We have a full slate of games with all the State of Origin stars on hand and it is a compelling weekend of games that will have a major bearing on the finals hopes of a number of teams including Melbourne, Canterbury and Brisbane sitting out of the Top 8 and looking in.
Parramatta have been far more resolute of late but it is impossible to look past South Sydney’s domination of the Eels when tackling this game. Souths have won the last three and nine of the last 10 against Parramatta. They have scored at least 30 in seven of the last 10. They have won the last four at CommBank against the Eels by 14-plus. Souths have covered nine of the last 10. That is a remarkable period of dominance. South Sydney have also covered 11 of 17 against bottom five teams. The Eels are 14-29 against the spread against Top 8 teams while they are 13-21 against the number off a win. Souths at their best have too much firepower for the Eels. Parramatta concede 37% of tries down their right so the focus is on the Rabbitohs left edge. Cody Walker is an elite tryscorer with 104 tries in 236 games. Alex Johnston is the greatest tryscorer of all-time with 229 including 18 in 16 games against the Eels. Latrell Siegwalt has yet to score in the top grade but looks an elite prospect who gets a plus matchup.
Tips
Best: South Sydney -6.5 ($1.96)
Next: South Sydney 13+ ($2.70)
Tryscorer: Cody Walker ($16 First, $2.90 Anytime)
SGM: Cody Walker Try/Alex Johnston Try/Latrell Siegwalt Try ($10.79)
Both the Titans and the Bulldogs sit in the bottom six but all hope is not lost for 2026. Both teams come into this off a win. Gold Coast have now won two of their last three as the changes Josh Hannay has been implementing begin to take hold. Canterbury have won three of their last four and hold hopes of returning to the finals. As such we should see a strong defensive battle – only intensified by the fact Canterbury have been held to 16 or fewer in seven of their last eight matches. Both teams are in monster under spots here. The under is 22-11 when the Titans play at night. It is 24-16 when Gold Coast play a team outside the Top 8. The under is 20-13 when the Titans play at home. The under is also 16-3 when Canterbury are off conceding 12 or fewer. It is 28-15 when they play off a win. It also hits at 59.5% when the Bulldogs are favoured. This is the lowest total of the week but it is far too high. Lachlan Galvin is the top Bulldogs tryscorer with six tries, crossing nine times in blue-and-white in 27 appearances. Arama Hau has six tries in his 12 starts this season and is huge overs.
Tips
Best: Under 46.5 ($1.90)
Next: Under 38.5 ($3.10)
Tryscorer: Lachlan Galvin ($16 First, $2.85 Anytime)
SGM: Lachlan Galvin Try/Arama Hau Try ($11.21)
Brisbane’s title defence is in absolute shambles on the back of six straight losses that include handing the Dragons their only win of the season and conceding 28-plus in all six. If the Roosters are anywhere near their best they should run roughshod over the hapless Broncos. Trent Robinson has certainly made a habit of beating down Michael Maguire – at least relative to market expectations – covering 69% of their meetings. The Roosters have won nine of the last 12 against the Broncos with four covers in the last five. The Chooks have won their last four at Suncorp against Brisbane. The Broncos have failed to cover their last five against Top 8 teams while the Roosters are 24-15 against the number playing teams outside the Top 8. The Chooks are a very good bet. Lindsay Collins scored twice in five days last week – firstly for Queensland and then against the Sharks – and can take advantage of a Broncos middle that has given up 44% of their tries through the middle. Reece Robson has three tries in his last seven games and can take advantage of Brisbane’s guileless middle.
Tips
Best: Sydney Roosters -3.5 ($1.85)
Next: Sydney Roosters 13+ ($3.10)
Tryscorer: Lindsay Collins Try ($41 First, $6.50 Anytime)
SGM: Lindsay Collins Try/Reece Robson Try ($34.74)
We are set for fireworks on Saturday afternoon when the Dolphins and Warriors square off at Suncorp Stadium in an all-Top 4 affair that is without question the match of the round. These two have historically played low-scoring affairs but aside from the head-to-head history this has overs written all over it. The over is 28-13 in the 41 afternoon games this season. The over hits at just under 66% when two Top 6 teams meet off scoring 36-plus points. The over is 16-9 when the Dolphins play in the afternoon, 11-6 when they play at Suncorp when favoured and 32-23 when they are off conceding at least 20. The over is also 7-1 when the Warriors play a Top 6 team off scoring 36-plus points, 22-15 when they are an underdog and 25-19 against Top 8 teams. Chips in the over. The Warriors concede 44% down their left so Kulikefu Finefuiaki looks a great bet to his fourth try of the season. Jamayne Isaako has 59 tries in 86 games as a Dolphin. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has 14 tries in 13 games for the Wahs in 2026.
Tips
Best: Over 50.5 ($1.90)
Next: 61+ Points ($3.60)
Tryscorer: Kulikefu Finefuiaki ($26 First, $4.20 Anytime)
SGM: Kulikefu Finefuiaki Try/Jamayne Isaako Try/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try ($13.18)
North Queensland are getting a mammoth number at home and have to be the bet – even against a Penrith team usually scorned into action off a rare loss. Home underdogs of 12.5 or more are 26-14 against the spread the last four seasons. The Cowboys also have a very good recent record against the Panthers too, not losing the last three meetings and covering six of the last seven. North Queensland are a strong rebound team, covering 16 of 26 off a double digit loss and 10 of 16 off conceding 38 points. Penrith are 17-9 against the number off a loss but have covered just two of seven laying more than two converted tries and covering just four of 13 as an interstate favourite of at least eight points. This number is too big. The Panthers concede 44% of their tries down their left and Heilum Luki has had a great tryscoring season with seven in 14 games. Dylan Edwards has scored in three of his last six against the Cowboys.
Tips
Best: North Queensland +13.5 ($1.90)
Next: North Queensland Win ($3.70)
Tryscorer: Heilum Luki ($21 First, $3.60 Anytime)
SGM: Heilum Luki Try/Dylan Edwards Try ($7.64)
Manly are a far superior team to Melbourne and with the Storm playing without Jahrome Hughes this line looks far too skinny and will likely jump much higher. The Sea Eagles have been different gravy under Kieran Foran, covering eight of the 11 he has been in charge. They are entrenched in the eight and rank top six in both defence and scoring. It is their defence that has been particularly impressive, conceding more than 18 just once on his watch and working their way up to the third best defensive side in the competition. The Storm are fighting for their lives, as one would expect under Craig Bellamy, but they are really up against it this week. The loss of Hughes is massive – Melbourne’s win rate drops from 72% to 57% in his absence. The Sea Eagles have won three of the last four against the Storm at Brookvale and have covered seven of the last 10 against teams outside the Top 8. The Storm have covered just three of 13 against Top 8 teams, five of 18 night games and five of 18 games on the road. This shapes as a comfortable Manly win. The Storm right edge is a diabolical and Tolutau Koula is an absolute weapon at left centre with 22 tries in his 33 games the last two seasons. Lehi Hopoate has crossed in nine of his last 10 games and is another who can take advantage of the horrific Storm right edge. Tom Trbojevic has six tries in seven games this season.
Tips
Best: Manly -4.5 ($1.96)
Next: Manly 13+ ($3.00)
Tryscorer: Tolutau Koula ($9.50 First, $1.94 Anytime)
SGM: Tolutau Koula Try/Lehi Hopoate Try/Tom Trbojevic Try ($6.08)
St George Illawarra are not only an elite bet getting a big start this week on the road against Canberra but are one of the elite bets you will find in 2026. It is utterly absurd that Canberra could be favoured by double digits given their current form – second last on the ladder, a bottom five attack and defence, scoring 22 or fewer in five of their last six, just one win in their last six games. Favourites of eight or more who sit outside the Top 8 cover at just 38% and that drops to 34% when that team is off a loss. Favourites also cover at just 34% when two bottom five teams meet. The Raiders are an awful 16-27 against the spread when favoured and have covered at just 40% when playing a bottom five team. This is an awful spot for the Raiders made worse by the fact the Dragons have covered eight of their last nine against Canberra and six of the last seven meetings have been one-score games. St George Illawarra have covered nine of 12 getting more than a converted try and should extend that record here. The Raiders concede 48% down their right edge and Hamish Stewart has scored twice in his last eight games. Simi Sasagi gets the joy of running Valentine Holmes and is having a great tryscoring season with four tries in nine games.
Tips
Best: St George Illawarra +11.5 ($1.90)
Next: St George Illawarra Win ($3.25)
Tryscorer: Hamish Stewart ($34 First, $5.20 Anytime)
Newcastle have maintained their strong start to the season to remain inside the Top 8 but the same cannot be said of the Wests Tigers, who have faded badly and now find themselves on the outside looking in. It has been a return to form for the Tigers, whose defence has cratered, conceding 28-plus in five of six. Newcastle get conditions to suit this week, playing at home in afternoon conditions with their Origin contingent back on deck. Newcastle have scored 28 or more in every game Kalyn Ponga has played this season so the Knights scoring is a given here – and the Tigers are unlikely to be able to run with them. Newcastle are 29-17 against the spread in day games and 25-16 against the number off a win. The Tigers have covered just three of 10 day games and cover at just 39% on the road. The Tigers are 10-22 against the spread on the road getting more than a converted try. Newcastle look set for a comfortable win here. Dominic Young is a truly elite scorer who has eight tries in seven games against the Wests Tigers. Dylan Lucas has been in elite form with six tries in his last five NRL games. Greg Marzhew has 15 tries in 13 games this season.
Tips
Best: Newcastle -7.5 ($1.85)
Next: Newcastle 13+ ($2.45)
Tryscorer: Dominic Young ($9 First, $1.80 Anytime)
SGM: Dominic Young Try/Dylan Lucas Try/Greg Marzhew Try ($6.92)