Our Geelong Cup Day tips cover a nine-race program led by the Group 3 Ladbrokes Geelong Cup.
Past winners Torranzino and Onesmoothoperator return, with the Melbourne Cup ballot exemption on offer helping attract one of the strongest fields in recent years. The Listed Geelong Classic is another feature to assess.
Geelong is rated a Good 4, and the rail is in the true position. The speed map and early positioning will be important, while the opening races should provide a useful guide to how the track is playing.
Our race analysis considers the key runners, main winning chances and betting opportunities across the card. Here is our assessment of all nine races.
NOTTOLOOK (3) is progressing well as a lightly raced five-year-old stayer.
He broke his maiden over 2218m at Donald four starts ago, then stepped up in distance at Seymour and carried 60kg to make it two wins in a row.
The six-week gap between runs proved costly two starts ago, but he bounced back last start with his best performance yet, powering home over 2500m at Murray Bridge to win comfortably.
Rock-hard fit now, he should get a good run with Mick Dee settling just off what looks a strong speed.
| 3. Nottolook (6) J: Michael Dee 60.5kg 61131 T: Patrick Payne |
SPIRIT OF WEALTH (12) is worth another chance after her last-start run at Mornington went wrong at the barriers.
She knuckled badly and never recovered, but had been excellent first-up on the Hillside track in a stronger race, finishing a neck third with a powerful late run.
The daughter of Capitalist also finished 1.17 lengths second last preparation to the subsequent multiple black-type winner Weeping Woman.
With the forward runners drawn to her outside, Carleen Hefel may get a useful cart across and find cover.
| 12. Spirit Of Wealth (6) J: Carleen Hefel 59kg 25×30 T: Ciaron Maher |
AURORA BELLE (7) is an unbeaten former New Zealand mare who made an impressive Australian debut.
She won back-to-back races at Te Rapa before joining the Hayes stable at Euroa.
Resuming over 1200m at Ballarat, she crossed easily from the outside barrier to lead and drew away to win by 2.25 lengths.
She should be fitter for that run, and the rise in distance suits.
Ethan Brown can use her natural speed to roll forward and take up the running.
| 7. Aurora Belle (6) J: Ethan Brown 59kg 11×1 T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes |
OLE ROYALE (3) returned in great fettle, winning over 1200m at Ballarat last start.
The Team Hawkes-trained gelding was fair away but mustered speed to make good use of the inside barrier and settle prominently.
He then worked strongly to the line, scoring by 1.25 lengths.
He should strip fitter second-up, and the rise to 1400m appeals after his win over the distance in a heat of the Up & Coming Stars Series last preparation.
Luke Currie, who has been aboard for both wins, retains the ride from a good draw.
| 3. Ole Royale (3) J: Luke Currie 60.5kg 661×1 T: M, W & J Hawkes |
ICY YOU (2) looks well placed after a strong run in the Listed Super Impose Stakes at Flemington on a heavy track.
The Busuttin & Young-trained gelding worked home nicely to finish 3.31 lengths fourth to Miss Waititi.
Vallice and Cignetti finished second and third, then repeated those placings in last Saturday’s Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes to frank the form.
He had also been gallant for a neck second over 1800m at Caulfield, while his 4.75-length maiden win could have been more after he was shut off a long way out.
The wide draw is tricky, but Craig Williams takes the ride and he is rock-hard fit.
| 2. Icy You (11) J: Craig Williams 57kg 2124 T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young |
STUNG (5) settled back and never got into the race when finishing 3.78 lengths from the winner at Cranbourne first-up.
The Team Hayes-trained mare should be better suited by the step up in distance and racing on a bigger track.
Last preparation, she found the line strongly to win second-up over a mile in the Listed Claire Lindop Stakes by 1.75 lengths.
Ethan Brown replaces the apprentice and has a good draw to work from.
| 5. Stung (1) J: Ethan Brown 60kg 108×0 T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes |
POINT OF LAW (8) is a lightly raced stayer with plenty of talent, making his first start for Ciaron Maher.
The son of Frankel won his maiden at Newbury three starts ago, then charged home from the back to finish 1.6 lengths fourth in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot.
He showed his quality again last start, proving too strong over 2615m to win the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes at Newmarket.
Maher used those races to identify current Group 1-winning stable stars Birdman and Royal Supremacy, who finished third in the Queen’s Vase and second in the Bahrain Trophy respectively.
The outside draw is awkward, but Ethan Brown can use his early speed to slide across and settle prominently.
| 8. Point Of Law (13) J: Ethan Brown 55kg 2141x T: Ciaron Maher |
LAA DE SHA (7) returns for the first time since an unlucky run at Bendigo in May, where he finished less than a length away in a stronger race.
The Team Hayes-trained gelding has won three of his five first-up starts, including a course-and-distance win early in his career.
He is also unbeaten at Geelong, with both of his wins here coming over 1200m.
Two jump-outs should have him ready to produce a bold showing.
He looks set to settle just behind a strong speed, with Jackson Radley’s 1.5kg claim in his favour.
| 7. Laa De Sha (5) J: Jackson Radley 57.5kg 1205x T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes | |||
| Gelding returning from a spell and has won previously when first up. Finished off last preparation fifth of 11 at Bendigo Bm84 May 2 over 1300m, 0.9 len behind Quiseen with 56kg at $9. Previous preparation first-up won by 1.5 len Cranbourne Bm70 December 27 over 1200m defeating Highland Harley with 59kg at $5.50. In the mix. | |||
BELLA VERONA (10) made a big impression on debut last preparation, putting her rivals away with consummate ease.
The Matt Laurie-trained mare has continued to improve this time in work, winning first-up at Bendigo before following up over 1447m here.
She proved too strong last start despite an unfavourable run and should be fitter third-up.
The rise in class comes with weight relief, while the sticky gate is the main concern.
With some luck from the draw, she looks a strong chance to finish the day at Geelong on a high.
| 10. Bella Verona (11) J: Patrick Moloney 56kg 23×11 T: Matt Laurie | |||
| Third-up today and placed third-up in the past. First-up favourite; won by 1.0 len in a Cl1 at Bendigo on September 20 over 1300m defeating Endless Summer with 59kg at $1.80. Second run from a spell favourite; ran on from midfield and won by 0.8 len in a Bm66 at this track on October 7 over 1447m on a rain affected track defeating Mount Sabyinyo carrying 60kg at $1.70. Has come back well, with any luck she’ll go close again. | |||