McLean Park, Napier | Friday, 7:05pm
Round 3 kicks off with a Ranfurly Shield defence, as Hawke’s Bay put it on the line for the second week running. The Magpies kept the Shield in Napier for another week with a 31-17 victory over Southland, in what was a tense game that saw the Stags remain in the hunt for the majority of the match. However, a hot finish from the Magpies ensured they would hold onto the Log o’ Wood as some of their big names stood up. Folau Fakatava had a much improved performance, while Nick Grigg and Matt Protheroe were regular threats on attack, giving the hosts the boost that they needed to get past the gritty Southerners. The defensive grind of Frank Lochore and Cooper Flanders also stood out, but Hawke’s Bay will need to lift their game in future Shield defences if they are to hold on for much longer.
Northland will enter this important clash with momentum behind them after recording a 35-18 victory over Manawatū last week. It wasn’t the smoothest of performances from the Taniwha, only running away from the Turbos in the final 20 minutes of the game, outscoring the visitors 18-5 in the final quarter to get their first win of the season. A penalty try to the Taniwha after an unstoppable rolling maul gave them a 30-13 lead with five minutes remaining, sealing the win for the Northerners, and it was the boot of Rivez Reihana that did a lot of the damage. Whether off the tee or in open play, the young first five-eighth had the ball on a string off the boot and had a couple of impactful carries. Simon Parker also ran well from the back of the scrum to give Northland good go-forward, while the defensive efforts of Saimoni Uluinakauvadra and Sam Caird proved to be crucial for the success of the hosts. They will need those two and many more to be on top of their game defensively on Friday night, but Hawke’s Bay will eventually run away with this one. The Magpies have covered seven of their last eight games and will mount another successful Shield defence.
Tips:
Best: Hawke’s Bay -13.5 ($1.82)
Value: Hawke’s Bay 11-20 ($3.50)
Navigation Homes Stadium, Pukekohe | Saturday, 2:05pm
Counties Manukau have fought hard to start their season but find themselves 0-3 after two rounds. It’s been an incredibly difficult schedule for the Steelers, with a storm week in Round 1, taking on the defending champions and then Bay of Plenty, before hosting Waikato in their third game. Counties came so close to victory on Sunday, suffering a 20-26 defeat against the Mooloos. Hot on attack in the final minute of play, the Steelers couldn’t win their own lineout, denying them the chance to score a potential game-winning try. Still, plenty of positives can be taken from that showing for Counties, namely the performance of Alamanda Motuga. The openside had another great showing, running with intent for the full 80 minutes while racking up an impressive 15 tackles, while lock James Thompson worked all night, leading the team in tackles and carries. Their scrum was shaky at times and their lineout hurt them in the end, but the ticker of the team around the park will ensure that they are no easy-beats this season.
Unfortunately for Counties, however, their difficult fixture to start the season resumes into Round 3 as they host Tasman. The Mako are 2-0 after picking up a 22-7 win over Canterbury last week and will fancy themselves to make it three straight to start 2024 on Saturday. It was a defensive masterclass from the hosts in testing conditions, stonewalling Canterbury time and time again when they were on attack, leading to an important win in Nelson. William Havili was reliable off the tee and had his backs performing well in open play, while Fletcher Anderson and Timoci Tavatavanawai had impactful games carrying the ball. It wasn’t all that pretty at set piece for the hosts, giving up the ball on several occasions when they should have been setting up scoring opportunities, but a win is a win and they should make it three-from-three on Saturday. However, as we have seen from Counties this season, they are hard to overcome and fight right until the 80th minute. This will see them cover the 15.5-point line — they have covered five of their last six at home, while the Mako have covered just five of their last 17 on the road.
Tips:
Best: Counties Manukau +15.5 ($1.87)
Value: Tasman 1-12 ($3.00)
Eden Park, Auckland | Saturday, 4:35pm
Auckland find themselves in a 0-2 hole after two rounds, following last week’s 25-27 defeat in Dunedin. Despite a late push from the visitors, including a try from Tanielu Tele’a with five minutes remaining to bring Auckland within two points, it wasn’t enough to get past a resilient Otago team. The men from the City of Sails definitely had enough chances to win the game, but they were inefficient when getting into Otago’s half and, on the other side of the ball, couldn’t slow down the hosts when they found themselves in scoring positions. It was another busy evening from Akira Ioane with ball in hand, while Josh Beehre stamped his mark on the game. However, the cohesion of the team, in the forwards and in the backs, will need to be improved going into Saturday night’s game.
Canterbury had similar struggles in their 7-22 defeat against Tasman in Round 2. Not a lot went the way of the visitors, failing to convert their chances and particularly struggling at lineout time. Their inefficiency on attack wasn’t so obvious in their opening game against Northland, but the red and blacks had no answer for the defence of the Mako. Ngane Punivai not only was Canterbury’s only try scorer, but also showed the most promise on attack, while the second row pairing of Jamie Hannah and Zach Gallagher took a lot of the defensive brunt. While the visitors’ defence wasn’t the issue, there was is a lot of work for them to do on attack to get to the level that they need to be at to finish in the top four, and that lack of bite will see them struggle in Auckland. Canterbury have covered just three of their last 16 games on the road and that trend will continue on Saturday.
Tips:
Best: Auckland -2.5 ($1.90)
Value: Auckland 1-12 ($2.70)
Rugby Park, Invercargill | Saturday, 7:05pm
Southland couldn’t pull off a Ranfurly Shield miracle in Napier last week, going down 17-31 against Hawke’s Bay in the first Shield challenge of the NPC season. The Stags gave it an almighty crack, getting themselves within seven points of the Magpies following a 76th minute try to Isaac Te Tamaki, however, they couldn’t seal the deal, with Sam Wye putting the nail in the Southerners’ coffin with an immediate response, scoring in the corner. It was a cruel finish for Southland, but they must be happy with how their first two games have played out. They were organised and resilient in their opening win over Otago and showed similar traits last week in Napier, indicating that 2024 marks a new chapter for this province.
Taranaki had their seven-game win streak come to an end last week, losing to Wellington 19-26. It was torrential rain in Porirua, and that looked to be suiting the visitors, running out to a 19-5 lead just before halftime as they showed no hesitancy in throwing the ball around in the wet. However, losing the wind advantage and any semblance of momentum in the second half, the Bulls had nothing left in the tank in terms of scoring, failing to add to their 19-point first half tally to drop their first game of the season. Ball retention was a real issue for the visitors, committing 21 turnovers across the game, while their lineout hit a few speed bumps in trying conditions. However, on the plus side, Kini Naholo was damaging with the pill again, and Josh Jacomb didn’t let the rain slow him down, making it a hot start to the season for the young first five-eighth. The foundations are very much there for this Taranaki team, and they should be winning this game, but the 12.5 points that they are giving up is excessive. Southland cover 60% of their home games and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Tips:
Best: Southland +12.5 ($1.90)
Value: Taranaki 1-12 ($2.80)
Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin | Sunday, 2:05pm
Otago have been a mixed bag to start the season. They started their campaign with a dismal showing in Invercargill, losing to Southland 13-22, before rebounding well to beat Auckland 27-25 last week. It was hard to believe just how much better the Razorbacks looked one week removed from a disappointing defeat, but a hot start and an assured middle patch of the game gave them an important victory to kick start their season. The hosts were ruthless when they got deep into Auckland’s territory, making the most of their few opportunities, and the boot of Cameron Millar ensured the victory. Young fullback Finn Hurley impressed, while Sam Gilbert had another solid game in the midfield and the forwards worked well around the park.
That will present a few challenges for Bay Of Plenty heading into Sunday afternoon’s clash, but the Steamers won’t be too phased after their 3-0 start to the season. An impressive storm week to start the year saw BOP move to 2-0, first toppling Waikato in Hamilton before beating Counties Manukau in Rotorua to end Round 1. Their third game in just nine days took place on Sunday, when they hosted North Harbour, and they were made to work hard but managed to pull off a 24-20 victory. As the visitors led 12-20 with 30 minutes remaining, the Steamers needed to mount a comeback, and that they did, scoring a quickfire 12 points to take the lead and they never looked back, as they held off a Harbour team that was hot on attack for most of the last 10 minutes. It’s fair to say, however, that BOP deserved the win. They were more effective on attack and contended better at the breakdown, only letting themselves down with the odd defensive lapse. Those lapses, which haven’t been uncommon in any of their first three games, will need to be tidied up, however, they are clearly the better team in this showdown and that will see the Steamers prevail. BOP cover 62.5% of their road games and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 away from home.
Tips:
Best: Bay Of Plenty -2.5 ($1.85)
Value: Bay Of Plenty 1-12 ($2.90)
Porirua Park, Wellington | Sunday, 2:35pm
Wellington have done just enough to emerge from the opening two rounds with a 2-0 record. It’s been a difficult schedule to start the season for the title favourites, but they have passed the test, first picking up an impressive win in Auckland before recording a come-from-behind victory against Taranaki last week. Conditions couldn’t have been much worse at Porirua Park and it looked like the Bulls were going to be the ones who adapted best to the rain, as a try to Tom Franklin just before the break gave them a 5-19 lead. However, the Lions had the wind advantage in the second half and used it to great effect, as Julian Savea crashed over for a couple of tries, before a 20m rolling maul was finished off by Leni Apisai to put the game out of the Bulls’ reach. It wasn’t the prettiest game, courtesy of the conditions, but the Lions took the few chances that they got and that is the sign of a good team, and is cause for concern for Manawatū heading into Sunday’s clash.
The Turbos have not had a good start to the season, already finding themselves with a 0-2 record. Their 21-54 defeat against Tasman to kick off the season was far from pretty, giving up linebreak after linebreak, before last week’s 18-35 defeat against Northland showed just how far off the pace this Manawatū team is. The Turbos’ forwards were consistently outbattled at the breakdown and their ball was often slow when they were in possession, making for some frustrating passages of play. James Tofa and TK Howden were busy throughout, but the discipline and the defence of the visitors let them down repeatedly as the Taniwha eventually ran away with the game. That’s worrying form heading into a game against the best team in the competition and I fear for the fate of the visitors. Manawatū have failed to cover their last seven games and are just 1-3 ATS against the Lions in their last four encounters.
Tips:
Best: Wellington -30.5 ($1.90)
Value: Wellington 31-40 ($3.60)
North Harbour Stadium, Auckland | Sunday, 4:35pm
North Harbour have been on the receiving end of a tough fixture through the opening two rounds, seeing them sit with a 0-2 record in the early stages of the tournament. A first-up clash with Hawke’s Bay saw them lose 32-41 before going down against Bay Of Plenty last week, 20-24. The defeat against the Steamers would have been a tough pill to swallow, given they were leading by eight points at the 50-minute mark, only to concede two tries in the space of 10 minutes to concede the lead and, ultimately, the game. Harbour did give it a good crack in the last 10 minutes, but they weren’t able to find the winning score, making it two narrow losses on the trot. Wallace Sititi got very involved after returning from All Blacks duties, while Shaun Stevenson showed flashes of magic and Kade Banks was dangerous in moments.
Waikato did what they needed to against Counties last week, but it was far from pretty. The 26-20 victory got them their first win of the season, but they found themselves down 5-14 less than 10 minutes into the game and were made to build their way back from there, before holding off a last-gasp Counties attack to seal the win. That follows a shaky performance against the Bay Of Plenty in their first game of the season, which they lost 21-36, in what has been a concerning start to the year for the Mooloos. They may well come right in the coming weeks, but Harbour have been tidier and should do the job at home. The Mooloos are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine on the road and the task will prove to be too tough on the North Shore.
Tips:
Best: North Harbour ($1.87)
Value: North Harbour 1-12 ($3.00)
Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch | Wednesday, 7:05pm
Canterbury bounced back from a poor showing against Tasman to beat Auckland in the City of Sails on Saturday. It was their defence that earned them the win, consistently shutting down the hosts and outworking them at the breakdown to win a couple of pivotal moments. Tom Christie, who entered the game as an early substitute for Cullen Grace who failed an HIA, was excellent, as were Jamie Hannah and Billy Harmon, particularly defensively, as they made Auckland pay for their ill discipline and lack of attacking cohesion. It’s fair to say that the Red and Blacks weren’t all that organised in their own right when on attack, but five penalty goals from James White did the heavy lifting on the scoreboard to improve the Cantabrians’ record to 2-1 this season.
Hawke’s Bay guaranteed another couple of weeks with the Ranfurly Shield in their possession with their second successful defence of the NPC season on Friday night. Beating Northland 55-30, it was a topsy-turvy game from the Magpies, as has come to be a regularity for them, but they showed their class in the end, outscoring the Taniwha 22-7 in the final 30 minutes of play to seal the win. Some spectacular tries were scored by Hawke’s Bay, including a cross-kick double from wing Ben O’Donnell, that typified their style of play over the last few seasons and has made them such a difficult team to beat. They won’t score so many points against a solid Canterbury defence on Wednesday night, but they will still prove to be a handful for the hosts. With one extra day’s rest and a high-octane attack that has impressed already in 2024, a Hawke’s Bay win is not off the table. Hawke’s Bay have covered eight of their last nine games and Canterbury are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11.
Best: Hawke’s Bay +5.5 ($1.90)
Value: Hawke’s Bay 1-12 ($3.40)