Evan Psarras previews every game in Round 21 of the 2024 NRL Premiership.
Poor goal kicking proved costly for the Warriors last week. They lost 20-18 to the Raiders despite scoring 4 tries to 3 meaning they are down to 14th on the ladder and in a must-win situation. The Tigers were in a winning position themselves against the Rabbitohs with 20 minutes to go but conceded three converted tries in the space of 13 minutes. They have now lost their last 4 but do get Koroisau and Papali’i back for this one. The Warriors will be without Tuaupiki (concussion protocols), Nicol-Klokstad and Pompey (knee) while Shaun Johnson is at least another week away.
Head To Head:
This matchup has been a source of points for the Warriors as they have won the last 6 battles. The series has been more competitive than the overall record suggests with an average winning margin of 7ppg and five of the wins coming by no more than 8 points. The Warriors have won 6 of the last 8 as the home team which includes a 4-2 line record in the last 6 as a home favourite. Only 3 of the last 8 meetings have produced more than 40 total points but that has been impacted by a substantial number of games being played in Australia during the pandemic. Notably, 5 of the last 7 clashes on New Zealand soil have had 48+ total match points.
Stats That Matter:
The Tigers are 0-8 both straight up and at the line in their last 8 away games. They were able to dig in defensively in the first half of the season but have fallen apart in the last month and have conceded 40+ points in each of their last 4. They have covered the line in only 6 of their last 19 following a loss and after being an Unders team for the better part of this season, the Over has hit in each of their last 3. That trend should continue as the Warriors have leaked 30.6ppg across their last 5 with the Over going 6-0 in their last 6 home games. The Warriors have lost only 3 of their last 12 as the home team but covering the line has not been one of their strengths as suggested by a 1-7 line record in their last 8 as a home favourite.
Prediction:
The wheels have fallen off the Tigers train in the last month and their goal line defence, lor lack thereof, has been severely exposed. They have conceded tries to props in recent weeks (Moale, Hamlin-Uele and Terell May among others) and a long list of backrowers including Radley, Katoa and Nikora. The Warriors duo of Fonua-Blake and Barnett both crossed for tries last week but this week I can see Te Maire Martin supplying an array of short balls to his edge players in this one. Niukore could be one of the beneficiaries in what will be a big win for the Warriors!
Warriors v Tigers Tips:
Best Bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.83)
Same Game Multi: Warriors -13.5, Niukore Anytime Tryscorer, 61 Points or More ($14.12)
Last week’s battle was supposed to be a genuine test for the Storm, and they passed it with flying colours. They held the highest scoring team to 8 points in a commanding 28-8 victory – their 6th consecutive win. Craig Bellamy continues to get the best out of his side with Howarth taking his opportunity in the starting side with both hands and Fa’alogo filling in across the backline effectively when called upon. The news gets better with Cameron Munster due back (named on extended bench) and the duo of Asofa-Solomona and Welch also available. The same cannot be said about the Eels with Moses out for the season after sustaining a bicep injury in the Origin decider and rookie Charlie Guymer out long term with an ankle issue.
Head To Head:
In a span of 18 months from March 2021 through to August 2022, the Eels won four in a row against the Storm. The Melbournians have bounced back since with wins in each of the last three including a crushing 48-16 win in Round 11 earlier this year. Harry Grant had a double in that contest and has scored at least one try in each of his last three appearances against the Eels. When the Eels have been at full strength, they have been able to contain the Storm – especially at home with the Under holding on in each of the last 5 clashes in Sydney. Nevertheless, the odds have played a factor in the results with the Storm successfully covering the line in 3 of the last 4 as an away favourite.
Stats That Matter:
The Eels have lost 10 of their last 11 including each of their last 5 in a horrific run for a team that had prided itself on consistency in recent seasons. They have failed to cover the line in their last 5 and have posted a 3-11 line record in matches as the underdog in the last year. The Storm have won 6 of their last 7 as an away favourite but have been questionable at the line with a 6-13 line record (31%) on the back of a win in the last 12 months. They have been involved in some very high scoring games on the road in the last two months with the Over hitting in each of their last 4 away games. There has been an average of 57.5 total match points in those games with both teams scoring 20+ points in all four fixtures.
Prediction:
With the Eels battered and bruised, the Storm have justifiably been installed as unbackable favourites. With nothing to play for and a host of their regulars sidelined, the Eels defence has caved in time and time again and they have allowed an alarming 32.5ppg across their last 11. They must now try and find a way to contain a Storm attack that has averaged 36ppg in its last three away games – all wins. This is the same Storm team that carved through the Roosters defence with 8 linebreaks last week and have been relentless regardless of their opposition. Warbrick has scored at least one try in 4 of his last 5 away games for the Storm while Fa’alogo has 5 in his last 5 despite starting only two of those games. Storm in a landslide.
Eels v Storm Tips:
Best Bet: Storm -17.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer, Fa’alogo Anytime Tryscorer, Grant Anytime Tryscorer ($12.48)
With Reynolds back on deck last week, the Broncos fired a warning shot at the rest of the competition. His return unlocked Walsh around the back and allowed Mam to return to what he does best – run the ball and support through the middle. The 30-14 win over the Knights ended a 6-game losing streak and they moved within 2 points of the 6th placed Bulldogs. Their run of winning nail biters came to an end in Townsville last week, but they did manage to limit the Cowboys to 20 points. No major changes to report for the visitors while the Broncos will be even more dangerous with Cobbo slated to return after failing to back up following the Origin decider.
Head To Head:
The Broncos have gotten the better of the Bulldogs in recent years with wins in 10 of the last 13 meetings including each of the last 5. Moreover, the Broncos have won the last 7 clashes as the home team and their dominance is further highlighted by their success at the line in this matchup. They have covered the line in the last 5 meetings overall and 7 of the last 9 as a home favourite. The Over has hit in 9 of the last 13 encounters hosted by the Broncos and containing their outside back will be a tough task as Broncos wingers have combined for 9 tries in the last 5 battles against the Bulldogs.
Stats That Matter:
We have constantly talked about the Bulldogs defence this season and it continues to be their biggest asset. The Under is 6-0 in their last 6 and they have held teams to 16.6ppg this season. A 1-8 record in their 9 away games this season highlights their biggest weakness and a lack of spark in attack has been the biggest issue. They have scored more than 20 points on only one occasion as the away team this season which tilts the scales heavily in the Broncos favour here. An 0-5 both straight up and at the line in the Broncos last 5 home games is a reminder of their struggles during the Origin period but their attack returned with a vengeance last week and the Over has hit in 11 of their last 13 following a win.
Prediction:
Despite a horrible run during the Origin period the Broncos remain in contention for the finals. Furthermore, there are two top 8 matchups this week so a win here would see the Broncos close the game on the teams above them – including the Bulldogs. Adam Reynolds slotted right back into the side and his goal kicking (5 from 5 last week) will help them cover the line in the coming weeks. The Bulldogs have been enormous defensively but lack direction and execution with the ball in the attacking 20m zone. Holding out the Broncos attack at Suncorp Stadium is no easy task and as was the case last week, cannot see them holding the home team to fewer than 20 points. The Broncos will build on last week’s performance with another dominant win.
Broncos v Bulldogs Tips:
Best Bet: Broncos -9.5 ($1.85)
Same Game Multi: Broncos WIN, Under 47.5 points, Mariner Anytime Tryscorer ($5.91)
The Cowboys improved to 6-2 in their last 8 with a narrow win over the Bulldogs and this week will have to contend with a Sharks side fresh off the bye. The Sharks found their feet in a 58-6 win over the Tigers prior to the bye but it came at a price with Kennedy earning a suspension. Liam Ison will make his debut at fullback as Atkinson is required to continue his partnership in the halves alongside Trindall with Hynes unavailable. For the Cowboys, Purdue has been named in the centres with Holmes shifting to the wing but there could be a late change with Taulagi named on the extended bench.
Head To Head:
The Sharks dominance in this series continues. They completed the season double over the Cowboys last year and have an opportunity to repeat the dose in 2024 after piling on the points in a 42-6 win back in Round 7. Mulitalo scored a double in that one and has crossed for 5 tries in his last 3 against the Cowboys. The Sharks have won 11 of the last 12 clashes with their only defeat in that stretch coming via golden point in a crucial finals match in 2022. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings hosted by the Sharks and they have held the Cowboys to 12 points or less in 6 of the last 8 battles overall.
Stats That Matter:
With respect to momentum, the edge is with the Sharks. They have won 9 of their last 14 following a win with a 71% success rate at the line in those matches. In comparison, the Cowboys have a losing 5-6 record during the same period when coming off a last start win with a poor 36% success rate at the line in those games. Moreover, the Cowboys have successfully covered the start in only 2 of their last 8 as a home favourite while the Sharks are an impressive 5-2 both straight up and at the line in their last 7 as an away outsider. The Sharks have been able to contain the Cowboys attack for an extended period and we could witness a low scoring contest with the Under holding on in 9 of the Sharks previous 12 away games.
Prediction:
Many thought the Tigers were a chance of an upset when Hynes was ruled out a fortnight ago, but his absence galvanised the team. It was their best performance since an upset away win over the Broncos in Round 14 and the trip north has been a fruitful one with the Sharks coming away with the points in their last 5 against the Cowboys in Townsville. This will be the 3rd game in 11 days for the Cowboys Origin players which must be given some consideration given the nature of their last two games. The Sharks are a great play here both at the line and 13+.
Cowboys v Sharks Tips:
Best Bet: Sharks +2.5 ($1.90)
Value: Sharks 13+ ($4.75)
Same Game Multi: Sharks +6.5, Under 49.5 points, Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer ($4.98)
The Roosters headed to Melbourne last week as favourites on the back of an impressive four-game win streak but were stopped in their tracks by a relentless Storm side. Their next test is an Eagles team coming off back-to-back wins by a margin of 30+ points with enigmatic fullback Tom Trbojevic back to his best. Trent Robinson has named the same 17 for the home side with the only change being Collins and Leniu to start in the front row relegating Terell May to the bench. The Sea Eagles will be without Lehi Hopoate (eye socket) with Ben Trbojevic shifting to centre and Talau out to the wing.
Head To Head:
This has been a seesawing matchup with the two teams sharing the spoils across the last 8 clashes. The Roosters have won and covered the line in the last 3 battles as the home team and have won 12 of the last 17 overall when installed as the betting favourite. With the Eagles winning 10 of the last 11 as the betting elect, the favourite has been dominant in this series. Despite both sides boasting an abundance of attacking weapons, defence has been the determining factor in their recent meetings with no more than 42 total match points across their last five matches. The total for this one was set at 51.5 points but none of the last 9 encounters have produced more than 50 total match points.
Stats That Matter:
In the last year, there has been no better time to back the Roosters than after a loss. They have won 7 of their last 8 following a defeat and a 7-1 line record in those games highlights just how dominant they have been in this spot. The Over has hit in 75% of those games but that is countered by a 8-4 Under record in their last 12 home games. The Roosters defence has been outstanding at home this season where they have held their opposition to 13.1ppg. The most they have conceded in a single home game this season is 22 points and that came against the Panthers. The Sea Eagles have been unstoppable on the northern beaches this season but have not been able to replicate that form on the road. They have won only 1 of their last 7 as an away underdog and have a 33% success rate at the line in away games played in the last year.
Prediction:
Historically, this is a great spot to be backing the Roosters but giving away more than a converted try start seems excessive. The Eagles have quality across the park, the ace up the sleeve with Tom Trbojevic and the short kicking game of Cherry-Evans when attacking the opposition line. Taking the Roosters 1-12 is a better option than backing them to cover the line and the Unders should be used in any same game multis. Daniel Tupou is the pick of the tryscorers as he has 5 in his last 5 against the Eagles and has crossed for 6 tries in his last 5 leading into this one.
Roosters v Sea Eagles Tips:
Best Bet: Roosters 1-12 ($3.05)
Same Game Multi: Roosters WIN, Under 51.5 points, Tupou Anytime Tryscorer ($4.31)
Nathan Cleary returned from injury in style! The two-time Clive Churchill Medal winner was instrumental in the Panthers come from behind win and slotted an incredible 40m field goal in golden point to seal the win. The Premiers did it without To’o, Luai, Martin and Yeo who all return after being rested but Dylan Edwards remains sidelined through injury. The Dragons beat the Broncos without their Origin players a fortnight ago and the two points courtesy of the bye last week has them on the same points as the 6th placed Bulldogs heading into the round but sitting in 9th due to an inferior for and against. Like the Panthers, their Origin players (Lomax and Hunt) return to the starting side.
Head To Head:
Leading into their Round 13 clash earlier this season, the Panthers had won 6 in a row against the Dragons. That streak came to an end as the Dragons came from 10-0 down to beat the Panthers 22-10 at the foot of the mountains. It is essential to mention that the Panthers were without all their Origin players so we cannot give the Dragons more credit than they deserve for that win. What the Dragons do deserve credit for is consistently outperforming market expectations when they face the Panthers. Despite losing 5 of the last 6 and each of the last 3 as the home team, they have posted a 5-0 record at the line in the last 5 battles overall. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 encounters at WIN Stadium with an average of only 25.7 total match points across those matches.
Stats That Matter:
The Dragons have won and covered the line in each of their last 3 home games and this is accompanied by outright wins in 3 of their last 8 as a home underdog. Their biggest issue in the last few seasons is a lack of consistency which is evident in the last year where they have won only 2 of their last 9 following a win. A 33% success rate at the line in those matches is also concerning but there is some hope as the Panthers have successfully covered the line in only 3 of their last 9 as an away favourite. One area that the Panthers have been able to rely on, regardless of who takes the field for them, is their defence. They have conceded 15.4ppg across their last 10 games – a stretch where they were missing or resting key players for the majority of the games.
Prediction:
The Dragons have done well to be fighting for a spot in the top 8 but we should not forget that their away wins over the Panthers and Broncos in Rounds 13 and 19 respectively, were achieved in the absence of the Origin players. We have also seen things go horribly wrong for the Dragons in numerous matches. An average losing margin of 26.3 highlights this with a 13+ margin of defeat in 7 of their 8 losses. Cleary will be brimming with confidence following last week’s performance and with the likes of Yeo and Martin back, he will get a tonne of time and space with the ball. His combination with Luai will resume and look for Brian To’o to go on a try scoring spree in the coming weeks.
Dragons v Panthers Tips:
Best Bet: Panthers -11.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Panthers 41 points or More, To have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) – To’o/Turuva ($7.08)
The Dolphins golden point loss against the Panthers last week may hurt their finals prospects in the coming weeks. They will view it as two points dropped and are in danger of falling out of the top 8 if they fail to bounce back here. The same 17 will have a chance to get things back on track and the same applies to the Titans following a poor result in Round 20. The Titans scored the opening two tries of the game and held the Sea Eagles scoreless for the first half an hour. Once the home side found the try line it was lights out as they ran in 38 unanswered points.
Head To Head:
This is the one Queensland derby that the Dolphins have had great success in with victory in all three editions thus far. The two wins last season came by a combined total of 4 points, but they were far more dominant in Round 4 earlier this year – running away with it 30-14. Bostock scored a double in that one, but the Dolphins have notably had success attacking the Titans through the middle. They have had a long list of forwards score against the Titans including Kenny Bromwich, Jarrod Wallace, Mark Nichols and Josh Kerr.
Stats That Matter:
Both teams have performed better at the line when coming off a loss rather than a victory. The Dolphins have posted an 8-5 record at the line in the last year following a loss while the Titans are marginally better at 9-6 in the same scenario. The Titans have had difficulties on the road where they have won only 3 of their last 10 but the most distinct recent trend with them surrounds the total. The Under is 3-0 in their last 3 away games and 4-1 in their last 5 overall. In comparison, the Over is 4-0 in the Dolphins last 4 home games with at least 51 total match points in 5 of their last 6 leading into this one. The Dolphins have been most effective attacking down their left with Bostock scoring 4 tries in his last 5.
Prediction:
In recent weeks we have highlighted the Titans specific tactics of trying to slow down the ruck. They did it successfully for the first 30 minutes against the Eagles until things spiralled out of control. The strategy will not change here and will be accommodated by referee Todd Smith. In the Titans last 8 matches controlled by Smith, there has been an average of 43 total match points with 50+ total points in only one of those games. These are 2 of the top 3 teams with respect to completion rate (both at 81%) which will see the bulk of the game played between the 20m lines. In addition to this, the Titans have averaged only 12.7ppg in their last 3 as the away team. Win, lose or draw there is one player that will score for his team and that is Khan-Pereira. He has scored 16 tries in his last 11!
Dolphins v Titans Tips:
Best Bet: Under 53.5 points ($1.90)
Value: To Have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Khan-Pereira/Bostock ($3.60)
The Rabbitohs kept their finals hopes alive with a 42-28 win over the Tigers but the match was in the balance until the closing stages. The same can be said about the Raiders who ended a four-game losing streak with a 2-point win over the Warriors. They can thank the boot of Jamal Fogarty who kicked 4 from 4 which allowed the Raiders to claim the points despite scoring fewer tries than their opponent. Ricky Stuart has named an unchanged 17 and there is just the one change for the visitors with Host replacing Chee-Kam on the edge.
Head To Head:
Every team has a bogey side and for the Rabbitohs, that team is the Raiders. The Raiders have won 8 of the last 11 meetings including 4 of the last 5. The favourite has won only 58% of the last 19 meetings and there isn’t much between them in betting this time either. The Over has hit in each of the last 3 meetings overall but their battles at GIO Stadium have been very low scoring with an average of 34 total match points across the last five clashes at this venue.
Stats That Matter:
Raiders fans will be questioning whether their side can build on last week’s victory. They are 3-6 both straight up and at the line in their last 9 following a win with their three most recent home wins coming by a total of only 7 points. The Raiders have done an excellent job of winning close games in recent years but an average winning margin of 7.0 points from 2023 onwards tells us that that blowout victories are few and far between. The Rabbitohs have won only 1 of their last 6 as an away outsider but it is worth noting that most of those games came during their mid-season slump.
Prediction:
The Unders in the Raiders game against the Warriors last week was the best bet of the round and we will be sticking with that here. Fogarty’s kicking game pinned the Warriors on their line, and it is not a surprise that the Warriors needed to rely on props through the middle to score tries. That is unlikely to be the case with the Bunnies as their strike power is out wide. Alex Johnston has 5 in his last 3 against the Raiders and has hit his straps in recent weeks with back-to-back doubles in his last two. Want to be on the Unders and either team to win by a single digit margin.
Raiders v Rabbitohs Tips:
Best Bet: Under 50.5 points ($2.00)
Same Game Multi: Tri bet 1-12 – Either Team by Under 12.5, Alex Johnston Anytime Tryscorer, 41-50 Total Match Points ($10.28)