Australia v British & Irish Lions — Second Test | Tips & Preview

History
The Lions continue to strengthen their all-time ledger against Australia, with last week’s win over Australia improving their record to 18-6. The Wallabies were 2-1 victors when the British & Irish team toured in 2001, but the Lions have won three of four since then, indicating a return to dominance. Australia have won both games played between these teams in Melbourne, although this will be the first encounter at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Form
Australia were made to look ordinary in the first Test, despite the final deficit only being eight points. It was a sloppy start to play for the Wallabies, conceding a penalty goal in the opening two minutes before a converted try to the Lions made it 0-10 at the 10-minute mark. It wasn’t until the final 20 minutes of play that the hosts really looked in the hunt, as Carlo Tizzano continued his try-scoring form from the Super Rugby season to cut the deficit to 12 points with 11 minutes to play. However, another penalty goal from the visitors snuffed out the chance of a Wallabies comeback, despite Tate McDermott crossing the chalk in the dying minutes. Joe Schmidt’s men weren’t able to create opportunities for most of the game and while they warmed into the contest, it was far from a convincing performance.

There is also room for improvement for the Lions, but they will be elated to have started the series with a win. They came bursting out of the blocks, as the boot of Finn Russell recorded their first three points and then earned them a 50/22, setting up Sione Tuipolotu’s opening try. With a double-digit buffer quickly established, the Lions were never really in trouble and the likes of Tadgh Beirne, Maro Itoje and Jack Conan made sure of it with impressive performances in the pack. Some set piece struggles, ill discipline and handling errors let Australia back into the game late, but there was very much a sense that the Lions were in control throughout.

Teams
Australia: 1 James Slipper, 2 David Porecki, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 4 Nick Frost, 5 Will Skelton, 6 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 8 Harry Wilson, 9 Jake Gordon, 10 Tom Lynagh, 11 Harry Potter, 12 Len Ikitau, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 14 Max Jorgensen, 15 Tom Wright. Reserves: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Tom Robertson, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Carlo Tizzano, 22 Tate McDermott, 23 Ben Donaldson.

British & Irish Lions: 1 Andrew Porter, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Tadgh Furlong, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 Ollie Chessum, 6 Tadgh Beirne, 7 Tom Curry, 8 Jack Conan, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 10 Finn Russell, 11 James Lowe, 12 Bundee Aki, 13 Huw Jones, 14 Tommy Freeman, 15 Hugo Keenan. Reserves: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 James Ryan, 20 Jac Morgan, 21 Alex Mitchell, 22 Owen Farrell, 23 Blair Kinghorn.

Joe Schmidt has welcomed back Will Skelton and Rob Valetini, with the pair being rushed back into the starting lineup. Bringing much-needed power and ball-carrying ability to the pack after struggling to crack the gain line last week, Skelton and Valetini’s respective inclusions cannot be understated. Dave Porecki starts at hooker in place of Matt Faessler, in the only other change to the Wallabies’ starting team.

Andy Farrell has made three changes to his run-on XV, starting in the front row as Andrew Porter takes Ellis Genge’s place at loosehead. In the second row, Ollie Chessum earns a starting spot, replacing the injured Joe McCarthy. Local Melburnian Sione Tuipulotu has been forced out with a hamstring niggle, meaning Bundee Aki starts at second five-eighth. James Ryan, Jac Morgan, Owen Farrell, Blair Kinghorn are the new faces on the bench.

The Verdict
It was very much a game of two halves in the first Test, with the Wallabies working their way into the contest to make things interesting in the final 10 minutes. However, the Lions were never under much pressure and that will be the case again on Saturday at the MCG. Conditions will be cold and slippery in Melbourne, likely making this game a battle of the forwards, and that tips the scales even further in the visitors’ favour. They were clearly the better team in the first Test, with their kicking game and formidable forwards defence offering Australia little, and I expect similar struggles for the Wallabies again on Saturday.

The Prediction
British & Irish Lions by 15

Best
British & Irish Lions -10.5 ($1.90)

Value
British & Irish Lions 11-20 ($3.20)