Super Rugby Pacific Round 1 | Tips & Preview

The Highlanders’ 2025 season could hardly have gone worse, finishing on the bottom of the ladder with a 3-11 record. Going winless in their final seven games, it was a grim ending to their campaign, and with the third-worst attack in the competition, there was little to cheer about for the Landers faithful across the course of the season. Some exciting players, including Lucas Casey and Tomas Lavanini, have signed in the offseason to bolster the team from the south, but they also saw a couple of key backs, in Sam Gilbert and Thomas Umaga-Jensen, depart.

The Crusaders rose back to the top of Super Rugby last year, winning their 13th title with a 16-12 victory over the Chiefs in the final. It was quite the bounceback after missing finals the season prior, and with another strong squad assembled for the 2026 season, another title will be expected in Christchurch. Leicester Faingaʻanuku is the big addition for the defending champions, while Tom Christie, Ioane Moananu, Levi Aumua and James O’Connor’s departures make for some holes to fill for coach Rob Penney.

There are a few big names missing from Penney’s side to start the season, including All Blacks Scott Barrett and Tamaiti Williams, and that leaves the defending champions vulnerable in the season opener. The Highlanders will be up for this contest at home and they have the size and work rate in their pack to disrupt the Crusaders’ forwards.

Best
Highlanders +6.5 ($1.90)

Value
Power Plays — Both Teams to Score 30+ Points ($5.00)

The Waratahs showed plenty of promise in the first half of 2025, but they fell to pieces in the back half of the season, with just one win from their final six games to finish eighth and miss finals. The pressure is now on coach Dan McKellar, who has appointed Matt Philip to captain the team this season, and New South Wales have pulled out all the stops to record improvement in 2026. Their new signings include Wallabies Harry Potter, Pete Samu and Folau Fainga’a, as well as Ioane Moananu, Jack Debreczeni and Angus Scott-Young. Unfortunately for them, their outs are just as significant, with Langi Gleeson, Angus Bell, Rob Leota, Taniela Tupou, Lalakai Foketi and Darby Lancaster being among the players who have moved on.

The Reds were one of two Australian teams to make the top six, but they were no match for the Crusaders in the quarterfinals, losing 12-32. Like with the Tahs, it wasn’t the most convincing run home in the regular season, going 3-5 in their final eight games, with their defence proving to be particularly problematic. There have been plenty of offseason changes in Queensland, with some key forwards moving on, including Angus Blyth, Ryan Smith, Richie Asiata, Sef Fa’agase, and Alex Hodgman. Aidan Ross is the big front row recruit to plug that gap, while internationally-capped first five-eighths Carter Gordon and Ben Volavola join the team, making quite the logjam at #10, with Tom Lynagh also in the mix. However, it’s Harry McLaughlin-Phillips getting the start this week thanks to injury, which is not an ideal start to the campaign.

It’s a dangerous back line for Queensland but this New South Wales team matches up well with them and their bench may well prove to be the difference in the final 20 minutes of this clash. The addition of Samu cannot be understated either, adding some elite ball-running to their team, and I expect a first-up win for the Tahs here.

Best
Waratahs -0.5 ($1.90)

Value
Waratahs 1-12 ($2.90)

The Fijian Drua had another strong season at home, with a 4-3 record in Fiji, but another winless season on the road let them down, finishing 10th with a 4-10 record. With the worst point differential in the competition, it wasn’t a pretty season for the Drua, and that was largely thanks to them having the equal-worst attack. There have been plenty of changes to the Drua’s squad, with Fiji international Temo Mayanavanua joining the team, as well as former Wallaby Issak Fines-Leleiwasa and veteran wing Manasa Mataele. Some big names have departed though, including Vuate Karawalevu and Selestino Ravutaumada, leaving some gaps in the outside backs, but we know that the Drua will still play with plenty of flair in 2026.

Moana Pasifika came close to pulling off a dream season in 2025 but fell just short, with a pair of ugly losses in their final two games denying them a spot in the finals. Sitting in sixth with two rounds to play, Moana were in with a chance to make their first-ever postseason appearance, but a 78-point loss to the Chiefs and a 52-defeat to the Hurricanes saw them fall short. Ardie Savea made a huge impact on the team in 2025 but his departure to Japan is just one of the blows that Moana have suffered in an uncertain offseason for the franchise. Pepesana Patafilo, Sione Havili Talitui, Alamanda Motuga, Sam Slade, Kyren Taumoefolau and Danny Toala are just some of the other names to have left in the offseason, and while some veterans have been brought in, such as Jimmy Tupou, Augustine Pulu and Ngani Laumape.

A fascinating clash is upon us on Saturday afternoon, but with how well the Drua typically play at home, I can’t see it being a winning start to the season for Moana Pasifika. The Drua have won 13 of their last 17 home games and covered 10 of those games. This MP squad will struggle in 2026 and the hosts will be too good on Saturday.

Best
Fijian Drua -10.5 ($1.90)

Value
Power Plays — Fijian Drua to Lead at Halftime by 11+ ($3.25)

The Blues scraped their way into the finals in 2025, with a big 46-6 victory over the Waratahs seeing the Aucklanders secure the last spot in the postseason. They then upset the Chiefs in the qualifying finals to set up a semifinal meeting with the Crusaders, but the Blues ran out of steam at that point, in a 14-21 loss. They’ll be hoping to get back to the heights of 2024 this year, but they’ll have to contend with the departure of some important pieces from recent seasons, with Rieko Ioane, Mark Tele’a, Harry Plummer, Ricky Riccitelli, Angus Ta’avao and Adrian Choat all leaving in the summer. Cody Vai and Bradley Slater headline the recruits, meaning we have a solid but perhaps not excellent season on the horizon for the Blues.

The Chiefs finished last season as the top qualifier which ended up being crucial, giving them another life after losing their qualifying final against this very Blues team. They were able to bounce back in the semifinals to defeat the Brumbies 37-147 but the ran out of steam in the final going scoreless in the second half for a 12-16 loss to the Crusaders. It will largely be the same squad running it back for 2026, minus Anton Lienert-Brown, Shaun Stevenson and Bradley Slater. In terms of the additions, veteran centre Lalakai Foketi joins from the Waratahs and Tyrone Thompson comes back to the team after spending one year with the Newcastle Knights in the NRL.

The Blues have a real challenge on their hands on Saturday, and I just can’t see them cracking this Chiefs team. It’s a rock-solid squad from the visitors, with size and athleticism throughout, and they will limit the Blues’ attack, making this the Chiefs’ game to win.

Best
Chiefs -3.5 ($1.92)

Value
Chiefs To Win Both Individual Halves — Yes ($3.00)

The Force were one of the disappointments of the season in 2025, showing plenty of promise in the first half of the year before going winless in their last six games to finish in ninth. It was a veteran team that was assembled in Perth which has resulted in some retirements in the offseason, including Sam Carter, Reed Prinsep and Nic White. Atu Moli, Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, Reesjan Pasitoa and Harry Potter have all moved onto new teams, leaving some big shoes to fill for newbies George Bridge, Darby Lancaster, Sef Fa’agase and Argentina international Franco Molina.

The Brumbies were again the gold standard for the Australian teams, finishing third in 2025. They then took care of the Hurricanes in the qualifying finals before getting thumped in the semifinals 17-37 by the Chiefs, seeing their season get cut short of where they would have hoped to get. They again look to be the pick of the bunch from across the ditch, with a well-balanced squad, but were very quiet on the recruitment front in the offseason, with Tane Edmed being the only player of note to join the franchise. On the flip side, they have lost some crucial parts of their team, including star backs Noah Lolesio and Len Ikitau, as well as young gun Tom Hooper who has headed to the UK.

Both teams have named solid-but-not-exciting squads for the last game of the round, setting us up with a low-scoring finale. This will be a real battle of the forwards, and while there are some exciting talents in the backs, such as Corey Toole and George Bridge, this game will be kept tight, making the under the bet.

Best
Under 55.5 ($1.90)

Value
Brumbies 1-12 ($2.90)