questions about San Antonio’s matchup with New York to consider them at this price.
Series Bets
Series Correct Score — New York 4-2 ($6.00)