We have two ripping days of Rugby League across Saturday and Sunday with triple-headers on each day after a Friday night affair between the Knights and Dragons that will be telling of Newcastle’s season.
We have just one Friday affair this week and it is going to take some wagering to generate interest with the Knights firmly in the Top 8 and at home with a raucous crowd sure to be in attendance while the Dragons are mired at the bottom of the ladder with both the worst attack and worst defence. The way this game shapes up is that the Dragons will struggle to score – they have scored 12 or fewer in four of their last five – while the Knights will likely land somewhere around the 28-to-36 mark with Newcastle scoring 28 in all seven games Kalyn Ponga has played. There is a big watch on Ponga’s availability too with the fullback no certainty to backup from Queensland duty. While the minus is a better bet than the plus, the top play is under. The under has hit in nine of the last 12 Newcastle-St George Illawarra games with five of the last six finishing 44 or fewer. The under is 24-18 when the Knights play at home and 8-3 when they play bottom three teams while it is 25-18 when the Dragons are on the road. The Dragons right edge has allowed 43% of their tries and Dylan Lucas has six tries in his last five games. Greg Marzhew has 10 tries in his last five games. Fletcher Sharpe has 27 tries in 37 NRL games and is a must-include in SGMs.
Tips
Best: Under 49.5 ($1.90)
Next: St George Illawarra Under 18.5 ($1.80)
Tryscorer: Dylan Lucas ($12.50 First, $2.35 Anytime)
SGM: Dylan Lucas Try/Greg Marzhew Try/Fletcher Sharpe Try ($7.68)
The Wests Tigers pulled off a memorable win – and cover! – against the Titans last week but they have generally been atrocious of late and look like nothing but bait for the exciting Dolphins team that is playing as well as any team in the premiership now. The Dolphins are up to fourth with six straight wins, conceding 14 or fewer in five of those and scoring 28-plus in all six. The Tigers have conceded at least 28 in five of six. This is an awful spot for the Tigers, who have covered just three of 11 off scoring 30-plus and seven of 19 against Top 4 teams. They have won just three of their last 14 at Campbelltown. The Dolphins are 12-5 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8 and six of nine off conceding 10 or fewer. The Dolphins defence is too strong for the Tigers to break down and they will be most unlikely to stop the train of the Dolphins attack. The minus is a super bet. Tevita Naufahu has eight tries in 10 NRL games and was absolutely superb last week when being recalled. Jamayne Isaako has 11 tries in 13 games this year and is one of the best finishers in the NRL. Kodi Nikorima has scored in two of his last three games against the Wests Tigers.
Tips
Best: Dolphins -7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Wests Tigers Under 22.5 ($1.87)
Tryscorer: Tevita Naufahu ($8.75 First, $1.73 Anytime)
SGM: Tevita Naufahu Try/Jamayne Isaako Try/Kodi Nikorima Try ($8.30)
The Titans are an absolutely outstanding bet getting 12.5 points – a number that is highly unlikely to last with Penrith almost certain to rest their three-strong State of Origin contingent – as they typically do – while centre Casey McLean will be sidelined for at least a month. A similar situation came about three weeks ago and the Warriors went from +7.5 to +1.5. Penrith have won seven straight unsurprisingly against Gold Coast but the Titans are an impressive 6-3 against the spread in the last nine with the last two wins by four or fewer points. Home underdogs of 12.5 over the last four years are 25-14 against the spread the last four years while the Titans are 8-4 against the number when a home underdog of at least eight points. Penrith are 4-8 against the spread as an interstate favourite of at least eight while they have covered two of six when favoured by at least 12. The number is too big. It also won’t last. So take the Titans plus and take it early. Arama Hau has five tries in his last eight games as a starter and is always a crazy price, even against Penrith. Thomas Jenkins is having an unforgettable season with 20 tries in 13 games – all after not being named in the original Tuesday team for Round 1. The under hits at 63% when a team is off a defensive shutout the last four seasons.
Tips
Best: Gold Coast +12.5 ($1.90)
Next: Gold Coast Win ($3.90)
Tryscorer: Arama Hau ($34 First, $5.50 Anytime)
SGM: Under 49.5/Thomas Jenkins Try/Arama Hau Try ($23.90)
Tom Trbojevic returns from a decent spell on the sideline and that sets Manly up for a comfortable win against a Canterbury team whose attack is historically inept. Manly’s win rate jumps 25% when Trbojevic is in the team and the Sea Eagles just have too much on both sides of the ball with a Top 6 scoring and defence. The Bulldogs rank 15th in scoring and have scored 16 or fewer in six of seven while Manly have conceded more than 18 just once in Kieran Foran’s tenure. Manly have won 11 of the last 13 against Canterbury with three straight wins at Accor, all by 12-plus. They have covered five of the last six clashes. The Sea Eagles have covered eight of 10 under Foran while they have covered five of seven laying at least a converted try. The Bulldogs are covering at just 33% at Accor. This has a Manly rout written all over it. Tom Trbojevic is an elite tryscorer with 117 tries in 176 games and has six tries in six appearances this year. Wingers score over 0.5 tries per game more when Trbojevic plays and Lehi Hopoate has crossed in eight of his last nine games. Tolutau Koula has 22 tries in 33 games across the last two seasons.
Tips
Best: Manly -7.5 ($1.90)
Next: Manly 13+ ($2.30)
Tryscorer: Tom Trbojevic ($9 First, $1.82 Anytime)
SGM: Tom Trbojevic Try/Lehi Hopoate Try/Tolutau Koula Try ($6.63)
The Warriors remain in New Zealand for a second straight week but leave Auckland for the cold climes of Christchurch in what is sure to host a full house full of rabid Warriors fans. This is a matchup New Zealand have dominated, winning and covering the last four, but this line looks big enough with the Warriors are awful 4-14 against the spread laying at least eight points. The top play in this one is the over with five of the last seven reaching at least 49 points. The over is 25-13 in day games this season. When the Warriors are off conceding 12 or fewer, the over is 13-8 while it is 9-3 when the Cowboys play a Top 2 team. The Warriors are going to be able to score on the Cowboys, with nine of their 14 games tallying at least 46 points. The total is a good play. The Warriors concede 44% of their tries down their left and Heilum Luki has seven tries in 14 games this season. Braidon Burns has 20 tries in 27 games since joining the Cowboys. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has 14 tries in 13 games this season.
Tips
Best: Over 51.5 ($1.90)
Next: 61+ Points ($3.40)
Tryscorer: Helium Luki ($21 First, $3.50 Anytime)
SGM: Helium Luki Try/Braidon Burns Try/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try ($10.91)
Few teams have caused the Storm more grief in recent years than Ricky Stuart’s Raiders, who will be hoping to use this game to stop their freefall that has seen them win just one game in their last five. Canberra have won their last two and four of their last six against the Storm including a 26-22 win in Round 7. They have covered in five of the last six Raiders-Storm clashes. There is a big angle that has the Storm as complete poison in this one: Teams outside the Top 8 who are favoured by at least eight points cover at 38%. Melbourne have covered just two of eight when favoured by at least eight points. Canberra are 28-18 against the number as an underdog with a 14-6 cover record on the road getting at least a try. Joe Chan is playing in the centres. The Storm also have key players backing up from Origin. The Raiders are a tremendous bet. Melbourne have been awfully defensively on their right edge and now Joe Chan has been named at centre so working around the Raiders left edge to score. Hudson Young has a great tryscoring record with 57 tries in 151 games. Matt Timoko has scored in his last two against the Storm.
Tips
Best: Canberra +8.5 ($1.90)
Next: Canberra Win ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Hudson Young ($19 First, $3.15 Anytime)
SGM: Hudson Young Try/Matt Timoko Try ($9.98)
The hardest betting game of the round is the final – and perhaps best – game of the week. It is remarkable how similar these teams are. Both are in the Top 8. Both rank Top 8 in scoring and defence. Both have a strong record of beating up on lower-ranked teams and struggle against elite opposition. We see both teams come off poor attacking showings but suspect this game will have some points in it. The over has hit in four of the last five clashes between these two with three of the last four surpassing 49 points. The over is 24-16 when the Roosters are off a loss, 15-7 when that loss is by double digits and 5-1 when they are off conceding 40-plus. The over is 10-7 when Cronulla are off scoring 12 or fewer. The over is the play in a difficult game. Billy Smith is a classy finisher who has 10 tries in 23 games across the last two seasons. KL Iro is a fine tryscorer with 21 tries in 26 games.
Tips
Best: Over 50.5 ($1.90)
Next: Both Teams To Score 20+ ($1.98)
Tryscorer: Billy Smith ($13 First, $2.45 Anytime)
SGM: Billy Smith Try/KL Iro Try ($5.73)