The Cats were in all sorts when they trailed the Hawks by 13 points at quarter time but veteran Patrick Dangerfield led the fightback, and they would outscore the opposition 106-63 over the remainder of the contest to qualify for their third Grand Final since 2020. They meet the defending champion Brisbane Lions who made it through to a third consecutive Grand Final on the back of a second half onslaught against the Pies. The Cats are seeking an 11th flag (10-10 in GFs) while the Lions are looking to improve on their 4-2 record with a 5th premiership.
Head To Head
This will be the 4th meeting between them this season alone! The Lions won both regular season battles including a 41-point win at GMHBA Stadium, but the Pies were 112-74 winners in the qualifying final just weeks ago. They are no strangers to one another as this is their 5th finals clash since 2020. The Cats have a commanding 3-1 lead in those contests, but the Lions have proven that they can win on the road with victory in 2 of the last 3 battles played in Victoria. History suggests that odds matter with the Cats having won 9 of the last 11 meetings as a home favourite. This is accompanied by a 16-6 line record (73%) in the last 22 meetings overall.
Stats That Matter
Scintillating attack has been the key to the Cats success. Not only have they won their last 8 games, but they have scored 100+ points in all those victories. The Lions have also reached triple figures in their last two and their ability to win on the road cannot be ignored. They have won 6 of their last 8 games as an away underdog with an outstanding 7-1 line record in those matches. The Cats have consistently forced their opposition to play at their tempo with the Over hitting in each of their last 6 finals games. The Lions have led at quarter time in 7 of their previous 8 games when having a 7-day turnaround but replicating that will not be easy as the Cats have taken a lead into half time in 15 of their last 16 games as the home team. The 3rd term has been the highest scoring individual quarter for both teams which could result in an explosion of points following the main break.
Prediction
We were on both teams in their respective preliminary finals victories but can only back on here. The Cats could not have had a worse start last week but were still able to post a dominant 30-point win. They were dominant and efficient inside 50 in their victory over the Lions in the qualifying final and clear weather will likely lead to a repeat of that here. Close Grand Finals have been few and far between with only 1 of the last 6 decided by a margin or fewer than 30 points. Incredibly, a margin of 60+ points has separated the two teams in 4 of the last 6 Grand Finals. If the Cats rectify last week’s slow start, they could run up a big score!
Tips
Best Bet: Cats -12.5 ($1.90)
Value: Cats by 40+ ($4.00)
Same Game Multi: 3rd Quarter Over 43.5 points, Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals, Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals ($5.52)