US Basketball Tips & Preview | Monday 4 May

US Basketball Tips & Preview | Monday 4 May

Detroit
vs
Orlando
Monday, 7:40am
Under 201.5 ($1.92)

Detroit pulled off one of the all-time great playoff comebacks in Game 6 to keep their season alive and force a Game 7 on Monday. A horror second quarter saw Detroit score just 12 points and head into halftime trailing 38-60, but it was then Orlando’s turn to experience offensive hell, as the visitors locked in for one of the best 24-minute defensive spells in recent memory. They crowded the paint on drives and rotated expertly on the perimeter, while maintaining high intensity for the entire half to hold Orlando to just 11 points in the third quarter and only eight points in the fourth quarter. It was an incredible defensive display from JB Bickerstaff’s men, led by Ausar Thompson, who was seemingly everywhere. The youngster finished with four blocks and one steal, but his defensive impact went far beyond his box score numbers, while Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris, Paul Reed and even Duncan Robinson had significant defensive contributions. Cunningham also starred offensively, taking over for 19 points in the fourth quarter to seal the comeback on his way to 32 points, 10 rebounds, four steals and one block. Tobias Harris also had some important fourth quarter buckets to have nine points in the period and finish with 22 points and 10 boards, Robinson had 14 points, including a back-breaking three, and Reed played a crucial role off the bench despite finishing with just six points, six rebounds and three blocks.

Orlando still won’t be able to believe quite how they let a 24-point third quarter lead turn into a 14-point loss. It was an amazing collapse to watch live, as they went ice cold everywhere on the floor offensively and, on the other end, committed dumb fouls to allow for a 15-51 Detroit run. There ended up being 23 consecutive missed field goals for Orlando in one of the all-time ugly offensive runs, and a golden opportunity to progress to the second round slipped through their hands in the process. Paolo Banchero (17 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, 4/20 FGs) was the main cause of the issues, forcing shot after shot despite often being swarmed on drives and well-covered on the perimeter, while Jalen Suggs (seven points, seven assists, 1/10 FGs) also forced a slew of bad shots. Desmond Bane missed some good looks in crucial moments on his way to 17 points and Wendell Carter Jr didn’t show enough aggression in his 32 minutes, with just five FGAs and no rebounds.

Orlando won’t be as bad as what they were on Saturday, but their confidence will be shot after their disastrous showing. I still don’t trust Detroit’s offence, despite Cunningham’s dominance and Harris’ shot creation in the post in the second half, and that sets us up for an ugly game in the decider.

Cleveland
vs
Toronto
Monday, 11:40am
Toronto +8.5 ($1.87)

Cleveland weren’t able to close out the series on Saturday, with a crucial turnover from Evan Mobley leaving the door open for Toronto, allowing RJ Barrett to win the game in overtime with a dramatic three off the heel. The 110-112 defeat was another tough road result for Kenny Atkinson’s team in the series, but to their credit, Cleveland came back from a 85-96 fourth-quarter deficit to then force overtime via a Mobley layup, only for the young star to undo his good work in the dying seconds of overtime, as Collin Murray-Boyles knocked the ball out of Mobley’s hands and onto his knee, then going out of bounds for a game-changing turnover. Mobley was Cleveland’s best on Saturday, with the forward dropping 24 points, 14 rebounds and three assists. James Harden neared a triple-double and generated some good looks from deep for Cleveland in overtime, but they weren’t able to convert them, as Harden finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, nine assists and two steals, although he shot just 49.4% TS%. Donovan Mitchell also had a poor shooting night, with a 46.2% TS% for 24 points and the shooting woes from the floor were widespread, with the team recording just a 48.9% eFG% and a 108.9 offensive rating.

Toronto will be elated to have kept their season alive with their Canadian star Barrett coming up as the hero, draining what will go down as an iconic three-point shot to win Game 6. The three-ball hit the heel of the rim and skied at least a metre into the air, before dropping through the hoop to put the hosts up 112-110 and they did just enough to defend Mobley’s game-winner attempt at the other end to keep their season alive. it was a spirited defensive effort from the team, particularly from Jamal Shead, Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles, and although their offence was extremely shaky in the fourth, with just 12 points, their defence held firm in OT to limit the visitors to just six points. Barnes was elite on both ends as he dropped 25 points, seven rebounds, 14 assists, three steals and three blocks and Ja’Kobe Walter showed his two-way prowess as well with 24 points, five rebounds, three steals and one block as Brandon Ingram (heel) sat out. Barrett finished with 24 points, nine rebounds and three assists despite having an up-and-down shooting performance, and Murray-Boyles had 17 points, seven rebounds, two steals and three blocks to help Toronto get home.

Ingram is likely out again for Toronto which is a real blow in this matchup, but we have seen regularly in this matchup that Darko Rajakovic’s men have the ability to really test this Cleveland side. While Cleveland have looked like a different team at home, things get much more dicey in Game 7s and I really don’t trust their offence, especially with Mitchell having looked a little off in the last four games. As big underdogs, Toronto are clearly the bet here.