Magic Round is upon us and our stats team has dug through the five post-Covid editions to see what tidbits of treasure could be found.
Teams That Love Magic Round
The only team to win all five Magic Round games since 2021 is Ricky Stuart’s Canberra Raiders. The Raiders covered three of those. Four of those wins have been in one-score games. Unfortunately for bettors, the Raiders have a bye this week. Newcastle have won and covered three straight Magic Round games with a bye in 2023. Penrith have won and covered four of their last five Magic Round games with their only loss coming in a shock upset to the Warriors. The Wests Tigers have certainly overachieved with three wins in their last five with four covers over that stretch.
Teams That Hate Magic Round
Magic Round has been completely diabolical for St George Illawarra with not a single win or cover in the last five years, their only decent result being their 2024 bye. Their last three losses have been to non-finalists Wests Tigers twice and Gold Coast. This week they go in 26.5-point underdogs against Penrith. Parramatta have lost and failed to cover their last four Magic Round games, losing their last two by double digits. Canterbury have won just one of their last five Magic Round games, ending a four-game losing streak last season.
What About The Wahs?
The Warriors put together three straight losses from 2021-23 with losses to Parramatta, Souths and Penrith with just a single cover in that stretch before downing Penrith 22-20 in 2024 and North Queensland 30-26 last year. This will be the first time in the last six seasons that the Warriors go into a Magic Round game favoured. The over is 3-2 in the last five Warriors Magic Round affairs. It is notable that the Warriors have won and covered both games under Andrew Webster.
The Dog Days Aren’t Over
Underdogs have been very good betting propositions on Magic Round. While favourites are 23-17, the hotpots have covered at just 40% with 16 covers in the 40 matches. Underdogs went 3-5 against the number last year but had gone 17-7 against the spread from 2022-24 with 6-2 cover record in 2022 and 2024. Over the last four seasons, underdogs of more than a converted try are 9-5 against the spread.
The Locals
Locals do not have a particularly strong record over Magic Round. Queensland teams are 10-8 with a 7-11 cover record. The locals lost and failed to cover all four games last season while in 2024 they won three of four games but covered just one, making Queensland teams just 1-7 against the spread the last two seasons. No Queensland team has a 50% cover rate the last five seasons. The over is 11-7 when Queensland teams play with the over 4-1 in Titans games.
It’s An Over Weekend
The over is 24-16 in the 40 games since 2021, making it a 60% proposition. Only one year failed to reach at least 50% when 2023 went 3-5. It has been night games though that have gone over with the over 17-8 under lights. Afternoon games are 8-7 to the under with the under 7-2 across the last three seasons.
Tryscoring Wizards
Josh Addo-Carr is the leading Magic Round tryscorer with seven tries including a hat-trick for Melbourne against St George Illawarra in 2021 while Selwyn Cobbo has six tries with hat-tricks in 2022 and 2023, both against Manly.
Warriors Tryscorers
Adam Pompey and Marcelo Montoya are the leading Warriors tryscorers in Magic Round games post-covid with three apiece. Montoya and Luke Metcalf are the only two Warriors to post doubles. No Warrior has scored a hat-trick over that period. Just five players in the current Warriors squad has scored a try for New Zealand in Magic Round.
Where The Warriors Concede and Where They Don’t
The Warriors have conceded 23 Magic Round tries since 2021 with seven of those going to wingers, four to halves and three to fullbacks. Notably just one edge backrower has scored against the Warriors on Magic Round over the last five seasons.