Match Preview
New South Wales jumped to a 1-0 series lead in the most extraordinary of circumstances, needing some fortuitous luck and a questionable decision to send Kalyn Ponga off to claw back a 20-0 deficit to win in the final minute with a miraculous James Tedesco catch. The Blues left with the win but the Maroons were the better team and left with both the moral victory and the cover.
It is quite extraordinary that the Blues again go in favoured given the disparity in coaching ability that was there for all to see as New South Wales started in the worst way possible with Laurie Daley seeming to offer little in the way of adjustments. The Blues are rolling out Laurie Daley for his seventh series and that should give Queensland confidence they can run down the series deficit. He has won just one of six series and lost last year with NSW incredibly short favourites to win. Billy Slater has won three of the four series in charge and certainly seems to have his finger on the pulse of the modern game more than his counterpart.
Laurie Daley has once again made a meal of his selections, notably stunning the state by dropping star second rower Haumole Olakau’atu for the solid-but-uninspiring Dylan Lucas. Confusingly Stephen Crichton was not given a chance to prove his fitness while Mitchell Moses will play having not played a club game since missing the opener with a hamstring strain. On the positive side Payne Haas returns from injury while Api Koroisau brings in some creativity off the bench.
Slater surprised by leaving Reece Walsh out of the opener but he is back for Ezra Mam on the extended bench. Kulikefu Finefuiaki replaces the injured Patrick Carrigan. Queensland have much more stability and seem to have a better-balanced and stronger bench, always a key factor in Origin matches.
The key to this one is the bounceback we normally see in the second game of the series. The loser of the opener has won five of the last six non-covid Game 2s. The rub of the green is going Queensland’s way.
The key here though is the Blues lack of scoring under Daley. They have averaged just 13.79 points per game in his 19 matches in charge, topping 18 just four games including the opener where they scored 16 of their 22 against a 12-man Maroons. Queensland have scored 18-plus in five of their last seven.
The bookies just never learn. Betting in this game is wrong. Again. The Maroons should be favoured so getting any kind of start is an excellent bet with the Maroons attack able to open up while the Blues will once again be hampered by poor, uninspired coaching.
Recommended Bets
Best: Queensland +2.5 ($1.85)
Next: NSW Team Total Under 22.5 ($1.87)
Value: Queensland 31-40 Points ($6.60)
Match Props
NSW have struggled to score early in Origins of late and have struggled to score points full stop under Laurie Daley so playing against a fast Blues start with a number of angles here is the play. The Blues have topped 18 in a paltry four of 19 games with Laurie Daley at the helm. In the last 10 Origins, the Blues have been held to six or fewer an incredible seven times. In Daley’s 19 games in charge, the Blues have been held to six or fewer first half points 12 times. The $2.65 on offer is one of the best value plays on the board for Origin II. It also brings the draw into play for the first half so playing it into a Queensland win provides an exceptional price.
Recommended Bets
Best: NSW 1st Half Points Under 11.5 ($1.90)
Next: NSW 1st Half Points 6 or Under ($2.65)
Value: Draw/Queensland HT/FT ($19.00)
Try Bets
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has been truly elite as a tryscoring proposition at State of Origin level with 12 tries in 11 matches. Queensland have won six games with the Hammer playing and he has scored nine tries in five of those. He scored in his only game at the MCG.
Briton Nikora made his Origin debut in Game 1 and has been promoted to the starting lineup for this one. He is a very good tryscoring edge forward at club level with 52 tries in 169 games and is in good form, crossing last week against the Dragons.
Selwyn Cobbo has six tries in four games and eight for the season since shifting to the Dolphins. He has two tries in his seven Origin appearances.
Brian To’o is tied for the lead as the all-time NSW top tryscorer. He scored five times in three Origins last year. He gets a great opportunity to break the record at the fast track MCG.
Recommended Bets
Best: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($2.15)
Next: Briton Nikora ($4.10)
Value: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try/Selwyn Cobbo Try/Brian To’o Try ($8.38)
Man of the Match Preview
Sam Walker was the best player on the field in Origin I and only failed to get the award because New South Wales took advantage of their extra-man advantage and came back to win but that should not take away from Walker’s extraordinary debut where he set Queensland up sublimely and was not overawed by the moment. Spine players have won 16 of the last 20 Man of the Match gongs and a Queensland half has won in four of the last six series.
Mitchell Moses has just six Origins under his belt but already has a Man of the Match gong in his keeping. He has proven more adept at Origin level than halves partner Nathan Cleary, winning his last four matches. Spine members have won 16 of the last 20 Man of the Match awards. He is great value and the best-priced NSW option, particularly with the long history of players not winning back-to-back awards.
Reuben Cotter has a prior Man of the Match award and shifts back to the middle with a move to lock. That should see his numbers shoot north, particularly his tackling. He will need a low-scoring game but looks the pick of the roughies.
Recommended Bets
Best: Sam Walker ($12)
Next: Mitchell Moses ($17)
Value: Reuben Cotter ($34)