Yarrow Stadium, New Plymouth | Friday, 5:35pm
It’s all go in the 2024 NPC, as the defending champions kick off the season with a clash against Counties Manukau. The Bulls put together a gripping run in the finals, knocking off Tasman, Canterbury and Hawke’s Bay to win the 2023 NPC title and they will look to do the same this year. They have the luxury of bringing back a lot of that title-winning team and there is plenty of class in the starting XV on Friday night. Kini Naholo, Ricky Riccitelli, Kaylum Boshier and Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens are just some of the stars in the Bulls team, and that puts them in a good position heading into the season opener.
Counties Manukau caught a lot of people’s attention in 2023, finishing just one place back from a quarterfinals spot, and they will need to continue to prove people wrong if they are to start their season with a win. Hoskins Sotutu missing out on All Blacks selection gives the Steelers a massive boost for this campaign, and he will suit up in the No.8 jersey on Friday night. But there is a lot of youth and inexperience among this Counties team and that will see them get well and truly outclassed here. The Bulls covered five of their six games to end their 2023 season and Counties have covered just two of their last eight games on the road.
Best: Taranaki -12.5 ($1.87)
Value: Taranaki 11-20 ($3.60)
Eden Park, Auckland | Friday, 7:35pm
We are blessed with a game between two genuine title contenders in the second game on Friday night as Auckland host Wellington. There is a chance that Auckland and Wellington will be the two teams playing for the trophy in October and both sides will be looking to assert their dominance in this clash. Auckland bring another stacked team to the competition in 2024, headlined by Akira Ioane, and they are well-equipped in almost every position. Harry Plummer’s inclusion in the All Blacks squad hurts their first five-eighth stocks but they have class throughout and profile as one of the best defensive teams in the competition.
That will mean that Wellington will have to be sharp in their season opener if they are to pick up a win at the Garden of Eden. That said, head coach Alando Sokai has the luxury of perhaps the best squad in the competition, and a look over their 23 for this game is evidence of that. Peter Lakai, Julian Savea, Du’Plessis Kirifi and Xavier Numia are just some of the stars that the Wellingtonians have at their disposal, but they also have a bit of youth. That will result in some speed bumps in their tougher clashes, especially at the start of the season, and as narrow underdogs, Auckland can capitalise. Auckland are 13-4 in their last 17 home games and should start their season with a win.
Best: Auckland ($1.97)
Value: Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($2.60)
Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch | Saturday, 2:05pm
Canterbury start their season by hosting Northland on Saturday afternoon, and they will be expecting to win well in their first hit-out. As always, they will have to contend with a number of All Blacks absences this season, but that hasn’t stopped them from naming a strong 23 for this game. Former All Blacks Cullen Grace and Braydon Ennor are in the starting XV, as well as a handful of Crusaders, including Tom Christie, Dallas McLeod and Chay Fihaki, making for an impressive team, but Northland will prove to be no pushovers themselves.
The Taniwha have been one of those niggly teams that refuse to roll over in recent years, and they look to have matched that mould again with their 2024 squad. Local legend Matt Moulds suits up for another campaign, while a bunch of exciting young talents, including Allan Craig, Rob Rush, Rivez Reihana and Corey Evans fill out the starting XV. This may not be an overly experienced Northland team but they have a lot of untapped talent that is knocking on the door of Super Rugby starting teams and they will collectively be keen to show that they are ready for that step up. Canterbury failed to cover their last eight games of 2023 and look to again be overrated by the market for this clash.
Best: Northland +17.5 ($1.87)
Value: Canterbury 11-20 ($3.40)
Rugby Park, Invercargill | Saturday, 2:05pm
A classic NPC rivalry is reignited in Round 1 when Southland take on their Otago foes. An electric atmosphere is always produced when these two teams meet — especially in Invercargill — and that will be the case again on Saturday. The Stags picked up just the one win in 2023, beating Manawatū 37-12 in the final round, and that may well be the mark that they find themselves at at the end of this season, but that’s not to say that they will be completely outclassed in this matchup. The Stags boast some solid players at this level, including Mitchell Dunshea, Sean Withy, Jack Taylor, Isaac Te Tamaki and Matt Whaanga, and they will want to take it to their rivals in front of their home fans.
For Otago, they will be equally motivated to improve on what was a disappointing 2023. Failing to qualify for finals with a 3-7 record, the Razorbacks had a season to forget last year, and will be eyeing up serious improvement this time around. However, their squad leaves a few question marks once more, with a lot of inexperience and lack of genuine game-breakers. Christian Lio-Willie will be one to watch and will rack up a ton of carries, while the midfield pairing of Sam Gilbert and Josh Timu may be one of the more solid ones in the competition, but this Otago team is nothing special and they will struggle to run away from Southland in this clash. The Stags covered six of their last eight games in 2023 and have covered three of their last four against Otago.
Best: Southland +8.5 ($1.87)
Value: Otago 1-12 ($2.70)
FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton | Saturday, 4:35pm
Waikato were the surprise victors of the NPC in 2021 and will be wanting to pull off a repeat of that accomplishment in 2024. They certainly don’t have the flashiest of squads heading into the season but, as mentioned in the season preview, they are the dark horse to take out the title this year. A rock-solid tight five, a strong complement of inside backs and some electric outside backs make for a good Mooloos team, and we can see that in the 23 that Ross Fillipo has named for Saturday afternoon. The recruitment of Josh Moorby for this season cannot be understated, while the propping combo of Ollie Norris and George Dyer will give them a chance to win most scrum battles.
Bay of Plenty also enter the competition with an underrated roster. Their second row of Justin Sangster and Naitoa Ah Kuoi may be the hardest-working locking duo in the competition, while Emoni Narawa, Cole Forbes and Sevens gun Cody Vai form a very impressive back three. There will be games where the Steamers explode and put on a show, but they may not have the consistency or the structure to figure at the business end of the season. Against a rock-solid team that the Mooloos are, BOP will be one step behind. Waikato covered four straight to end 2023 and will continue that run on Saturday.
Best: Waikato -4.5 ($1.90)
Value: Waikato 1-12 ($2.80)
North Harbour Stadium, Auckland | Sunday, 2:05pm
North Harbour simply couldn’t piece everything together last year, stumbling their way to a 4-6 finish. Those four wins came in consecutive games, finding a midseason purple patch, but they couldn’t carry it through to the last two rounds, and they will be hoping to hit more consistency in 2024. With a relatively experience squad put together for this campaign, including veterans Sione Mafile’o, Bryn Hall, Lotu Inisi and Shaun Stevenson, they will be solid once more, but it’s hard to see them being near the top four.
One team that does have a decent chance of being in the top four is Hawke’s Bay. The Magpies miraculously found form midway through last season, winning their last three games of the regular season, including a Ranfurly Shield challenge, to make finals, before upsetting Bay of Plenty and Wellington in the quarters and semis, respectively to make it all the way to the final. Of course, Taranaki ended up coming out on top in that, but with a lot of the squad returning for the 2024 season, the continuity will only help this Magpies team. Brock James has had them working in the offseason and they will enter 2024 firing on all cylinders to claim a win. Hawke’s Bay covered their last six games of last season and will carry the momentum into the new campaign.
Best: Hawke’s Bay -4.5 ($1.87)
Value:Hawke’s Bay 1-12 ($2.80)
Rotorua International Stadium, Rotorua | Wednesday, 7:05pm
Bay of Plenty were the standout team of the opening weekend of games, recording an eye-opening 36-21 victory over Waikato. What’s more — the win came on the road in Hamilton, getting their season off to the dream start with a bonus-point win. Cody Vai was impressive in his season debut and formed an impressive wing pairing with the star that is Emoni Narawa. Up front, Nikora Broughton and Kurt Ekland set the tone defensively and the Steamers were tidy at set piece, making for an impressive start to the season for the BOP. And with another strong 23 named for Wednesday’s game, win #2 looks to be on the way.
Counties Manukau, on the other hand, couldn’t record a win to start their 2024 campaign. It was always going to be a tough ask going up against the defending champions in New Plymouth, and the Steelers by no means let themselves down in their showing, but they lacked the attacking punch and the polish to really worry the Bulls. Peniasi Malimali was relentless with ball in hand and James Thompson worked hard defensively, but ball retention was a real worry for Counties and they will need to get that right against a BOP team that has some ball thiefs in their ranks. Often trying to play their way out of trouble, Counties were their own worst enemy but taking on another team that plays with pace and will put pressure on the Steelers defence, another big loss is coming Counties’ way. The Steelers are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games and BOP are 6-3 ATS in their last nine at home.
Best: Bay of Plenty -10.5 ($1.90)
Value: Bay of Plenty 11-20 ($3.60)