NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 20

Todd Smith

• The Panthers are 7-6 with a 6-7 cover record
• The Broncos are 9-6 with a 6-9 cover record
• The over is 9-4 in Panthers games
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games
• The over hits at 54% when a fav of 6.5 or more

Todd Smith is one of the leading over referees in the NRL and Penrith have a big over record on his watch, a rarity for such a big under side.

Ref Lean: Over 44.5 @ $1.90

Ashley Klein

• The Sharks are 11-13 with a 12-12 cover record
• The Knights are 4-10 with a 5-9 cover record
• Faves of 6.5 or more cover at 61%
• The under is 17-7 in Sharks games
• The over is 10-4 in Knights games

Ashley Klein is a big favourite official and with the Knights having such a dire record under his whistle, the Sharks are one of the better ref pushes for the week.

Ref Lean: Cronulla -8.5 @ $1.90

Gerard Sutton

• The Roosters are 10-11 with a 9-12 cover record
• The Storm are 15-5 with a 12-8 cover record
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55%
• The under is on a 9-2 run in Sutton games

The under is on such a strong run under Sutton that it needs to be bet in this match while the Roosters are close to a push as a big favourite.

Ref Lean: Under 45.5 @ $1.78

Wyatt Raymond

• The Raiders are 5-0 with a 5-0 cover record
• Souths are 3-3 with a 2-4 cover record
• The over hits at 64% when there is an interstate favourite
• The under hits at 54.5% when there is a home underdog

There are no major NRL-wide leads with Wyatt Raymond but Canberra are building an astonishing record under his whistle.

Ref Lean: Canberra +1.5 @ $1.85

Jarrod Cole

• The Warriors are 1-0 with a 1-0 cover record
• The Dragons are 0-1 with a 1-0 cover record
• The under is 13-2 in Cole’s 14 games
• The under is 6-0 when a team is favoured by 8 or more points

Jarrod Cole is only starting out on his NRL journey but he has proven himself a big under official, particularly when there is a big favourite.

Ref Lean: Under 47.5 @ $1.90

Tyson Brough

Tyson Brough is making his NRL debut so no leans in this one.

Ref Lean: No Lean

Adam Gee

• The Titans are 2-10 with a 2-10 cover record
• The Sea Eagles are 12-11 with a 10-13 cover record
• The under is 13-4 in 2026
• The under hits at 56% when there is a favourite of 4 or more
• The under hits at 61% when an interstate favourite of 4 or more

Adam Gee is a leading under official and this is a big under spot with a notable interstate favourite. Manly also have to be tried with the Titans’ dire record.

Ref Lean: Manly -5.5 @ $1.88 & Under 47.5 @ $1.90

Grant Atkins

• The Dolphins are 6-6 with a 7-5 cover record
• The Cowboys are 6-6 with a 5-7 cover record
• Home teams cover at 58%
• The over is 8-4 in Cowboys games

There is nothing big enough to push for a lean under Grant Atkins this week despite the strong record of home teams making the Dolphins close to a push.

Ref Lean: No Lean