There are just five games on the schedule in Round 15 with all of the Origin stars absent from action but we still have some fascinating games including two Top 8 matchups that will have a major bearing on September.
The best total of Round 15 is unquestionably the under in the opening clash between Souths and Brisbane. Both teams are missing key attacking weapons with Latrell Mitchell still sidelined for Souths while Reece Walsh leads a long list of outs for Brisbane. These teams don’t often play high scorers with the under 8-4 in the last 12. The last seven at Accor have tallied 44 or fewer. Both teams are in huge under spots. The under is 9-5 when Souths are favoured at Accor and 17-8 when they are off scoring 14 or fewer. The under is 17-9 when Brisbane are off conceding 28 or more. The 50.5-point total will not last. Brendan Piakura comes off his first try of the season and runs against the leaky Souths right defensive edge that has given up 42% of their tries. The Broncos’ worst defensive channel is through the middle and Brandon Smith at his best is one of the best dummy half burrowers in the game.
Best Bets
Best: Under 50.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 42.5 ($3.10)
Tryscorer: Brendan Piakura ($29 First, $4.50 Anytime)
SGM: Brendan Piakura Try/Brandon Smith Try ($20.44)
Both teams have a huge number of outs this week with the Dolphins missing five players to State of Origin while the Roosters are without seven but it is Kristian Woolf’s team that looks far better placed to deal with this one. The Roosters are missing three spine players and their three-quarter line looks a complete mess and totally incapable of handling the hot Dolphins outside backs. The Roosters have dominated this matchup but this is a great spot for the Phins. The Dolphins are 11-6 against the spread off conceding 14 or fewer, 13-8 against the spread against Top 4 teams and 33-20 against the number at night. The Roosters cover at just 40 per cent when playing a Top 8 opposition. The Dolphins should run wild here. Tevita Naufahu has nine tries in 11 NRL games including three doubles in his last seven. Jamayne Isaako has 10 tries in 11 games this season and is finishing as well as any winger. Herbie Farnworth is running against a makeshift centre and he has two tries in three games against his former club.
Best Bets
Best: Dolphins -5.5 ($1.90)
Next: Dolphins 13+ ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Tevita Naufahu ($9.50 First, $1.87 Anytime)
SGM: Tevita Naufahu Try/Jamayne Isaako Try/Herbie Farnworth Try ($5.71)
New Zealand will be without seven front-liners this week so laying such a large number at home seems preposterous. The Warriors typically aren’t reliable propositions when heavily favoured. They are 4-13 against the spread when favoured by at least eight points while they are 1-10 against the spread in that spot at Mt Smart. They have covered just eight of 26 full stop at their home ground that they have not played at for nearly two months. Cronulla have named a much stronger team and did win 36-22 when these teams met in Round 5. The Sharks are 18-14 against the spread as an underdog. Cronulla can win this. Both teams are vulnerable on their left edge defensively so doubling up both right edge backrowers. Billy Burns is having his best season in the top grade and it has resulted in four tries in his eight games as a starter in 2026. Marata Niukore scored in his only start this year while he has scored in two of his three starts in the second row against the Sharks.
Best Bets
Best: Cronulla +9.5 ($1.98)
Next: Cronulla Win ($3.40)
Tryscorer: Billy Burns ($31 First, $4.80 Anytime)
SGM: Billy Burns Try/Marata Niukore Try ($18.65)
Parramatta have really dug in the last two weeks and that should see a low-scoring game when they host Canberra. The Eels attack has been non-existent all season, scoring more than 22 in just two of their last 10, but it has been their resilience in defence that has impressed since their bye, conceding 28 and 14. When two bottom five teams meet, they are typically under games, landing at 63%. Both teams are in under spots too with the under 11-7 when the Eels play a bottom five team and 22-13 when they play at CommBank. The under is 25-19 when the Raiders play on the road and 22-16 when they are off a loss. This total is too high. Canberra concede a remarkable 52% of tries down their right edge making Kitione Kautoga one of the better bets at odds this week. He has just three tries in 22 games for the Eels but plays like an edge who will develop into a good tryscorer. Brian Kelly has been in good form with three tries in his last six games. Sebastian Kris has four tries in his last three games.
Best Bets
Best: Under 49.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 42.5 ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Kitione Kautoga ($26 First, $4.20 Anytime
It is hard to take any other position than to side with Tigers coach Benji Marshall and declare last Sunday’s 68-0 loss to Penrith anything but embarrassing. It was a complete and utter humiliation. The Panthers may have cleared out as the best team in the NRL and the Tigers may well have been hit hard by injury but the effort and execution was startlingly poor. It is that level of humiliation though that typically inspires a bounceback, making the Tigers an elite play this week. There have been five teams since 2008 who have conceded 68 or more points and all five covered the next week. Teams off a loss of 60 or more are 10-1 against the number. Favourites of a try or more off conceding 50-plus cover at 67%. The Tigers have covered four of five when favoured and four of five at Leichhardt. The line is not nearly big enough. Taylan May has been outstanding since moving to the Tigers with nine tries in 13 games. Jahream Bula is the most dynamic back at the club and has six tries in eight games. Kai Pearce-Paul is having his best tryscoring season to date with four tries in 11 games.
Best Bets
Best: Wests Tigers -5.5 ($1.90)
Next: Wests Tigers 13+ ($2.80)
Tryscorer: Taylan May ($10 First, $1.94 Anytime)
SGM: Taylan May Try/Jahream Bula Try/Kai Pearce-Paul Try ($11.97)