NRL Tips & Preview | Round 10

Round 10 opens up with a match that will likely have major implications on the finals makeup with the Dolphins hosting the Bulldogs. The Dolphins get some key inclusions on their extended bench with Jeremy Marshall-King named to play his first game of 2026 while Kodi Nikorima returns from suspension. Stunningly Cameron Ciraldo has not dropped anyone despite the Bulldogs dropping three straight and conceding 28-plus in four of their last five. The Dolphins smoked the Bulldogs 44-8 when the teams last met but the 6.5-point line does seem big with the Dolphins 12-16 against the spread when favoured. With both teams needing a win, expect a defensive battle. Both teams are struggling to score with the Dolphins ranking 11th and the Bulldogs 16th. Both have top eight defences. With the under 9-5 when the Dolphins are off a win of 18or more and all three games going 52 or fewer, the under looks the best play. Kulikefu Finefuiaki has just seven tries in 41 starts in the NRL but is a hard edge runner who scored last week and can take advantage of Canterbury’s vulnerable left edge. Jack Bostock scored a double in his return from an ACL injury and now has 27 tries in 41 games. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 58 tries in 65 games since joining the Dolphins.

Tips

Best: Under 50.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canterbury Under 22.5 ($1.77)
Tryscorer: Kulikefu Finefuiaki ($19 First, $3.20 Anytime)
SGM: Kulikefu Finefuiaki Try/Jack Bostock Try/Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Try ($9.92)

Given how well the Roosters are breaking open opposition defences, the Chooks look an outstanding bet to win and win big against a Titans team that has really only performed against the bottom-ranked teams. The Roosters have won 11 of the last 12 against the Titans, covering three of the last four. The Chooks have scored 33-plus in their last five while conceding 24 or fewer in their last five. The Titans have topped 22 just once this season. The Roosters have covered four of five at Gosford and 24 of 37 against teams outside the Top 8. Gold Coast have covered just 10 of 24 against Top 4 teams. This one shapes as getting incredibly ugly for Josh Hannay’s team.Sam Walker is in elite tryscoring form with five tries in his last four games. Daniel Tupou is up to third on the all-time tryscoring list and continues his form with seven tries in his last seven games. Hugo Savala has three tries in five games since shifting to centre.

Tips

Best: Sydney Roosters -18.5 ($1.96)
Next: Sydney Roosters 30+ ($3.10)
Tryscorer: Sam Walker ($16 First, $2.55 Anytime)
SGM: Sam Walker Try/Daniel Tupou Try/Hugo Savala Try ($7.36)

The NRL in 2026 has seen scoring skyrocket and this game has all the hallmarks of a touch football affair with the white-hot Cowboys attack coming up against the porous Parramatta defence. The Cowboys have scored 28-plus in six of their last seven while conceding 31-plus in three of their last four. The Eels have conceded 20-plus in all nine games this year and at least 32 in six of nine. The over hits at 62% when the Cowboys are off a win. It is 24-16 when they play at home, 32-16 when they play at night and 23-14 when they play against teams outside the Top 8. The over is 26-17 when the Eels play against Top 8 teams, 11-5 when they are off scoring 36 or more and 17-7 when they are an underdog of at least a try away from CommBank. This game is going to run up a heap of points. Jake Clifford has been in outstanding tryscoring form this year with four in his last seven games. Scott Drinkwater has six tries in his last seven games and is in career best form. Braidon Burns is an elite finisher with five tries in his last five games.

Tips

Best: Over 55.5 ($1.90)
Next: North Qld 41 Points or More ($3.25)
Tryscorer: Jake Clifford ($21 First, $3.10 Anytime)
SGM: Jake Clifford Try/Scott Drinkwater Try/Braidon Burns Try ($7.79)

The Dragons have been nothing short of embarrassing this year as their limited roster has limped through nine rounds winless. Shane Flanagan was sacked and replaced by Dean Young but it meant little on Anzac Day when the Roosters ran in 62 points. That humiliation though combined with the bye gives the Dragons a great chance to pull off their first win of the year. Teams off conceding 60-plus are 22-6 against the spread since 2008. Home teams off conceding 50 or more with a rest of 10-plus days are 15-4 against the spread. The Dragons just have to dig in this week and getting eight points at home is too much. Newcastle have also covered just four of 13 off conceding 38-plus. The Dragons getting 8.5 points is one of the better bets of the week. Dylan Egan has three tries in eight NRL games and returns to the big league after a long injury stint. Trey Mooney scored first and last for the Knights last week and now has five tries in eight games.

Tips

Best: St George Illawarra +8.5 ($1.90)
Next: St George Illawarra Win ($3.10)
Tryscorer: Dylan Egan ($23 First, $3.75 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Egan Try/Trey Mooney Try ($17.50)

South Sydney have the top attack in the NRL and against a Cronulla defence that ranks 12th should have few problems breaking them down. This does shape as an under affair though with both teams in big under spots. The under is 17-11 since 2008 when these teams meet, hitting in four of their last five. The under is 36-19 when Souths play in NSW and 27-17 when playing a Top 8 opponent. The under is 33-20 when Cronulla are on the road. 13-8 when the Sharks are off a win of 20-plus and 11-5 when Cronulla are off conceding 10 or fewer. This game is a key one for both teams and one would expect Souths to dig in defensively after scoring 38 last week and losing. The total here is too high. Latrell Mitchell has 11 tries in eight games this season with three multi-try games. Tallis Duncan is in elite form with five tries in five games.

Tips

Best: Under 53.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 45.5 ($2.90)
Tryscorer: Latrell Mitchell ($10 First, $1.80 Anytime)
SGM: Latrell Mitchell 2+ Tries/Tallis Duncan Try ($14.98)

Brisbane have been completely ravaged by injury but look a very good bet as an outsider against Manly. Adam Reynolds, Kotoni Staggs and Deine Mariner are the latest to join the long injury list but the good news for Brisbane is that Ben Hunt has been named on the extended bench and looks a hope of playing. The Broncos have won three of the last four against the Sea Eagles and have covered 17 of 26 games as an outsider. The Broncos cover at 60% interstate while they have covered 13 of 19 night games. With Manly 17-24 against the spread when favoured and Reece Walsh returning in such good form, the Broncos look a nice bet in this one. Xavier Willison has five tries in 19 games as a starter and is a huge threat to score when playing on an edge. Jordan Riki has three tries this season and runs at the weakness in Manly’s defensive line.

Tips

Best: Brisbane +2.5 ($1.90)
Next: Brisbane Win ($2.20)
Tryscorer: Xavier Willison ($26 First, $4.25 Anytime)
SGM: Xavier Willison Try/Jordan Riki Try ($20.86)

There is every chance that things could click for Melbourne this week and they could run away with a 40-point win against a Tigers team missing Api Koroisau, Jahream Bula, Adam Doueihi and Samuela Fainu but it is hard to find value in a team who has lost seven straight laying nearly a converted try. The Storm have covered just one of 10 against Top 8 teams, just two of 10 off conceding 26-plus and just six of 17 off scoring 14 or fewer. The Tigers have won just one of eight with no Koroisau but teams off conceding 50 or more cover at 64%. This Tigers team does seem legit and the Storm have it all to prove. The Storm concede 53% of tries on their left side and Kai Pearce-Paul is one of the most dangerous edge runners. Taylan May has scored in three straight games.

Tips

Best: Wests Tigers +5.5 ($1.96)
Next: Wests Tigers Win ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Kai Pearce-Paul ($21 First, $3.15 Anytime)
SGM: Kai Pearce-Paul Try/Taylan May Try ($6.40)

The final game of the week sees the Raiders go in big home underdogs against the Panthers with the line looking a little too large with Hudson Young returning. No edge forward has the impact on their team that Young has with the Raiders. Double digit home underdogs cover at 57% while the Raiders have covered three straight as a home underdog of at least a try. The Raiders are 26-17 against the spread as an underdog and won the last two against Penrith. The Panthers are 3-4 against the spread when an interstate favourite of 10-plus while the Panthers cover rate drops from 58% to 44% when Mitch Kenny is out. Simi Sasagi has been Canberra’s best player this year and now has four tries in eight games. Blaize Talagi has scored in two of his last three.

Tips

Best: Canberra +10.5 ($1.85)
Next: Penrith 1-12 ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Simi Sasagi ($19 First, $3.20 Anytime)
SGM: Simi Sasagi Try/Blaize Talagi Try ($10.00)