Super Rugby Pacific Preview & Tips | Round 11

Sky Stadium, Wellington | 7:05pm, Friday
The Hurricanes’ fairytale run ended against the Brumbies last week, as their Canberra curse came back to haunt them in a 19-27 defeat. In their first defeat of the season, the Canes lacked their usual composure on defence but perhaps the biggest shift was their lack of bite on attack. Only on one other occasion this season had Clark Laidlaw’s team been held to less than 20 points (Round 4 at Crusaders) and their inability to get to the right parts of the field and break the Brumbies’ line was concerning. However, there are reasons for the Canes to be optimistic – they outscored the Brumbies 16-3 across the final 50 minutes of play – but their sluggish start saw them dig too big a hole to recover from. Now with just a one-point lead atop the Super Rugby ladder, the Wellingtonians will need to finish the season strong to hold their position and they will be confident of adding another win to their tally on Friday.

The Waratahs’ disappointing season continued into Round 10, putting themselves in a promising position against the Chiefs before losing 22-38. A Tane Edmed penalty goal in the 53rd minute had the Tahs just two points back of the visitors, at 15-17, but it was largely one-way traffic from there, as NSW were outscored 7-19 for the remainder of the match to suffer their seventh defeat of the season. Their forwards were again completely outmatched and they made life very tough for themselves with a slew of errors at the set piece. Mark Nawaqanitawase looked dangerous in his return and their loosies were typically physical but they were outmatched across the paddock and the same promises to be true on Friday when they take on the competition leaders.

However, with a number of key Hurricanes being benched or rested, including TJ Perenara, Kini Naholo and Xavier Numia, this game won’t be a complete blowout. For as bad as NSW’s record is this season, they only have one 20+ point loss to their name and are 18-13 ATS in their last 31 games as underdogs. The Hurricanes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the Waratahs.
Best: Waratahs +20.5 ($1.88) | Value: Hurricanes 11-20 ($3.80)

AAMI Park, Melbourne | 9:35pm, Friday
The Rebels had their three-game win streak broken in devastating fashion last week, getting blown out by the Crusaders 0-39 in Christchurch. Entering the game as 13.5-point underdogs, it was going to require quite the upset to see Melbourne win on Friday night, but they didn’t even come close, being shut out in what was a very flat performance from a team that was riding a high. Perhaps it was the fact that they were coming off a bye week, but the Rebels were as sluggish as can be, as Carter Gordon failed to have his usual impact on attack and had his kicking game shut down, seeing the Crusaders enjoy a whopping 72% territory. The return of Rob Leota was a welcome sight, but after the highs of their three wins prior, including a 16-point victory over the Highlanders in their game before their bye, this was a very disappointing showing from Kevin Foote’s side.

The Blues took part in one of the more memorable Super Rugby games in recent times, recording a dramatic 41-34 victory over the Reds last week. It was the Blues’ sixth win on the trot, but it looked like they were heading for defeat with just five minutes remaining, as they trailed 27-34. However, Kurt Ekland found his way over the chalk to tie the game with three minutes remaining, before some Caleb Clarke magic set up Sam Nock to stroll in untouched after the hooter to give the Blues a famous 41-34 victory and put them just one point back of the top of the ladder. It was quite the difference from their four prior outings, which they won by an average of 36 points, but there’s every chance that they return to that level of domination on Friday night. Vern Cotter has named another strong team and that spells trouble for the Rebels, who have not been good against the best of the competition.

The Rebels’ four losses this season – against the Brumbies, Reds, Hurricanes and Crusaders – have come by an average of over 29 points and they simply don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Blues. The Aucklanders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Best: Blues -14.5 ($1.88) | Value: Blues 21-30 ($4.50)

Teufaiva Stadium, Nukuʻalofa | 2:05pm, Saturday
History awaits on Saturday with the first ever Super Rugby match being played in Tonga, as Moana Pasifika host the Highlanders. It’s been a big few weeks for Moana, upsetting the Reds in a rare game in Whangarei, before their bye week and then a trip to Lautoka to take on the Fijian Drua. Finding themselves down 0-17 at halftime, Moana struck first in the second 40 to breathe life into the game, but Taniela Rakuro’s try with 10 minutes to play put the game out of Moana’s reach, despite a late comeback from the visitors which saw them score two tries in the final 10 minutes. Losing 17-24 in a spirited effort, the defeat saw them drop to 3-6 and out of the top eight, leaving an uphill battle for Moana to make finals in 2024 but this week’s clash with the Highlanders gives them a chance to reenter the top eight.

The Highlanders snapped their five-game losing streak with a 7-6 win over the Force last week to leapfrog Moana for eighth place in the standings. Despite the win, it was an ugly, ugly game, with both teams making a slew of errors across the park, trying the Stormers’ 13-0 victory over the Bulls in 2020 for the lowest score in a Super game since the Highlanders’ 6-0 victory over the Crusaders in 2009. Folau Fakatava’s 47th-minute try, which was converted by Cam Millar, proved to be the difference and earned the Landers a rare win in what has been a disappointing 2024, but despite winning the game, there were few positives for Clarke Dermody’s team. Matching the sloppiness of the Force, the hosts conceded 20 turnovers in the game and were outworked at scrum time, only winning half of their own feeds. The usual threats, Timoci Tavatavanawai and Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, were strong when given the chance, but the disorganisation of the rest of the team gave them few opportunities and I expect a similar result on Saturday in what will be a hot and humid Teufaiva Stadium.

Both of these teams haven’t fully clicked on attack this season and aren’t known for their organised play, which could see another ugly game of rugby on Saturday afternoon. The injury to Rhys Patchell hurts the Landers and I have Moana winning this game narrowly in a tight arm wrestle that will be low-scoring. The under is 12-6 in the Highlanders’ last 18 games and 12-7 in Moana’s last 19 games.
Best: Total Points – Under 57.5 ($1.87) | Value: Moana Pasifika 1-12 ($3.25)

Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch | 4:35pm, Saturday
The Crusaders were utterly dominant in their 39-0 victory over the Rebels last week, shutting out the visitors to pick up their second win of the season. In undoubtedly their best performance of the season, the Cantabrians dominated from start to finish, scoring in the opening 10 minutes and not looking back as they recorded a potentially season-changing victory. Now just three points back of a place in the top eight, the there’s every chance that the Crusaders will be playing finals footy in 2024, despite going into last week at the bottom of the ladder, and there are a number of things to build on from last week’s win. Christian Lio-Willie was outstanding in open play, helping form what was a dominant loose forward trio, as he teamed up with Cullen Grace and Ethan Blackadder to form a monstrous back row. Johnny McNicholl continues to play with much-needed poise and he’ll be joined by another veteran of the game this week when Leigh Halfpenny makes his Crusaders debut.

The Reds will be eager to right their wrongs from last week after letting a 34-27 lead with five minutes to play result in a 34-41 defeat against the Blues. Queensland were poised for another big scalp in that game, which would have had them on the brink of the top four, but instead they now find themselves in sixth place with a 4-5 record. Tim Ryan was a revelation in his run-on debut, with the young winger scoring an electric hattrick which, unsurprisingly, sees him keep his place in the starting XV this week, and he will be one of many threats that the Crusaders will need to keep an eye on. The Reds are littered with strong ball runners, including Harry Wilson and Peni Ravai, and the physical brand of rugby that both teams play will make this game a real tussle.

I expect this game to be hard-fought and very, very physical. Rob Penney is leaning into that style of play, which has been aided by the return of Scott Barrett and the reshuffle of his loose forwards, and Les Kiss lets his forwards play. I expect plenty of contact and not a lot of points in this game, with both teams showing a tendency to keep scores low. The under has hit in three of the Reds’ last four games and five of the Crusaders’ last seven.
Best: Total Points – Under 54.5 ($1.87) | Value: Alternate Total Points – Under 44.5 ($3.30)

FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton | 7:05pm, Saturday
The Chiefs kept their spot in the top four with a 38-22 victory over the Waratahs last week. It wasn’t all that pretty, especially in the first half, which saw the visitors pick up two yellow cards, but they did well to fight back from 0-12 down to record what ended up being a straightforward victory. Shaun Stevenson’s hamstring injury that he picked up in the process of scoring a try is cause for concern for the men from Waikato, but there were plenty of positives to come out of the game, including Cortez Ratima continuing his try-scoring streak, Damian McKenzie again looking assured at first five and Samipeni Finau continuing to embrace the enforcer role with some more massive shots on defence. This Chiefs pack may not feature the big names that it has in the past but it is starting to build a reputation as a tough bunch and the Force will be very aware of that heading into Saturday’s game.

The Force took part in one of the ugliest games in recent Super Rugby history last week, as mentioned in the Moana Pasifika v Highlanders preview, contributing to one of the lowest-scoring games in Super Rugby history in their 6-7 defeat to the Landers. Playing under the roof, conditions were no excuse for the Force as they failed to string together continuous phases and put any real pressure on the Highlanders. Fortunately for WA, the Highlanders were equally as bad, helping the Force take a losing bonus point out of this game, but the loss resigned them to the bottom of the ladder and it’s hard to see them improving on that position on Saturday.

That said this Force team is not terrible, and the return of some experienced players in recent weeks, including Kurtley Beale, Izack Rodda and Tom Franklin, has helped compose them somewhat and they will be invaluable against the Chiefs to help keep the margin under 24 points. The Chiefs have covered just three of their nine games this season and the Force are 16-11 ATS in their last 27 games as double-digit underdogs.|
Best: Force +24.5 ($1.88) | Value: Chiefs 11-20 ($4.00)

GIO Stadium, Canberra | 9:35pm, Saturday
The Brumbies picked up their biggest win of the season last week, toppling the previously-unbeaten Hurricanes 27-19 in Canberra. It was a massive win for ACT, who kept themselves in the hunt for a top two finish, and it was all on the back of a massive defensive effort. Going into the game off a 7-46 flogging against the Blues the week prior, there were justified question marks around the Brumbies’ defence, but they quickly dispelled those concerns with an organised defensive showing against one of the competition’s best attacks. ACT’s hot start saw them run out to a 24-5 lead inside the first 30 minutes and they did enough to hold on to win the game, and Darcy Swain was a workhorse on the defensive side of the ball, as was Tom Hooper when he came in off the bench, earning himself a start this week, but it was very much a team effort to shut down the Hurricanes and they will need to be sound on that end of the field again on Saturday.

The Fijian Drua come into this game off a 24-17 victory over Moana Pasifika, ending their two-game skid and keeping them inside the top eight. Now with a 4-5 record, the Drua have put themselves in a good position to make finals again, and they, like the Brumbies, have been able to achieve this relative success thanks to their defence. Holding Moana to just 17 points, it’s no coincidence that three of their four wins this season have come when holding teams to below 20 points, but they have a big task ahead of them if they are to achieve that feat in Canberra. Mick Byrne has made five changes to his team from last week, but the Drua are out of their depth in one of the hardest venues to win at in all of Super Rugby.

Stephen Larkham is not taking the Drua lightly, naming a full-strength 23 to end Round 11 and we’ll see a big victory for the hosts. The Drua have won just one of their 19 road games in their history and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight away from home. The Brumbies have covered five of their last six games overall and five of their last six at home.
Best: Brumbies -15.5 ($1.85) | Value: Brumbies 21-30 ($4.20)