It’s been four years, almost to the day, since Scotland and New Zealand last met. That game saw the All Blacks leave Murrayfield as 31-23 victors, but it did not come easy, needing to come back from 17-23 down with 15 minutes to play. It was a similar story in the previous meeting — a 22-17 win for the ABs — as they held on for the win, indicating that the Scots are closing in on their first-ever Test win over New Zealand. The All Blacks have a dominant 30-0-2 record over Scotland, with the two draws coming in 1964 and 1983.
Scotland started their year with a mixed bag of results in the Six Nations, ultimately finishing the tournament with a 2-3 record which was good for fourth place. It was clear that they were a wee way off the likes of France and Ireland, but a 15-16 loss to England at Twickenham suggested that the Scots are capable of contending with Europe’s best on their day. Since then, Scotland picked up a tight 26-29 win over the Māori All Blacks in Whangārei, lost 14-29 to Fiji in Suva and breezed past Samoa 41-12 at Eden Park the following week, before a somewhat second-string Scottish team blitzed the USA 85-0 at Murrayfield last Sunday.
New Zealand kicked off their end of year tour with a 26-13 victory over Ireland in Chicago last week. It wasn’t the highest quality of game, but a hot final 20 minutes from the All Blacks helped them come back from a 7-13 lead to win with relative ease in the end, as the bench provided an excellent impact. It started with Tamaiti Williams, who bashed his way over the line from close range, before Wallace Sititi finished off a nice line break from Damian McKenzie to make it 21-13. Cam Roigard then iced the game with two minutes remaining, skipping across the chalk off the back of a scrum to make it a comfortable margin, capping off another impressive showing from the halfback. Caleb Clarke was a constant threat out wide and Ardie Savea put in a trademark high work-rate shift across the 80 minutes to help New Zealand get over the line.
It’s another strong All Blacks team named by Scott Robertson, with Josh Lord and Leicester Fainga’anuku replacing Scott and Jordie Barrett. Kyle Steyn starts in place of Duhan van der Merwe for Scotland in a strange decision on the wing, and I just can’t see this Scottish team keeping pace with the scoring of the All Blacks. There is excellent attacking talent in this ABs team and the bench is loaded enough to keep the points coming late in the piece, making for a relatively comfortable win in Edinburgh.
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New Zealand -9.5 ($1.90)
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New Zealand 11-20 ($3.30)