NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 17

Gerard Sutton

• The Eels are 5-10 with a 6-9 cover record
• Souths are 11-9 with a 13-7 cover record
• Road faves cover at 57%
• The under is 13-7 in Souths games
• The under is 7-1 in his last eight games

Gerard Sutton is an elite front-running referee with road favourites having a particularly strong record. He has been in elite under form with Souths having a strong under record on his watch.

Ref Lean: Souths -5.5 @ $1.85 & Under 48.5 @ $1.90

Todd Smith

• The Titans are 5-6 with a 5-6 cover record
• The Bulldogs are 5-5 with a 4-6 cover record
• The over hits at 55% in all Smith games
• Night games go over at 57%

Todd Smith is one of the leading over referees in the NRL and his games tend to go over at night making this a small play.

Ref Lean: Over 47.5 @ $1.90

Grant Atkins

• The Broncos are 11-11 with a 14-8 cover record
• The Roosters are 19-10 with a 16-13 cover record
• The over is 17-12 in Roosters games
• The over has hit in eight of the last 12 Atkins games
• The over hits at 56% when a 6.5+ favourite
• The over hits at 57% when a Top 8 team plays a team outside the Top 8

Grant Atkins has been the No.1 over referee of late and the over tends to hit when we have a big favourite and a strong team playing a weaker team.

Ref Lean: Over 49.5 @ $1.85

Adam Gee

• The Dolphins are 5-9 with an 8-6 cover record
• The Warriors are 6-8 with an 8-6 cover record
• The under is 10-4 when the Dolphins play
• The under is 11-3 in 2026
• The under hits at 56% when there is a favourite of 4 or more

The under has been a common occurrence under Adam Gee, particularly this year, while the under has been big in Dolphins games.

Ref Lean: Under 51.5 @ $1.90

Wyatt Raymond

• The Cowboys are 2-3 with a 2-3 cover record
• The Panthers are 3-1 with a 2-2 cover record
• Interstate favourites cover at 70%
• The over hits at 63% when there is an interstate team playing
• The over hits at 70% when there is an interstate favourite

Wyatt Raymond is too inexperienced to be uber-confident on any angles but interstate favourites have an excellent record as does the over when there is an interstate side playing.

Ref Lean: Penrith -13.5 @ $1.90 & Over 50.5 @ $1.90

Ashley Klein

• Manly are 6-10 with a 7-9 cover record
• Melbourne are 16-10 with a 12-14 cover record
• Favourites have covered 11 of the last 12 Klein games
• Favourites of 4.5 or more cover 57%
• The over is 12-4 in Manly matches

Ashley Klein is a huge favourite official with the run of favourites on his watch covering almost perfect while favourites of more than a try has long been above average.

Ref Lean: Manly -6.5 @ $1.90

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski

• Canberra are 0-2 with a 0-2 cover record
• The Dragons are 1-2 with a 2-1 cover record
• The under is 3-0 in Dragons games
• The under hits in 63% of all matches
• The under hits at 70% when a double digit favourite

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski has officiated just 27 games so the volume has not been there but this is an excellent under spit with a big favourite and the Dragons playing.

Ref Lean: Under 52.5 @ $1.90

Peter Gough

• Newcastle are 10-8 with a 12-6 cover record
• Wests Tigers are 6-12 with a 9-9 cover record
• Favourites of 6.5 or more cover at 42%
• The under has hit in 11 straight Gough games

Favourites have a poor record under Peter Gough but so do the Tigers so the play in this one is riding the under train with 11 straight Peter Gough games going under the total.

Ref Lean: Under 52.5 @ $1.75