Pacific Championships | Round 1

With an increasing number of players declaring their allegiance to their native heritage, the gap between the top and bottom nations will quickly start to close in international rugby league. This match is no exception with the Fijian side boasting a host of NRL stars including the Tigers duo of Jahream Bula and Sinua Turuva. Rinakama (Bulldogs), Valemei (Cowboys), Donoghue (Dolphins) and Kamikamica (Storm) all saw plenty of game time for their respective clubs with Kitione Kautoga (Eels) a hard running backrower whose stocks will rise in the coming years. Grand Final winner Brendan Piakura and KL Iro (Sharks) will lead the way for the Cook Islands with the veteran duo of Esan Masters and Moeroa to provide plenty of support.

Stats That Matter

Fiji have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between the two nations and the bulk of those victories have been in dominant fashion. Their five victories have been by an average winning margin of 30.0 points which includes a 56-6 thumping in the most recent clash almost a year ago to the day. Valemei scored a double in that game while Turuva has scored a try in each of his two appearances against the Cook Islands. Fiji have tallied 40+ points in 4 of the last 6 meetings and we should see improvement from the Cook Island who have scored multiple tries in 3 of the last 4 meetings and posted 18+ points in two of the last three clashes.

Prediction

There is a significant gap in NRL and international experience between the respective rosters of the two nations. It leans heavily in the favour of Fiji – especially in the spine positions where the hosts have the trio of Bula, Donoghue and Wakeham. They will provide Fiji with direction and effective execution of set plays. More importantly, I expect the hosts’ kicking game to give them a significant edge. They have the class out wide (Turuva, Valemei, Rinakama) to run up a big score!

Best Bet: Fiji -16.5 ($1.90)
Value: Fiji To Win By 31-40 points ($5.60)
Same Game Multi: Turuva Anytime Try, Valemei Anytime Try, Bula Anytime Try ($6.24)

Payne Haas has dominated the headlines in recent months, and it is not just for his heroics while wearing a Broncos jersey. In August he announced that he would defect from Australia and play for Samoa at international level. He is the latest addition to an incredible side that are looming as genuine contenders for the World Cup next year. Blaze Talagi will partner Luai in the halves with Tuivasa-Sheck at fullback accompanied by To’o and Taulagi on the wings. The fact that Terell May cannot get a start tells just how strong the Samoan line-up is. Fisher-Harris, Tapine and Leota will have their work cut out for them for the Kiwis and will need the likes of Erin Clark and Whyte off the bench to add some punch. Keiran Foran will become the oldest man to play a test for the Kiwis.

Stats That Matter

With numerous significant changes to the Samoan side in recent years, the impact of the history between these two nations is minimal. Nevertheless, the Kiwis have won all five clashes including a 50-0 victory in their most recent battle in 2023. Mulitalo and Isaako both scored twice in that win, but this is a completely different Samoan side. Samoa were runners-up at the World Cup in 2022 (lost to Australia) and have not won a test since. Overcoming a five match losing streak will not be easy and the biggest change needs to be their defence which has allowed 30+ in each of their last five defeats. Of the Kiwis last 12 internationals played on New Zealand soil, none of them have produced more than 50 total match points with no more than 32 total match points in 5 of the last 7.

Prediction

Am shocked to see the total set this high and believe we are getting a full converted try more than we should be. Both nations boast world class line-ups and identifying any weaknesses will not be easy. Most of this battle will be fought through the middle third of the field and with excellent yardage players across the back five of each, gaining territorial advantage will require errors and penalties. You can put a line through any of Samoa’s recent results as they have named a SERIOUS side. Moreover, they look extremely hungry and motivated which makes for an epic contest. The Kiwis will need to be at their absolute best to fight off the Samoan challenge.

Best Bet: Under 48.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points (10.00)
Same Game Multi: Tribet 1-12 – Either Team Less Than 12.5, Taulagi Anytime Try, Under 56.5 points ($4.54)