The 2023 NPC season was one of the most memorable in recent years, seeing a tightly contested competition result in a thrilling few weeks of finals. Taranaki were the ones who came out on top, beating Hawke’s Bay 22-19 in a tense final, and the Bulls will be confident of repeating that feat.
Taranaki enter the 2024 season with a good chunk of their championship-winning squad returning. The big losses come in the form of Pita Gus Sowakula, Tom Florence and potentially Stephen Perofeta if he stays in All Blacks camp through to the end of year tour. However, their superstars, such as Kini Naholo, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens and even the veteran Jayson Potroz all return, alongside a slew of integral workhorses, like captain Kaylum Boshier, Josh Lord, Reuben O’Neill, Ricky Riccitelli and more, putting them in good shape to defend their title.
Hawke’s Bay come into 2024 holding the Ranfurly Shield and not only will they be wanting to defend that all season — they will also be looking to go one better and finish 2024 as NPC champions. Tyrone Thompson, Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, Brad Weber and Chase Tiatia are just some of the big names not to be returning to the Bay, which gives the Magpies an uphill battle to return to the big dance. That said, any team that possesses the likes of Jonah Lowe, Folau Fakatava, Devan Flanders and Isaia Walker-Leawere is going to be exciting to watch and dangerous on attack, meaning the Magpies cannot be written off.
Wellington were the dominant team in the regular season, not losing a game until the final round, where they fell to Hawke’s Bay 18-20, surrendering the Ranfurly Shield in the process. It was that same Magpies team who ended their season just two weeks later in the semifinals, sending the Lions out in disappointing fashion, but they have regrouped well to form another very strong squad. They have Super Rugby experience throughout, headlined by the likes of Peter Lakai, Xavier Numia, Du’Plessis Kirifi, TJ Perenara, Ruben Love — depending on All Blacks availability — and many more, and will take some stopping and are the frontrunners to win in 2024.
Also defeated in the semifinals in 2023 were Canterbury, who fell to the eventual champions 16-23. Oli Jager, Reed Prinsep, Solomon Alaimalo and Fergus Burke are the main players who have departed the red and blacks, and the latter may well be the most obvious, with no specialist first five-eighth on the Cantabrians’ current squad. But with perhaps the best forward pack in the competition, boasting Tom Christie, Cullen Grace, Sam Darry (if not required by the ABs later in the year) and Joe Moody, just to name a few, Canterbury will be in the fight most weeks.
Their Tasman rivals further north also bring a good squad to the table. They will want to improve on last year’s 6-4 record and quarterfinal exit, and a team that can roll out players like Ethan Blackadder, Timoci Tavatavanawai and Levi Aumua every week will have a chance of doing so, but the elite depth that we are so used to seeing from the Mako isn’t there in 2024.
Auckland are another team who can usually rely on their depth, and that is the case again this season. The recent call-up of Harry Plummer to the All Blacks doesn’t help their chances, but they have Super Rugby experience in most positions and their loosies trio of Adrian Choat, Anton Segner and Akira Ioane is up there with the best. It’ll come down to whether they can find enough punch in their backline.
Just south of Auckland over the Bombays are Waikato, who scraped into the quarterfinals last season. They gave Wellington a real scare in the quarters and ultimately fell short, but they have retooled well in the offseason. With one of the deepest stocks of props in the competition, workhorse second row and back row players, and a good mix of experience and exuberance in their backs, the Mooloos may be one of the big improvers in 2024. Having recruited Josh Moorby up to the ‘Tron, while retaining serious quality in every position, this Waikato team is the dark horse of the competition.
Bay of Plenty are the only 2023 quarterfinalists not to be mentioned yet, but that’s not to say that they’re going to be behind the pace this year. The departures of Wharenui Hawera and Melani Nanai hurt the Steamers, but this is a solid team that will be in the finals hunt once more.
The same goes for Otago and North Harbour. Both have the quality to be in the top eight at season’s end if things break right for them, but they also have some obvious weaknesses. The Razorbacks are solid throughout, retaining a lot of experience from years gone by, but are without elite, x-factor players. Harbour do have some of those types, namely Shaun Stevenson, and have lured Waratahs first five-eighth across the ditch for this season but lack the quality up front to join the big fish.
Counties Manukau impressed in 2023. They fell just five points short of making the quarterfinals but it will take a grand effort to repeat that this season. Hoskins Sotutu’s presence will be huge for them but they are lacking further top-end talent. The same can be said about Northland. Always a gritty team, the Taniwha will record an upset or two in Whangārei, and Dan Hawkins’ trusty boot will keep them in some games, but they are a couple of steps down from the finals contenders.
Manawatū recorded just two wins last year and will be intent on improving that in 2024, but they look out of their depth. Brayden Iose will make sure they are a decent ball-running team, while Jordi Viljoen and Brett Cameron will look to build on some good flashes with the Hurricanes. Similarly, Fijian Drua first five-eighth Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula will be suiting up for the Turbos, but they are too thin on depth to trouble the best of the best.
Unfortunately for Southland, they look on track for another wooden spoon. They’re not without some quality players, with the likes of Mitch Dunshea, Sean Withy, Isaac Te Tamaki all suiting up for the Stags, alongside a couple of international recruits (former Bristol wing Charlie Powell and former Rebels first five-eighth Jake Strachan), but they’re well behind the leading pack once more.
Best: Wellington ($3.50) | Value: Waikato ($10)