World racing’s focus will be locked on Flemington this Tuesday, November 5th for 2024 Melbourne Cup Day.
Ten races, brimming with local and international talent will be headlined by the time-honoured Melbourne Cup 2024, and it looms as one of the most open editions of the race since the turn of the century.
Can Willie Mullins finally break through and win a race he’s been desperate to claim for many years? Will the Melbourne Cup stay onshore? Will a roughie emulate the 2015 heroics of Prinze Of Penzance?
Read on for our full Flemington tip sheet!
Price Tag has only made one appearance at the races so far and after being held up at a crucial stage in running, he hit the line well to fill the minors. He’s very well bred for a race like this one and with natural improvement, he can begin his rise through the grades.
Lavalier has been firm in the market in some good races this time in and has finished on the placegetters’ heels at each of his last three. He’s hard fit, this is one of the weaker races that he has contested, and the booking of Jamie Kah adds further confidence.
Stormfront has only made three appearances at the races since debuting, but he stamped himself as one to watch by winning his first two starts impressively, while he was last seen finishing a credible third behind the talented Capper Thirtynine in a BM70 at Cranbourne. Barrier 13 is the knock but a senior rider in Ben Melham helps, and with even luck, he certainly looks up to something of this quality.
Blue Stratum has been racing in competitive form this time and is one that looks a touch of overs in my opinion at big odds. His first two runs back were crisp and we were with him on both occasions, while he’s continued to acquit himself in some tougher races in the wake. He’s hard fit, he’s raced well down the straight here at HQ previously and in something like this, he’s worthy of a small each way ticket for mine.
Newfoundland filled the minors in BM72 company at Canterbury when resuming back in September and has since recorded consecutive metro victories, also in 72 company. This is a tougher race, but he has the runs on the board and is certainly up to something of this quality.
Apulia has only missed placing a handful of times in thirteen previous trips to the races, winning twice and finding form around some handy opposition in some good races. His fresh effort suggested he’s return in top order and any improvement would find him hard to beat out to 1800m.
We saw Absurde run a bold race in the Melbourne Cup last year, finding a position handy to the speed and staying on really well to ultimately finish seventh. That was actually the opposite of what this horse usually does in settling back off the pace and calling on a sharp turn of foot when the whips start cracking. He’s turned in some typically fine performances in the UK and Ireland this year and with different tactics, I’m confident he can be crowned the 2024 Melbourne Cup winner.
Chewing Gum was a dominant winner on debut down at Geelong in September, and she has since placed behind a couple of good ones in races at Sandown and Caulfield. She steps out on Tuesday in peak order, Ethan Brown sticks from a good draw and she’s another whom we can have something on each way.
Tiz Invincible is yet to strike in three runs back from a break, but her fitness has clearly improved with each of them, and I thought her run for fifth in the Group 2 Kewney Stakes last time was sound. She’s hard fit now, Jamie Kah adds something in the saddle and looking back to her form and results of last spring, she’s certainly up to something of this quality at her best.
Warnie won two of four starts over in the UK during his debut prep, while he arrived in Australia with a fine performance and victory right here at HQ last month. With natural improvement, I really can’t find a reason why he won’t be in the finish again.
Best – Race 6 No. 8 Apulia
Next Best – Race 1 No. Price Tag
Value – Race 7 No. 9 Absurde