Canterbury feature in yet another NPC final and, at home in their shiny, new stadium they enter the game as clear favourites. The result is far from a foregone conclusion though, after Northland came to town and won the Ranfurly Shield two months ago, which is going to make the hosts very wary going into the finale.
Canterbury went into the playoffs on top of the table and have been impressive across the quarters and semis. It started with a 62-26 beatdown of Waikato two weeks ago, recording their second-biggest win of the season in the process. Their semifinal win wasn’t quite as impressive, beating Taranaki 38-28, but in classic fashion Canterbury looked in control for much of the contest and kept their calm in the final 20 minutes to close out the game and book another final appearance. The defending champions had the better start, grinding away deep in Taranaki territory before the Bulls were yellow carded, seeing Corey Kellow open the scoring. Taranaki did respond, but an excellent set play sent Kurtis MacDonald in to score before Xavier Treacy made it 21-7 in the blink of an eye. Sam Darry continued Canterbury’s hot run in the first half, scoring a gimme to make it 26-7 at the half and it was a well-deserved lead for the hosts. Jone Rova’s try early in the second half made it a 26-point buffer but the visitors had a couple of quick tries in them to drop it two a two-score contest, but the hosts never faltered as Isaac Hutchinson darted his way over the line to make it an unassailable 38-21 lead. Dominic Gardener was consistently making inroads with his his carries and Treacy was a fellow standout in the loosies, but Sam Darry was the pick of the forwards with a busy night on both sides of the ball and was a very reliable lineout option. Louie Chapman was excellent in getting the backs firing and getting Canterbury in the right areas of the park and MacDonald was sure to take advantage on the wing, while Jone Rova and Johnny McNicholl also did their jobs.
Northland have had an excellent season, albeit after losing the Ranfurly Shield in what would have been their final defence of the season against Counties Manukau. Despite that, the Taniwha recorded a second-place finish to give them home ground advantage across the quarters and semis, and they took advantage, firstly with a gutsy 26-21 victory over Tasman. Then came a big challenge against Otago last week, which saw Northland rise to the occasion with an emphatic 38-19 win. There was barely anything between the teams at halftime, with a Marcel Renata try after the hooter giving the hosts a 17-14 buffer as the rain started to pour in Whangārei. Heremaia Murray then found his way over in the corner just before the 60-minute mark to make it a 10-point lead, before a trio of Rivez Reihana penalty goals and a breakaway try from Nathan Salmon put the icing on the cake. It was another mammoth effort from the hosts’ forwards, with their scrum winning some crucial moments and their strong carries giving them an advantage. Terrell Peita was a standout again, with a heap of carries in difficult conditions, as well as a few turnovers to keep Otago at bay. James Mullan was also a workhorse, with a good defensive and lineout performance, while the second row of Allan Craig and Josh Goodhue toiled away. Rivez Reihana’s boot was critical in the conditions.
It’s largely the same Canterbury 23 for the final, except All Blacks Chay Fihaki and Jamie Hannah come into the starting team and George Bell joins the bench. Northland’s XV is unchanged and James Ramm comes onto the bench, bumping Hudson Creighton out of the squad. That makes for a tightly matched final, especially for the opening 50-60 minutes while the starters battle it out. The depth and the experience of this Canterbury squad, however, will get them over the line in this final, which makes them deserved favourites. However, the Taniwha are underrated again in this clash and as 9.5-point underdogs, they’re my pick in the big dance. They won well at One NZ Stadium in Round 4 and that’s going to fill them with confidence in this clash, with their forwards in particular impressing in that Ranfurly Shield win, and there’s no reason why their starting pack can’t have more success on Monday. I expect this one to be tight after 80 minutes, with a Taniwha win not out of the equation.
Best
Northland +9.5 ($1.95)Value
Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($2.90)Try Scorer
Jone Rova ($17 First, $2.35 Anytime)Same Game Multi
Jone Rova Try / Dallas McLeod Try / Brady Rush Try ($11.23)