The cream is certainly rising to the top in New York and the four men in action today are part of that conversation. The fans did not get their monies worth with all four men winning in straight sets. Moreover, the conceded a total of 25 games between them across the combined total of 12 sets in the most lob-sided day in the second week of a major in living memory.
Aussie Alex de Minaur is making the most of his career and capitalising on a period where the gap in quality between players ranked 3-50 is the smallest it has ever been. He has had the easiest path to the quarters of any player and is yet to face a player ranked in the top 50. This is his 5th Grand Slam quarter final in his last 7 major appearances but he is yet to make the final four (0-5 in Grand Slam quarter final matches). Auger-Aliassime’s lone semi final appearance came here back in 2021 and he has looked far more dangerous following wins over Zverev and Rublev. The H2H reads 3-2 in the Canadian’s favour, but more importantly, he is 3-0 in matches played on hard courts with all three of those wins coming in straight sets. The outcome of this match will be determined by Auger-Aliassime. He has a clear edge in power and can hit through De Minaur. This is also an instance where De Minaur’s advantage is speed/athleticism is minimal. Auger-Aliassime should be favourite!
Bet: Auger-Aliassime +2.5 ($1.83)
Value: Auger-Aliassime -1.5 Sets ($3.10)
We are witnessing a game within the game in recent days between the major contenders (Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic). When one has come out and dominated, the other has followed it by posting a more comprehensive win. Sinner dropped a set against Shapovalov but answered any criticism by destroying Bublik 6-1 6-1 6-1. The big question now is whether he will so any mercy to his friend and countryman. Musetti has been somewhat unexpected and despite winning comfortably, there as some concerns surrounding his statistics in those games. He has barely made more than 50% of 1st serves across his last two matches If he fails to improve significantly in that department, he will struggle to win a handful of games. Sinner has won both prior meetings in straight sets with Musetti winning a total of only 6 games across the last three sets they have played. Back Sinner to cover the handicap with confidence.
Bet: Sinner -7.5 ($1.80)