NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 7

Gerard Sutton 

• North Qld are 9-4 with a 6-7 cover record 
• Manly are 9-9 with a 10-8 cover record 
• Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55% 
• The over is 12-6 in Manly games 
• The over hits at 56% when there is an interstate team

Gerard Sutton is the leading favourite referee in the NRL but that angle diminishes significantly with a favourite under a converted try. This is a nice over spot though with an interstate team and the Sea Eagles going over with his whistle work.  

Referee Lean: Over 54.5 (Small) 

Peter Gough 

• Canberra are 7-4 with a 3-8 cover record 
• Melbourne are 8-2 with a 4-6 cover record 
• Home dogs cover at 64% 
• The under is 7-4 in Canberra games 
• The over is 7-3 in Storm games

Peter Gough returns to the top grade after a week of “rest” following his disastrous Easter Monday game. He has been a big under ref this year with four straight unders but the only real angle here is Gough’s tendency to get home underdogs the cover, which is exceptionally high at 64%.  

Referee Lean: Canberra +1.5 (Small) 

Adam Gee 

• Dolphins are 4-8 with a 6-6 cover record 
• Penrith are 18-2 with a 16-4 cover record 
• The under is 8-4 when the Dolphins play 
• The under is 6-0 in 2026 
• The under hits at 54.1% in night games 
• The under hits at 58.1% when there is a 12+ favourite

Penrith have an obscenely strong record under Adam Gee with a ridiculous 16 covers in 20 games, making them a clear bet. The under is an excellent bet with every Gee game this season going under the total.  

Referee Lean: Penrith -15.5 (Big) and Under 52.5 (Big) 

Wyatt Raymond 

• New Zealand are 4-3 with a 5-2 cover record
• Gold Coast are 2-3 with a 2-3 cover record 
• Interstate teams cover at 58% 
• The over hits at 65% with an interstate team 
• The over hits at 58% when a team is getting 10+ points 

Interstate teams have an edge when Wyatt Raymond officiates. Raymond is also an over referee with the over 4-2 in his games this year. Big underdogs and interstate teams tend to exacerbate overs in Raymond games.  

Referee Lean: Gold Coast +10.5 (Small) and Over 49.5 (Small) 

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski 

• Souths are 1-1 with a 0-2 cover record 
• St George Illawarra are 1-1 with a 2-0 cover record 
• Double digit favourites cover at 33% 
• The under hits at 64%  
• The under hits at 67% when there is a 4+ favourite 
• The over is 3-0 this season 

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski does not have the length of service to have any strong leans. He is a big under referee but every game this year has gone over.  

Referee Lean: No Lean 

Todd Smith 

• The Tigers are 1-5 with a 4-2 cover record
• Brisbane are 8-6 with a 5-9 cover record 
• Favourites cover at 45% 
• Favourites of 6 or more cover at 42% 
• Night games go over at 58% 

Todd Smith is very much an underdog referee and the numbers push the Broncos here but Brisbane have a poor cover record on his watch so letting it go.  

Referee Lean: No Lean 

Ashley Klein 

• Sydney Roosters are 12-14 with a 11-15 cover record
• Newcastle are 4-8 with a 3-8 cover record 
• Favourites have covered 4 of Klein’s last 5 games 
• Double digit favourites cover at 61% 
• The over is 9-6 in Roosters home games 
• The over is 8-4 in Knights games

Ashley Klein is a big favourite referee and double digit favourites have an outstanding record. The Knights have a dire record under Klein too.  

Referee Lean: Sydney Roosters -10.5 (Big) 

Liam Kennedy 

• Parramatta are 5-4 with a 3-6 cover record 
• Canterbury are 2-3 with a 3-2 cover record 
• Favourites are 26–22 
• Home underdogs cover at 43% 
• Home underdogs of 8 or more cover at 33% 
• The under is 6-3 in Eels games 

No official is bigger poison for a big home underdog than Liam Kennedy, whose pedantic whistling strongly suits favourites.  

Referee Lean: Canterbury -13.5 (Big)